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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2011
26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems

Web Log - April, 2011

26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems

North Koreans may be preparing new provocation

Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems

The South Korean military has deployed multiple rocket launcher systems on two northwestern islands that are near the maritime boundary with North Korea, according to unnamed government sources of the Korea Herald. North Korea launched an artillery attack on one of the islands, Yeonpyeong Island, last November, killing four South Koreans including two civilians.

L-to-R: Mary Robinson, Jimmy Carter, Dr. Gro Brundtland and Martti Ahtisaari -- Carter and 'The Elders'

L-to-R: Mary Robinson, Jimmy Carter, Dr. Gro Brundtland and Martti Ahtisaari -- Carter and 'The Elders'

In addition, the military plans to establish a special military command in June, which is dedicated to protecting the border islands from possible North Korean provocations including amphibious infiltrations by its special warfare troops.

If the North Koreans follow their usual pattern, then they'll issue a few days worth of hysterical accusations that the South Koreans and the Americans are warmongers, while saying that their own artillery attack on Yeonpyeong Island, as well as the sinking of the warship Cheonan last May, were fully justified.

In fact, and unnamed North Korean force is quoting a top army official as saying, "A tense situation is being created on the Korean Peninsula, where nobody knows when a war could break out," according to Chosun. This follows reports that leader Kim Jong-il has recently visited "Building No. 3," in order to plan future provocations with the agency in charge of armed provocations against the South.

This comes at a time when former President Jimmy Carter is leading a delegation of "The Elders" to North Korea, to encourage Pyongyang to engage in a meaningful dialogue with Seoul and to address the country’s food shortage, according to JoongAng.

"At a time when official dialogue with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea appears to be at a standstill, we aim to see how we may be of assistance in reducing tensions and help the parties address key issues including denuclearization."

Another "Elder," former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, added, "Clearly there is a great level of mistrust and suspicion between North and South Korea. But the stakes are too high to allow this standoff to continue."

It's possible that the starving North Koreans might make some minor concession in order to food aid restarted, after it was discontinued last year because of the Cheonan sinking.

But beyond that, this effort is so completely unrealistic that it's hard to believe that anyone would seriously consider it, but it illustrates how deeply the attitudes of World War II survivors different from attitudes of those growing up after the war.

In addition to Jimmy Carter (born 1924), the members of "The Elders" are former President of Ireland Mary Robinson (born 1944), former Prime Minister of Norway Dr. Gro Brundtland (born 1939), and former President of Finland Martti Ahtisaari (born 1937). The Elders group was formed four years ago by Nelson Mandela (born 1918).

These people all lived through the World War II years of horror, and they've devoted their lives to [[the futile task of]] doing everything possible to keep anything like that from happening again. The Elders group are firmly in the "peace through conciliation" camp for keeping anything like that from happening again, while Presidents like John Kennedy and Ronald Reagan were much more in the "peace through strength" camp.

By contrast, the Boomers and Gen-Xers know absolutely nothing of the horrors of WW II, and so they are much more confrontational, and much more willing to cross red lines that risk war, than the GI and Silent generations that lived through the war.

This is also true of the North and South Koreans. Even though Kim Jong-il (born 1942) was a WW II survivor, almost all the middle and high level managers and commanders that report to him were born after WW II. The same kind of thing is true in South Korea, China, Japan, and other countries.

In this context, the South's permanent deployment of multiple rocket launcher systems has to be regarded as one more step in a confrontational direction. The North Korean army official who said, "A tense situation is being created on the Korean Peninsula, where nobody knows when a war could break out" is probably correct, but since a war will probably break out because of one of North Korea's provocations, they may know more than we do about when a war could break out.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Apr-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2011 26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2011
26-Apr-11 News -- Jimmy Carter's 'Elders' visit N. Korea, as S. Korea deploys multiple rocket launcher systems