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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Mar-2011
29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise

Web Log - March, 2011

29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise

This 'catastrophe' will affect the uprising in the capital, Sanaa

Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise

On Monday, more than 100 people were killed, and dozens injured, from an explosion in a weapons factory in Abyan province in Yemen, according to CNN.

Yemen (CS Monitor)

Yemen (CS Monitor)

There is a bizarre story behind this explosion.

On Sunday, around 30 hooded gunmen stormed that weapons factory, as well as some other sites in the region, according to VOA. They drove off in four vehicles with cases of weapons.

On Monday, local residents were ransacking and looting the factory. It's believed that one of them lit a cigarette, triggering the explosion.

The explosion has become part of the politics of the "Arab Revolution" that's occurring in Sanaa, the country's capital. For almost two months, tens of thousands of demonstrators have been protesting to demand that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down, after 38 years in power.

The outcome of this uprising is crucially important for the United States, since Saleh is a close ally in fighting the war on terror, especially since Yemen became the headquarters for al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in 2009.

In a remarkable change in assessment last year, CIA analysts now see AQAP as a greater threat to US security than the core al-Qaeda group in Pakistan and Afghanistan. (See "27-Aug-10 News -- U.S. considering escalating military role in Yemen") The fear is that if Saleh steps down, then he may be replaced by someone more sympathetic to al-Qaeda. Even worse, the country may descend into a civil war that permits an al-Qaeda takeover.

Opposition leaders have been accusing Saleh of playing the "al-Qaeda card," according to News Yemen, by using the possible rise of al-Qaeda as a means of discrediting the opposition.

Thus, here have accusations and counter-accusations regarding the weapons factory. Abyan province is the biggest stronghold of AQAP, and the pro-Saleh side is saying that the gunmen were al-Qaeda militants who will perpetrate more crimes of this type, if Saleh is forced to step down and the country becomes more unstable.

The anti-Saleh side is hinting that the Saleh government pulled back its security forces from the weapons factory on purpose, in order to create a crisis that would benefit Saleh. Whether the gunmen were al-Qaeda militants or "ordinary" militants is also called into question.

Whatever the truth about the militants, the subsequent explosion was not anticipated by anyone.

One doctor quoted by the Associated Press says, "This accident is a true catastrophe, the first of its kind. There are so many burned bodies. I can't even describe the situation.”

A "catastrophe" of this kind is certain to have an effect on the growing political instability of Yemen. But it remains to be seen which side will benefit, as the truth comes out about the weapons factory.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Mar-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Mar-2011 29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise

Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Mar-2011
29-Mar-11 News -- Yemen weapons factory explosion raises fears of al-Qaeda rise