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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Mar-2011
13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya

Web Log - March, 2011

13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya

Government payouts make up more than a third of US wages

Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya

Convoy of rebel fighters in Libya (AFP)

Convoy of rebel fighters in Libya (AFP)

An emergency meeting of the Arab League on Saturday passed a unanimous resolution demanding a no-fly zone over Libya, to protect the civilians in Libya, at the time of a "very bloody situation." The Telegraph quotes the official statement as saying, "The Arab League has officially requested the United Nations Security Council to impose a no-fly zone against any military action against the Libyan people."

The White House hailed the request as an "important step," according to the Washington Post. The White House statement says that now there's a clear international message that the violence in Libya must stop.

The Arab League vote fulfills one of the major conditions imposed by the European Union before they would agree to a no-fly zone. (See "12-Mar-11 News -- Europeans split on recommending a military no-fly zone over Libya.")

At the emergency EU summit on Friday, the British and French favored establishing a no-fly zone, but the Germans strongly opposed it. The final statement said, "The European council expresses its deep concern about attacks against civilians, including from the air. In order to protect the civilian population, member states will examine all necessary options, provided there is demonstrable need, a clear legal basis and support from the region."

The Arab League vote provides the necessary "support from the region," and Gaddafi's tanks and air strikes provide the "demonstrable need," especially as Libya's armed forces appear to be recapturing cities lost in the east.

All that's now required is a "clear legal basis." For that, the ambassador from Lebanon, the only Arab country currently represented on the UN Security Council, will request an emergency meeting, and submit a draft resolution approving a no-fly zone. Russia and China usually veto such resolutions, but in this case it's thought that they will simply abstain, allowing the resolution to pass.

If and when that happens, the last political obstacle to the establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya will presumably be eliminated.

I watched much of the Arab League press conference on al-Jazeera, and here are some interesting things that I heard that are not being widely reported in the media:

Question: Will any Arab states cooperate militarily with the no-fly zone, such as by permitting their soil to be used as an air base? Answer: The Arab League did not discuss this question. Whether any Arab state cooperates is up to the individual Arab state.

Although Western forces are being asked to establish a no-fly zone, no foreign intervention is permitted in Libya.
The Arab League will meet on a regular basis, and may at any time rescind its request, depending on the situation.
The no-fly zone is just a "preventative measure," and will end when the crisis in Libya ends.

Several days ago, I suggested that the Arab League is playing a sophisticated version of the game Let's You and Him Fight. That seems to be all the more true today.

All in all, this appears to be an approaching catastrophe.

Police in Yemen fire live bullets on protesters, killing three

In a pre-dawn Saturday raid, Yemen's security forces fired live bullets and teargas at pro-democracy protesters in the capital, Sanaa, where thousands were camped out for the past month to demand the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had been in power for 32 years. Three protesters were killed, according to AP.

In an interview on Saturday, the US ambassador to Yemen, Gerald M. Feierstein, said that the unrest is in a "dangerous" phase, according to AFP. "Of course we believe that the uncertainty and instability is helpful to Al-Qaeda and some of the extremist groups," he said. Yemen is the headquarters of Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Looking at the Mideast as a whole, there is little sign that the violent confrontations in Arab countries are leveling off. The Generational Dynamics prediction is that the Mideast is headed for a new war between Arabs and Jews, refighting the genocidal war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel in 1948.

With Yemen speeding toward an internal conflict, and the West speeding toward war in Libya, we may be seeing some real action before long.

Additional links

Government payouts -- including Social Security, Medicare and unemployment insurance -- make up more than a third of total wages and salaries of the U.S. population. This figure will increase as Boomers retire. CNBC

With China's aggressive claims to the Spratly and Paracel islands in the South China Sea (see "11-Aug-10 News -- US and Vietnam conduct naval exercises in South China Sea"), several south Asian nations are forming an alliance to create a common front to dispute China's claims. Asia Sentinel

The regions of Japan most affected by Friday's earthquake have about $300-700 billion of insured property. Not all property was damaged, of course, and analysts are estimating $10-50 billion in insurance payouts. Wall Street Journal (Access).

Protesters in Germany have been demanding an end to the use of nuclear power in Germany for a long time, but the Japanese nuclear plant meltdown is refueling the protests. On Saturday, protesters formed a 40,000 person human chain around a nuclear power plant. Deutsche-Welle

China has 13 sets of nuclear power installations in operation, and many more under development, and will not change its plans because of the nuclear power problems in Japan. Xinhua

On March 19 we'll see a "supermoon" -- a full moon which is near its point of closest approach to the earth. However, it's completely unrelated to the earthquake in Japan. Live Science

For math geeks: What pi sounds like. College Humor

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-Mar-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Mar-2011 13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya

Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya

Police in Yemen fire live bullets on protesters, killing three

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Mar-2011
13-Mar-11 News -- Arab League unanimously requests a no-fly zone over Libya