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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Mar-2011
28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement

Web Log - March, 2011

28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement

China's food imports keep rising, while exports fall

Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement

In the last couple of days, rebels have been sweeping towards Tripoli, capturing or recapturing one town after another -- Ajdabiya, Brega, Uqayla, Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad, according to the BBC. Sirte is still a Gaddafi stronghold, while Misrata is the scene of bitter fighting.

Libya military actions - March 26 (BBC)

Libya military actions - March 26 (BBC)

However, no one is doubting that the rebels were successful only because of the air strikes provided by the US-led coalition and operation "Odyssey Dawn," based on authorization last week by the UN Security Council, according to AP. Al-Jazeera on Sunday showed rows of tanks along the coast road demolished by coalition missiles.

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made the rounds of the Sunday morning news talk shows, appearing on every one (but not permitted to appear on Fox News Sunday -- apparently the war is still going on).

Here are the excerpts from Face the Nation that I found most interesting:

"BOB SCHIEFFER: Well, let’s talk about Libya a little then. We have-- the U.N. resolution is in place. It’s established a no-fly zone. NATO is going to take over the operations there. But it does not call for regime change. And the President has said that Mister Mac-- Qaddafi has to go. That seems a bit contradictory.
ROBERT GATES: Well, I don’t think so. I think you-- what you’re seeing is the difference between a military mission and a policy objective. The military mission is very limited and restricted to the establishment of the no-fly zone and for humanitarian purposes to prevent Qaddafi from being used to his armed forces to slaughter his own people. That’s it. And-- and, one of the things that I think is central is you don’t in a military campaign set as a mission or a goal something you’re not sure you can achieve. And if we’ve learned anything over the past number of years, regime change is very complicated. And-- and can be very expensive and can take a long time. And so I think the key here was establishing a military mission that was achievable was achievable on a limited period of time and that could be sustained.
...
BOB SCHIEFFER: What-- what would be an acceptable outcome? You want him out. But would you be satisfied if the country wound up partitioned or something of that nature?
HILLARY CLINTON: I think it’s too soon to predict that. I mean one of the reasons why we are forming a political contact group in London this coming week is because we want to get a unified political approach just as we have forged a unified military approach. And as-- as both Bob and I have said, there are many ways that this could move toward the-- the end state. If you think about what happened in the nineties, you know, it-- it took a while for Milosevic to leave but you could see his days were numbered even though he wasn’t yet out of office. And so, there’s a lot of ways that this could unfold. What is clear is that Qaddafi himself is losing ground."

This is very interesting. I don't believe that I've heard an argument like this before. It makes a virtue out of not having an objective for the Libyan intervention. I actually have some sympathy for this argument, but it seems strange to hear it, after hearing for years that every military action should have clearly defined objective.

The other bit of very strange news on Sunday was that command for the entire operation was to be turned over to Nato. You'll recall that it had already been decided that implementation of the "no-fly zone" was to be commanded by Nato, so what was new on Sunday is that Nato will also command the part of the mission where fighter jets go into Libya and blow up Gaddafi's tanks and troops.

Or, at least that's what we assume the agreement means, based on the following description from NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, according to CNN:

"Our goal is to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas under threat of attack from the Gadhafi regime. NATO will implement all aspects of the U.N. resolution. Nothing more, nothing less."

The problem with all this is Turkey. It was just three days ago that a French fighter jet destroyed a Libyan air force plane that was violating the no-fly zone. It was destroyed by a French air-to-ground missile, just after it landed, according to the Guardian.

Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan vitriolically attacked French president Nicolas Sarkozy:

"I wish that those who only see oil, gold mines and underground treasures when they look in [Libya's] direction, would see the region through glasses of conscience from now on."

Thus, it's not surprising that the announcement of Nato command on Sunday conspicuously did not provide any details of what will be permitted.

