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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-2011
16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders

Web Log - May, 2011

16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders

Israel's panicked response is reminiscent of 2006

Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) are going to have to account for their actions on Sunday, after firing on unarmed protesters crossing into Israel from Lebanon, Syria and Gaza, an action that is being described as a violation of international law, according to the Jerusalem Post. Dozens of the protesters, who were violating Israeli sovereignty, were injured, and 10-20 were killed.

Palestinian refugees clash with the Israeli army at the Lebanese-Israeli border (DPA)

Palestinian refugees clash with the Israeli army at the Lebanese-Israeli border (DPA)

Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas said in a televised address that those who were killed are martyrs, according to the Jerusalem Post. "Their precious blood will not be wasted. It was spilt for the sake of our nation's freedom." Hamas called Naqba Day events "a turning point in the Israeli-Arab conflict." Hezbollah condemned the "Israeli aggression on unarmed civilians."

Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Naqba day protesters are opposed to Israel's existence, according to Israel Nation News:

"It is important to note that these events are happening on the anniversary of the establishment of Israel. As the leaders of these violent acts themselves say – their battle is not for the 1967 lines, but rather, against Israel's existence, as they see that day as a disaster which must be rectified. We must keep our eyes open and see the reality, and know who and what we are dealing with."

An analysis by Debka claims that the IDF was almost completely unreprepared for the masses of protesters, especially on the Syrian border. The article points out that the IDF had previously been warned that Syria was planning some action against Israel to divert attention from its own troubles:

"Israeli forces on high alert for Nakba Day, Sunday, May 15, failed to seal three national borders on the Golan, Lebanon and the Gaza Strip against large-scale incursions. Dozens of Syrians and Hizballah invaders were able to overrun the Israeli Golan village of Majd al Shams and hoist Syrian and Palestinian flags in the main square; Hizballah-sponsored Palestinian demonstrators breached the Lebanese-Israeli border and damaged IDF installations; and hundreds of Palestinians battered the Erez crossing from the Gaza Strip.
The interlopers sustained dozens of casualties including fatalities from Israeli fire these events in which Israelis too were injured. In the Gaza sector 40-50 casualties are reported. Lebanon reports five demonstrators killed.
On the Syrian border, Israeli snipers and helicopters belatedly opened fire to halt the thousands attempting to cross the border, but dozens got through to Majd al Shams. Some were killed or injured by Israeli fire. Three Israel civilians were wounded. Israeli tanks were speeded to the Syrian border to halt the incident.
debkafile reports that despite the high IDF border alert for Nakba Day invasions from neighboring Arab countries, Israeli forces were not deployed in sufficient strength on the Golan border, even though debkafile reported Saturday, May 14 that Damascus planned trouble on the border with Israel as a diversion from the rebellion against the Assad regime."

What happened on Sunday is reminiscent of Israel's overreaction in the 2006 Lebanon war with Hizbollah. (See "How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah.")

When the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah began, both sides immediately fought the war in a manner appropriate to their respective generational eras. Hizbollah warriors fought the war in a "cool" Awakening era fashion, launching missiles into Israel during the day, and then returning to their wives in the evening. By contrast, Israel fought the war in a "hot" Crisis era fashion. They panicked when two Israeli soldiers were kidnapped, and went to war in four hours, with no plan, no objective, and no idea what was going on. They then blundered from one objective to the next, until the war finally ended. If Lebanon had also been in a generational Crisis era, then Hizbollah warriors would have crossed the border into Israel and slaughtered Israelis in their homes, possibly triggering a regional and world war.

Panicked response

Sunday's panicked response by Israel appears to be very similar, but this time it's even more dangerous than it was in 2006. With the entire Mideast becoming inflamed with Arab uprisings, and many of the countries in generational Crisis eras, there is a very real possibility that Israel will be blamed for starting a regional war, if one breaks out because of Israel's panic and overreaction.

As September approaches, and the United Nations heads for possible creation of a Palestinian state by international mandate, we can only expect the uprisings to continue, and the tension between Israel and Palestinians to escalate.

Israel's border with Syria is an entirely new front. The border along the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1981 in a move that was not recognized internationally, has been quiet for decades, until Sunday, when four people were killed, according to Reuters.

Sunday's uprisings highlight a more general problem that we haven't heard much about lately -- the position of the Palestinian refugees, whose parents and grandparents were forced to leave their homes because of the 1948 war. There are some four million Palestinian refugees in refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian territories. They are becoming more restive, and they are demanding the "right of return" to their grandparents' former homes, according to Reuters. It's hard for me to see how this can end any way but badly.

As I've been saying for years, the Generational Dynamics prediction is that there will be a new war refighting the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel on May 14, 1948. The trend has been clearly in that direction for years, and the war may not be very far off.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-May-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-2011 16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders

Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders

Panicked response

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-May-2011
16-May-11 News -- Israeli army fires on unarmed protesters crossing three borders