	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Apr-2011
28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood

Web Log - April, 2011

28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood

U.S. may end relations with Palestinians if unity government includes Hamas

Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood

Following several weeks of secret Egypt-brokered meetings in Cairo and Damascus, Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announced on Wednesday that they have "reconciled" and that they will form a unity government, according to the Jerusalem Post.

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on March 18

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on March 18

Hamas is the organization that has been governing the Gaza Strip since it defeated Fatah (the military wing of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank) in a 2007 war. However, Hamas is losing control of Gaza, largely because of its own internal complexity, with various wings promoting anything from war with Israel to total peace and coexistence with Israel. (See "16-Apr-11 News -- Killing of Italian activist exposes splits among Gaza militants.")

Fatah negotiator Azzam al-Ahmed said that the two sides have reached agreement on all points of contention, including the make-up of the unity government, fixing a date for presidential and parliamentary elections and restructuring the PLO. Also, the two parties agreed to release each others jailed prisoners.

Hamas' leaders has opposed reconciliation with Fatah since the 2007 war, because they feared losing control of Gaza after they'd won a war to get it. But according to an analysis by YNet, Egypt may have made some concessions to Hamas to convince them to take the deal. Speculatively, the concession might have been to open the border between Gaza and Egypt at the Rafah crossing, so that people and goods can flow freely back and forth.

Fatah and Hamas are pushing the reconciliation process because it's an essential step in preparing for a hoped-for vote by the United Nations General Assembly in September to recognize a Palestinian state unilaterally.

Israeli response

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had already scheduled trips to European capitals soon, followed by an address to the U.S. Congress, to lobby against recognition of a Palestinian state, according to Israel National News.

Netanyahu, along with everyone in the West, was evidently caught by surprise by Wednesday's announcement, and he issued the following statement:

"The Palestinian Authority needs to choose between peace with Israel and peace with Hamas. Peace with both is impossible because Hamas aspires to destroy the State of Israel and says so openly. It fires missiles at our cities; it fires anti-tank rockets at our children.
I think that the very idea of this reconciliation shows the weakness of the Palestinian Authority and causes one to wonder if Hamas will seize control of Judea and Samaria like it seized control of the Gaza Strip.
I hope that the Palestinian Authority chooses correctly, i.e. that it chooses peace with Israel. The choice is in its hands."

Israeli and United States officials on Wednesday did not directly answer questions about whether they would continue to talk to a unity government that contained Hamas, or whether the U.S. will continue to provide billions of dollars in aid to the Palestinian Authority, when unified with Hamas.

Several years ago, the Middle East Quartet (United Nations, Russian Federation, United States, European Union) set the following conditions for recognition of Hamas as a legitimate government:

Recognize the state of Israel and its right to exist;
Renounce violence; and
Honor past agreements signed by the PA and Israel.

Hamas has repeatedly said that it will not agree to any of these conditions.

The Generational Dynamics prediction is that the region is headed for a new war between Arabs and Jews, re-fighting the genocidal war that followed the partitioning of Palestine in 1948 and the creation of the state of Israel. The Arab uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain are causing rapid changes to the Mideast that bring that war closer, and this new reconciliation, if it works, is just one more of those rapid changes. September is still a little more than four months away, but in the Mideast these days, that's an eternity.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Apr-2011) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Apr-2011 28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood

Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood

Israeli response

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Apr-2011
28-Apr-11 News -- Palestinian factions announce surprise 'reconciliation' on path to statehood