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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Apr-2011
12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants

Web Log - April, 2011

12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants

Libya's rebels reject African Union cease fire plan

Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants

Germany is already at odds with the "Club Med" nations, since Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy are considered to be profligate spenders requiring bailouts, in contrast to the disciplined savers in Germany. And the anger is growing anyway, because it's becoming increasingly clear that Greece needs a new bailout (see below), and the Germans are absolutely bitterly opposed to giving them another euro.

Migrants protesting in a temporary shelter on Lampedusa Island (AFP)

Migrants protesting in a temporary shelter on Lampedusa Island (AFP)

Now there's a new bitter dispute over immigrants from northern Africa. Some 25,000 people, mostly from Tunisia, have arrived on the Italian island of Lampedusa, usually in overloaded fishing boats. Recently, migrants from Libya have been arriving as well. Their purpose is to gain entrance to Italy and the European Union to seek jobs, according to Reuters. The problem has overwhelmed Italy's resources, and so the Italians requested help from the EU and from neighboring countries.

When the EU refused, Italy decided to use a "dirty trick," according to Der Spiegel. Under the EU treaties, Italy is allowed to issue travel visas to visitors, allowing them to travel freely around large parts of Europe. And so Italy plans to issue 25,000 travel visas to the 25,000 migrants

This has infuriated the Germans, the French, and other EU neighbors.

France feels particularly vulnerable, since it already has a large Tunisian community, and many of the migrants will be trying to join their relatives. Thus, France has already announced that it will shut down its border with Italy, according to EurActiv. The French authorities are already sending back some migrants who try to cross its border from Italy.

The German interior minister simply said that the migrants are "Italy's problem," according to The Local (Germany). "Italy must sort out its refugee problem itself," he said.

To that, Roberto Maroni, Italy's interior minister, said on Monday that his country had to "consider if it is still worth being part of the EU," according to EU Observer. "It's fine when Italy contributes to euro bail-outs, to wars, but on this very specific issue of helping us out, EU states are absolutely not willing to show solidarity."

It's fun to watch this war of words, but this is clearly a battle that's only going to grow, since the surge of migrants from north Africa is only going to grow.

Germans: Greece might need another bailout

Ever since Greece was given a $158 billion bailout last May, it's been perfectly obvious to anyone who can count that the bailout would allow Greece to postpone default by making some debt payments, but would not solve any structural problems, and that default was going to come anyway.

Still, the norm today among politicians, analysts and journalists is to lie, and so the official word by all European officials has always been that Greece's austerity program would allow it to escape default.

So it was a surprise when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble broke the code of silence this weekend, and suggested that Greece might need another bailout, or else it would have to restructure its debt (which is equivalent to a default). According to Bloomberg, Schaeuble's statement conflicts with official assertions that Greece is on the right track.

However, Reuters reports that officials within the Greek government are increasingly talking about the best ways to default. Options include delaying payments or reducing interest payments.

However, any kind of default by Greece could cause a chain reaction. Many countries' banks are heavily invested in Greek bonds, and so a Greek default would risk pushing banks in other countries into bankruptcy.

And all this comes at a time when Portugal has requested a $114 billion bailout, after spending months saying that no bailout would ever be needed. (See "7-Apr-11 News -- Portugal requests bailout after disastrous bond auction.")

And it also comes at a time when the people of Iceland voted to reject an agreement to repay €4 billion, as we reported yesterday. According to EuroIntelligence, "This is the second No vote on the Icesave scheme, and has met with severe disappointment by British and Dutch ministers. For us in the eurozone, the interesting question is whether the popular uprising in Iceland might be replicated in the eurozone, especially in Ireland, where a majority of the population wants the bank bondholders to share the costs."

Like the migrant problem, the debt problem is only going to grow, and positions are hardening all around.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Europe is due for another major war. People who find this statement surprising should recall that Europe has had wars regularly for millennia, the latest one having ended only a short 66 years ago. When the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957, it was with the intention of creating a "European project" that would guarantee that there would never be another European war. But as the the migrant problem grows and the debt problem grows, we can see that nothing has really changed, and that Europe is experiencing the same problems that it always has. All that's needed is for something to light the fuse.

Libya's rebels reject African Union cease fire plan

The African Union presented a cease fire plan on Monday and proclaimed that Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi had accepted it. But when the AU officials traveled to Benghazi to sell the plan to the rebels, it was soundly rejected, because it didn't require Gaddafi to step down immediately.

The Telegraph quotes Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary general, as saying that three conditions must be met: "It must be credible, including an effective protection of the civilian population. It must be supervised and controlled effectively. Finally, it must facilitate a political process aiming to implement the necessary political reforms to satisfy the legitimate demands of the Libyan population."

So the situation is this: Gaddafi will never voluntarily step down, and the rebels will never agree to a ceasefire until Gaddafi steps down. There doesn't seem to be an end in sight.

San Francisco to Paris in 2 minutes - by way of the Northern Lights

For today's entertainment, we have a mind-blowing video by someone who shot a photo every two miles or so between take-off in San Francisco and landing in Paris. Part of the show is some shots of the Northern Lights.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Apr-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Apr-2011 12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants

Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants

Germans: Greece might need another bailout

Libya's rebels reject African Union cease fire plan

San Francisco to Paris in 2 minutes - by way of the Northern Lights

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Apr-2011
12-Apr-11 News -- Italy fights EU over Tunisian migrants