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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-2011
9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus

Web Log - April, 2011

9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus

Debka: Breach between U.S. and Saudi Arabia deepens

Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus

The chances of a new Israeli war with Gaza are much higher today, a day after a Kornet anti-tank missile launched from Gaza struck a school bus southen Israel, injuring the driver and critically injuring a 16 year old boy. Hamas claimed responsibility.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Benjamin Netanyahu

In the past, militants in Gaza have been launching into southern Israel Qassam missiles, which are simple home-made missles with no guidance system. These missiles landed pretty much at random locations, and only occasionally harmed someone.

What makes the school bus attack different is that the Kornet missile does have a guidance system, and it was apparently deliberately aimed at a location where the bus would be parked. The missile attack was followed by numerous rocket and mortar attacks.

This attack has infuriated the Israelis. President Shimon Peres said that "Gaza has become a terrorist state," according to a statement by Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the attack on children "crossed a line" and warned that "whoever tries to harm and murder children will pay with their life," according to the Associated Press.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stepped up their air attacks on Gaza on Friday, killing nine Palestinians, including some civilians, according to Reuters. Israel promised to teach Hamas a lesson for the attack on the school bus on Thursday.

The violence is increasing to levels not seen since Cast Lead, the three-week war between Israel and Gaza that ended in early 2009. It is widely feared that a new "Cast Lead II" war is quickly approaching. Each side claims that it doesn't want war, but each side has to respond to the attacks by the other side, and full scale war may be the result. Hizbollah would join Hamas in a war against Israel, and has a 20,000 missile arsenal ready to be used, according to a Wikileaks cable quoted by the Jerusalem Post.

Because of the widespread international hostility directed at Israel, it's possible that Hamas sees increased violence with Israel as a no-lose proposition, since Israel will be blamed, no matter what happens.

The violence occurs at the same time that a diplomatic track is being pursued by the Palestinians to gain U.N. recognition of a Palestinian state by September. The Palestinians have completely given up on the "Mideast peace process," which has been dead as a doornail for some time anyway, and they blame Israel's policy of building settlements in east Jerusalem for the collapse of the peace process.

Thus, they've been taking a number of steps to prepare for statehood. The plan took a big step forward this week, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report praising Palestinian fiscal reform, and declaring that Palestinian financial institutions are ready for statehood, according to Ma'an News.

An even more important issue is reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, a requirement for a Palestinian state.

Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa announced Wednesday that he will help Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and that the Arab League will help mediate a reconciliation, according to Al-Arabiya.

According to an analysis by Debka, Egypt would help with reconciliation as follows:

"[T]he new Egyptian leaders are willing to help negotiate Hamas' reconciliation with Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah on the following basis: Hamas would accept the two-state solution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict but Egypt would not press for the second part of the formula endorsed by Washington and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, namely that "the two states live alongside each other in peace and security."
This amended formula would leave Hamas and the other radical Palestinian organizations free to continue their violent campaign of "resistance" against Israel while making peace with the rival Fatah and gaining a Palestinian state on the West Bank.
These days, Hamas is sure it is on a win-win course and has little to fear from stepping up its war on Israel until it gets what it wants."

This would be an ambitious path for Hamas, but it's far from clear that it can be achieved. A spokesman for Hamas is quoted by the Jerusalem Post as saying that Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas does not actually want reconciliation. According to an analysis by Mideast Monitor, Abbas wants to quickly reach agreement on a timetable for holding parliamentary and presidential elections, while Hamas is reluctant to risk its control of Gaza.

The same factors that drove Hamas and Fatah to war in 2007 still exist, and it's just as likely as the two factions will have another war as reconcile.

And it's not clear what the outcome will be if the United Nations is asked to create a Palestinian state which may immediately be at war with Israel.

September is still a very long way off. In the meantime, violence between Israel and Gaza is increasing, and there may be a war long before the United Nations has an opportunity to vote on any proposal.

Debka: Breach between U.S. and Saudi Arabia deepens

According to an analysis in the Debka subscriber-only newsletter, forwarded to me by a subscriber, the recent visit by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah failed in its attempt to improve Saudi-US relations.

What triggered the visit was word that the Saudis were cancelling a $60 billion order for American military hardware, and that they plan to shop elsewhere for lower prices, possibly from China or Russia.

Relations between King Abdullah and President Barack Obama have been cold ever since Obama turned his back on former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak. Abdullah was furious that Obama had thrown Mubarak under the bus so quickly, and has not forgiven him yet.

According to the newsletter:

"Abdullah was harshly critical of the US presidential advisers' counsel to the White House to withhold endorsement from Saudi military intervention in Bahrain.
As long as Washington hopes to topple the Bahraini and Saudi kingdoms by promoting pro-democracy revolutions on the Egyptian pattern, why would you expect the Persian Gulf rulers to support America and treat it as an ally? he asked the US defense secretary. ...
King Abdullah explained that once he had realized the Obama administration had no intention of acting in consideration of the security interests of the Saudi and Gulf nations, he resolved to take their affairs into his own hands. He said he now feels free to do what he thinks necessary to advance those interests without resorting to - or even consulting with - Washington.
Gates confirmed that the US did have "evidence" of Iranian meddling in the turmoil besetting Bahrain and other Middle Eastern countries, refuting the Obama administration's public statements denying Iran was a primary factor. But this admission most probably came too late. Abdullah has set his course on a new policy that distances the kingdom from the United States. Even though Gates disagrees with Obama on the Middle East - and especially on military intervention in Libya - the Saudi monarch knows that his time is almost up at the Pentagon."

These events are consistent with the expectation that China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be opposed to America, India and Russia in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.

Additional links

There was another mass demonstration by tens of thousands of protesters in Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, on Friday, after midday prayers, demanding that ousted president Hosni Mubarak and his family be put on trial for alleged corruption. About 2,000 protesters broke away from the mass demonstration and marched to the Israeli Embassey to protest Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip. AP

Now that Portugal has asked for a bailout, its troubles are far from over. European Union finance ministers will approve the bailout, but only if Portugal's political parties agree to a package of severe austerity measures and reforms. The austerity measures to be demanded are much harsher than those proposed last month by prime minister Jose Socrates, but his milder measures were rejected, leading to a collapse of the government. Portugal has new elections planned for June, and it's far from clear that the candidates will be able to agree to accept the EU's harsh austerity measures in the middle of an election. Independent

In 2008, China experienced a food disaster almost beyond comprehension. Chinese manufacturers of milk products added a chemical call melamine to their products. Melamine is poison, but it gives the appearance of high protein levels to government food quality inspectors. (See "A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster.") Now there's a new scandal, where three children have died from drinking tainted milk with nitrates, once again to give the appearance of high protein levels. VOA

Japan's nuclear crisis is a boon for South Korea's high tech companies. Japan's position as supplier of devices such as memory chips or LCD screens has been put into question by the nuclear disaster, and South Korean firms are planning to take up the slack. CS Monitor

Thousands of migrants have been fleeing Tunisia and landing in Italy, hoping to relocate to Europe. France is preparing to shut down its border with Italy, in order to prevent the migrants from entering France. EurActiv

It was another bloody Friday in Syria. Anti-government protests broke out in several locations across the country. Witnesses said that Syrian security forces killed at least 17 protesters. VOA

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (9-Apr-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-2011 9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus

Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus

Debka: Breach between U.S. and Saudi Arabia deepens

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Apr-2011
9-Apr-11 News -- Gaza violence escalates after anti-tank missile strikes school bus