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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2011
14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis

Web Log - May, 2011

14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis

Erdogan and Ahmadinejad have very different Mideast strategies

Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis

The warming relations between Turkey and Iran have been troubling to the West, but there is great potential for dispute between the two countries.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

In fact, the basic interests of Ankara and Tehran collide, in some if not most issues, according to an analysis by the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). These colliding interests could lead to disagreements, and in the long run even conflict, between these two major non-Arab powers in the Middle East.

Today's most visible policy difference is in Syria. Both Iran and Turkey would like to see Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stay in power, but for different reasons: Turkey would like to see Assad take "a reformist, positive approach," while Iran wants Assad to resist Israel and strengthen Hezbollah as a proxy against the "Zionist entity."

Libya presents even sharper differences. Turkey is cooperating with Nato's military intervention, while Iran called the Nato intervention "a big stupidity" and predicted "that the NATO-US invasion would throw them to the depth of an abyss," something which the Turks do not wish to hear.

In fact, the uprisings in Syria and Libya are causing a number of foreign policy problems for Turkey in the Arab world, according to Jamestown.

Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has tried to maintain his popularity in the Arab world by taking moderate positions on the Arab uprisings, but that has resulted in some criticisms, because of his slow response. He didn't support Nato's military intervention in Libya at first, but only reversed policy when Muammar Gaddafi's forces became particularly bloody, leading many to believe that Erdogan has no principled position on the Arab uprisings. The situation in Syria is posing an even more difficult dilemma as the Syrian response to its uprising becomes increasingly violent and bloody, risking a flood of Syrian refugees pouring across the border into Turkey.

If Turkey and Iran come to a military confrontation, it will probably be over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Turkey supports a settlement between the Israelis and the Palestinians, while Iran opposes Israel's existence, and is trying its best to prevent a settlement.

In a television interview on Thursday, Erdogan said he considered Hamas as a political party or a resistance movement instead of a terrorist organization, according to Turkish Weekly. He added, "I have exerted great efforts to unite Al Fatah and Hamas over the past years during my term in office and now I am very happy to see that happen. If peace would come to the Middle East, it would start from peace in Palestine."

Another hot spot in Turkey-Iran relations is "Kurdistan," the region in northern Iraq that overflows into both Turkey and Iran. Turkey has been the target of numerous terrorist attacks by the PKK Kurds for years, and Kurdish rebel leader Ocalon is threatening a "big war" with Turkey, according to AP.

Another Kurdish group, the Free Life Party of Iranian Kurdistan, known as PJAK, is considered the Iranian "branch" of the PKK, according to Newsmax. The group is based in guerilla camps in northern Iraq, and Iran has recently moved tanks and artillery close to the guerilla camps, apparently in preparation for military action.

American troops are scheduled to be out of Iraq by the end of this year. The fear is that the American troop withdrawal from Iraq will leave a power vacuum that will be filled by invasions of Kurdish regions by both Turkey and Iran.

The departure of U.S. troops could leave Iraq vulnerable. It cannot yet protect its own airspace, and relies on the U.S. for intelligence-gathering capabilities and logistics and maintenance of its military equipment. For that reason, Iraq's prime minister Nouri al-Maliki is beginning to suggest that American troops should stay past the December 31 deadline, according to the AP.

Other issues where Turkey's interests collide with Iran's are the following, according to FPRI:

Nuclear: The Turks oppose nuclear weapons in the Mideast, and so Iran's nuclear program poses dilemmas for Turkey.

Bahrain: Turkey is being recognized as a strategic partner of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is supporting the Sunni government of Bahrain, while Iran is supporting the Shia opposition.

Leadership of Muslim world: Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is very popular among Muslims (which is not surprising, given Turkey's role in the Ottoman Empire days as leaders of the Muslim world), and is recommending a "Turkish model" to nations with Arab uprisings, instead of the violent path advocated by Iran.

As the two biggest non-Arab Muslim states in the region, Turkey and Iran are more competitors than allies. As the Clash of Civilizations war approaches, each country will eventually be forced to choose a side. It's very unlikely that they'll be on the same side.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-May-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2011 14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis

Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-2011
14-May-11 News -- Syria, Libya and Iraq aggravate the Turkey-Iran axis