Before today, Erdogan was bitterly opposed to Nato command, because it would mean that Turkish forces might be used against the Libyans. But on Sunday, Erdogan demanded Nato command, so that Turkey could influence the course of the action. The Guardian quotes him as follows:

"We have been opposed to any unilateral action and we could never accept appeals such as that by the French minister for a new crusade. But for Turkey, it's out of the question to shoot at Libyan people or drop bombs on the Libyan people. Turkey's role will be to withdraw from Libya as soon as possible [and] restore the unity and integrity of the country based on the democratic demands of the people.
[It's vital that] this deployment should not be carried out for Libya's oil. Of course there will be a price for these actions and no one can guarantee that Libya won't have to pay a price. ...
I'm afraid we could see another Afghanistan or a second Iraq emerging. When western forces entered Afghanistan nearly 10 years ago, people were talking of it being over in days, and people said the same in Iraq. But a million have died and a civilisation has as good as collapsed. We don't want to see a similar picture in Libya."

It's hard for me, at least, to see how all this is going to be sorted out. I agree with those commentators who say that Gaddafi will never agree to back down, since he's obviously enjoying himself right now, playing the international victim.

President Obama has announced that he will give a televised speech on Monday evening. Perhaps then we'll know everything.

China bitterly attacks Libya military intervention

China could have vetoed the UN resolution authorizing the Libya military intervention, but was talked into abstaining through the charms of two women, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and UN Ambassador Susan Rice. But now the Chinese appear to regret this action, if we're to judge from the following, appearing in the state-run media Xinhua:

"The ongoing West-led "Odyssey Dawn" military operation against Libya, which was launched on March 19, apparently is adding fuel to the fire of the Libyan crisis instead of bringing the light of "dawn" to the North African country.
The operation, dominated by Western powers including France, Britain, the United States and Italy, has caused huge civilian casualties, building and infrastructure damage and hundreds of thousands of refugees. It has escalated the Libyan conflict, which started in mid-February.
It apparently has overstepped the authorization of the UN resolution on Libya adopted on March 17, raised questions and triggered disturbance in the region and around the world at large. ...
Meanwhile, the operation was initiated under the pretext of "humanitarian" assistance and protecting Libyan civilians, but the results, ironically, turned out to be more civilian deaths and a deteriorating humanitarian crisis.
Libyan authorities said over 100 civilians had been killed by the air strikes, and the UN Refugee Agency said over 350,000 Libyan refugees had fled the country up to Wednesday. ...
In Homer's glorious ancient Greek epic poem "The Odyssey," the Greek hero Odysseus, after the fall of the Troy city, finally managed to return home and accomplished his long-cherished dream after a 10-year arduous trek.
However, the West-led Odyssey Dawn operation is complicating and worsening the situation in Libya and bringing about more sufferings to the Libyan people. The real "dawn" for the Libyan people, alleged as the operation's aim, apparently is still far, far away."

Imagine that - a Beijing blogger quoting Homer!

Additional links

China's corn imports and exports (WSJ)

China's corn imports and exports (WSJ)

A high level agricultural official, Chen Xiwen, is criticizing China's policy of demanding that each year's grain harvest be larger than the previous year's setting a new record each year. "Chasing ever-higher output levels may mean over-fertilization and unsafe agriculture," said Chen, indirectly referencing the Law of Diminishing Returns. China's grain imports have risen substantially in recent years, while exports have fallen. "China used to be the world's largest soybean producer, now it's the world's largest soybean importer," said Chen. Wall Street Journal (Access)

12 more protesters were killed on Sunday by Syria's army, after two days of fierce anti-government protests in the port city of Latakia. Iran, which considers Syria an ally, is portraying Syria's protesters as "agitators." But Iran has spoken out in support of protesters in Bahrain, Yemen, Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. Of course, Iran's government has never had a kind word for peaceful protesters at home. Guardian

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Mar-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Mar-2011 28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement

Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement

China bitterly attacks Libya military intervention

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Mar-2011
28-Mar-11 News -- Libya's rebels sweep towards Tripoli, as Nato reaches some mysterious agreement