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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Mar-2011
10-Mar-11 News -- The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya

Web Log - March, 2011

10-Mar-11 News -- The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya

Demand for 'synthetic' financial securities is growing

The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya

The Arab League feels a "sense of urgency" over violence in Libya, and at its meeting on Saturday, it may call for a "no-fly zone" to protect civilians from air strikes by Muammar Gaddafi's forces, according to Bloomberg. Nothing in the news reports indicates that any Arab countries would participate militarily in the no-fly zone, and so one might say that the Arab League is playing a sophisticated version of the game Let's You and Him Fight.

Libya tribes (Spiegel)

Libya tribes (Spiegel)

"The no-fly zone, I think, is now the objective of the international community," according to an Arab League spokesman. "We’ve seen every day the battles are raging and there are more casualties, so I would think that within a week, something might have to be enforced. If we leave this for too long, things will be worse and worse for the people."

Actually, that's not true. The international community is quite split on the question, according to Spiegel. The mood seems to be to adopt the usual technique of dithering as long as possible until some crisis forces a decision. On the one hand, Gaddafi's forces are adopting increasingly brutal measures, and no one wants to see that; but on the other hand, the US and Nato just don't want to get involved in yet a third simultaneous war in a Muslim nation, especially since the no-fly zone might escalate into a ground war.

Thus, you get silly statements from people like European Commission President José Manuel Barroso, who says that Gaddafi's actions are "completely unacceptable," and that he's "part of the problem, not part of the solution." EurActiv quotes him as adding,

"It is time for him to go and give the country back to the people of Libya, allowing democratic forces to chart out a future course. The situation we are seeing in Libya is simply outrageous. We cannot accept this.
I think it is our duty to say to the Arab peoples that we are on their side! From Brussels, I want to specifically say this to the young Arabs that are now fighting for freedom and democracy: 'We are on your side'."

Wow! A statement like that takes your breath away, doesn't it.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton indicated that a no-fly zone was definitely on the table, according to Fox News, but it needs the backing of the international community, especially the United Nations Security Council:

"I think it's very important that this not be a U.S.-led effort, because this comes from the people of Libya themselves.
This doesn't come from the outside. This doesn't come from some Western power or some Gulf country saying this is what you should do, this is how you should live."

Defense Secretary Robert Gates was thought to be opposed to military action in Libya, after some statements that he made last week criticizing "loose talk" about such a move. But Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters on Tuesday that Gates "has not staked out opposition to any particular course of action," according to the LA Times.

Last week, it was hoped that Gaddafi would step down as Libya's leader, thus putting an end to the crisis. It now appears that he's going to "fight till the last bullet," as his son promised a couple of weeks ago. Since Gaddafi will undoubtedly continue to use air power against the rebels and civilians, it appears likely that, sooner or later, the US and Nato will stumble into military action in Libya.

Apparently Gaddafi is worried about that too. Nato ministers are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to discuss imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, with or without a United Nations resolution, according to the Telegraph.

On Wednesday, Gaddafi sent envoys to Cairo and Brussels carrying messages to the Arab League and Nato, respectively, to try to head off any military action. Unfortunately, the messages will probably only serve to aggravate the people he's trying to soothe, and may increase the probability of military intervention. Still, it's unlikely that the Nato ministers will recommend anything more than applying some kind of band aid to the situation, for the time being.

In both the global financial and geopolitical areas, the survivors of WW II were well aware how small problems can spiral out of control into major crises and wars.

However, the experience since WW II is that small problems tend to disappear by themselves, without causing much damage. Hence, when a small problem occurs, international officials apply band aids, in order to supply a temporary solution, until the problem disappears by itself. The band aid itself may do harm or be harmless, but either way, the resolution of the problem is postponed, and the crisis is worse when it finally occurs.

Listening to various commentators, my sense is that it's generally assumed that the various Arab "revolutions" going on around the Mideast will soon peter out, and things will return to "normal."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing just the opposite. Violence is growing in Libya. There have been clashes between Muslims and Coptic Christians in Cairo. Muslim extremists have burned dozens of churches in Ethiopia. Anti-government demonstrations and violence is growing in Yemen. Iran's government is becoming increasingly split and divided. Tensions are growing between Iran and the Arab countries. And Saudi Arabia has a "day of rage" scheduled for Friday. And the underlying causes haven't changed, especially the continuing rise in food prices that are driving large populations into poverty.

What we're seeing is a trend toward growing instability in the Mideast during a generational Crisis era, at a time when the Generational Dynamics prediction is that there'll be a new Mideast war re-fighting the 1948 war between Israelis and Arabs.

This trend may not continue, but if it does, then the region may be at full-scale war within a few months.

World Conflict Risk

World Conflict Risk

The next question is: When does this regional war threaten to become a world war? That would be when the U.S. or Nato gets involved (as we might do in Libya), or when Israel gets involved.

It's interesting to note that as the various "revolutions" occur around the Arab world today, al-Qaeda is almost completely irrelevant, almost as if it didn't exist. This was particularly evident, for example, in a set of demands presented by the "coordinators of the Muslim Brotherhood youth revolution" last month in Egypt. The revolutionary demands, translated by MEMRI, don't even mention the U.S. or Israel, let alone jihad.

It's possible that al-Qaeda will succeed in its objective of creating a Sunni Muslim Arab country on the model of Iran's Great Islamic Revolution. But it's also possible, in the chaos of a regional ethnic and religious war, that, except for the 9/11 attack, jihadism will turn out to be just a footnote to the coming world war.

Additional links

Investors are increasingly demanding a new form of "synthetic" financial instrument that are backed by US corporate junk bonds in the same way that the CDOs that played a major part in the credit bubble were backed by residential mortgages. As we keep saying, the same people whose fraud caused the last crisis are still in the same jobs, committing new forms of fraud. Financial Times (Access).

Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is increasingly downcast, because of Israel's poor international image. His concerns are confirmed by a BBC poll showing that Israel has one of the worst public images of any country. As a result, Netanyahu is preparing to lay out a plan for the phased creation of a Palestinian state. The National (UAE)

As he has several times in the past, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas is hinting at resignation, if an independent Palestinian state is not established by September. Ma'an News Agency

Saudi Arabia's foreign minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal says that they will not allow any foreign intervention into the affairs of their country. "We’ll cut off the fingers of those who try to interfere in our internal matters and we reject dictates from any foreign party, be it small or big. We’ll also reject any move that would undermine the Kingdom’s sovereignty," he said. He was apparently referring to Iran. Arab News

Our robot overlords will walk like us--and among us. Fast Company

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Mar-11 News -- The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Mar-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Mar-2011 10-Mar-11 News -- The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Mar-2011
10-Mar-11 News -- The U.S. and Nato stumble toward military intervention in Libya