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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Apr-2011
3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results

Web Log - April, 2011

3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results

Is Russia still preparing to fight World War II?

Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results

If you're a guy looking for a wife, you might wish to consider a trip to Russia. Preliminary results of the 2010 census show that Russia's population is 142.9 million, 2.2 million less than in 2002. Furthermore, only 46.3% are male, while 53.7% are female, according to the Moscow Times.

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev speaks to a census worker (Moscow Times)

Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev speaks to a census worker (Moscow Times)

The growing gender imbalance is due primarily to "the high incidence of premature death among men." A Moscow expert quoted by RFERL explains the plunging population as follows:

"The demographic process today -- and I mean the decline in population -- is fantastically powerful, and it is connected not only with the allocation or nonallocation of budget resources, but also with the problem of culture. We have become a hedonistic consumer culture and, as is always the case in these situations, the birthrate is in decline. This is also happening in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the United States."

You can tell this guy is a politician, if he believes that government misallocation of resources is causing a massive decline in birthrate.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is actually the flip side of the postwar "baby boom." During the generational Crisis era of the 1930s and 1940s, and again in today's generational Crisis era, couples are extremely anxious about finances, terrorism, xenophobia, and war, and are marginally less willing to bring a new baby into the world. This is particularly true in Russia, which has gone through one crisis after another since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Once the approaching world war has run its course, then there'll be a new postwar baby boom, and the cycle will repeat.

A big reason for the the high incidence of premature death among men is alcoholism is widespread alcholism, according to BCM (Moscow).

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has spoken out on alcoholism, and is recommending a package of measures to combat it. "You know my attitude to the alcoholization of the population: we have, of course, to fight that. But there is no simple, linear solutions," he said.

Both alcoholism and the population decline are taking their toll on Russia's army.

Russia requires an annual conscription of about 555,000, according to ISN (Zurich). There will be 11.6 million men of conscription age, from 18 to 27 years, in Russia this year, which should be plenty. However, when you deduct those found to be unfit for service, those with a college exemption, and those dodging the draft, there are only 1.7 million men left. That's not all. 70% of those drafted are 18 years old. Only 855,000 men will turn 18 in 2011, 34.5% fewer than in 2002.

In fact, the draft has become so unpopular that some 200,000 younr Russians avoided military service in the fall of 2010, according to Paul Goble. Moscow can only save the situation by provinding a massive infusion of new funds for the armed forces.

In particular, one proposal is to pay soldiers an amount equal to half the amount given to mothers to encourage having children. That would be something like $6,000 for each soldier, for a year of service. If that step is not taken, then Moscow will have to find a way to use more force to push people into the military.

The sophistication of America's military intervention in Libya has exposed even more serious problems with Russia's army, according to Chief of General Staff Army-General Nikolai Makarov, quoted by Jamestown. Makarov is saying that Russia still has a World War II army:

"Last week Serdyukov’s first deputy, the Chief of General Staff Army-General Nikolai Makarov gave a much more somber assessment of the present state of the Russian military addressing the annual session of the Russian Military Science Academy – an influential semi-official think tank. Makarov complained that Russian military analysts continue to base international military balances on gross inventories of tanks, guns, jets and infantry manpower, while Western information technologies of data distribution, command and control are largely ignored. The war with Iraq in 1991 should have awakened, according to Makarov, the Russian military to new ways of conducting warfare, but it did not. Makarov contended there were some 11,200 generals and officers with military science degrees serving in Russia’s military academies continuing to research World War II (The Great Patriotic War) tactics that are practically useless today (VPK, March 30).
Twenty years since 1991 have been wasted, stated Makarov. The Russian military continued to prepare mass armies armed with outdated weapons. Makarov commended the US-led coalition’s use of modern intelligence-gathering, command and control systems and precision-guided weapons against the Russian-armed forces of Colonel Gaddafi, while Russian forces do not have such capabilities or an understanding of how to use them. Makarov complained that General Staff officers were forced to hastily put together military reforms plans without any help from Russia’s numerous active service military theoreticians and were often blundering by using “trial and error methods.” To effectively meet new threats Russia needs new ideas, weapons and soldiers (VPK, March 30)."

All of these issues point to increasingly serious problems in Russia's armed forces.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Apr-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Apr-2011 3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Apr-2011
3-Apr-11 News -- Russia's army crippled by alcoholism and grim census results