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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Aug-2011
22-Aug-11 World View -- Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party

Web Log - August, 2011

22-Aug-11 World View -- Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party

Hamas and Gaza militant groups agree to ceasefire with Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

* Hamas and Gaza militant groups agree to ceasefire with Israel
* Arab League condemns Israel's attacks on Gaza
* Israeli politicians call for major military action in Gaza
* Egyptian protesters call for expulsion of Israeli ambassador
* Debka: Netanyahu accepts ceasefire to placate Egypt
* Vietnam reverses policy -- forbids anti-China demonstrations
* Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party
* International Criminal Court to prosecute Libya's Saif al-Islam Gaddafi
* What now for Libya?
* Anti-government protesters greet U.N. team visiting Syria
* Turkey's anti-PKK military action in Iraq stirs clashes in Istanbul

Hamas and Gaza militant groups agree to ceasefire with Israel

Hamas official surveys the damage from an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Sunday (Reuters)

Hamas official surveys the damage from an Israeli airstrike in Gaza on Sunday (Reuters)

The Islamic Jihad, and other militant Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip, have agreed on Sunday evening to a ceasefire with in an effort to bring an end to the violence. According to Islamic Jihad official Ahmed Mudalal: "The Islamic Jihad, as well as the rest of the Palestinian factions, are trying to spare our people from the agony of war. However if it’s enforced upon them, then the people must show patience and the resistance must protect ithem with all its might." BikyaMasr (Cairo)

Arab League condemns Israel's attacks on Gaza

An emergency meeting of the Arab League in Cairo on Sunday condemned Israel's air assaults on the Gaza Strip and said the United Nations must take action to end the attacks. Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby said, We issued a statement condemning the Israeli offensive on Gaza ... and Egyptian land. The United Nations has to take procedures to stop the Israeli offensive on Gaza." Reuters

Israeli politicians call for major military action in Gaza

As Palestinian militants tried to forge a tentative cease-fire agreement with Israel on Sunday, pressure was building on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to retaliate for the latest round of violence by launching a major military campaign in the Gaza Strip similar to the 22-day Operation Cast Lead in late 2008. Opposition lawmakers also urged Netanyahu to cripple the infrastructure of Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza Strip. "You must use force against terrorism," said opposition leader Tzipi Livni, whose Kadima Party was in power during Operation Cast Lead. LA Times

Egyptian protesters call for expulsion of Israeli ambassador

Hundreds of protesters in front of the Israeli embassy in Cairo continued to demand the expulsion of Israel's ambassador to Egypt, in reaction to Israel's killing of five Egyptian policemen in Sinai on Thursday, following the terrorist attack in southern Israel. One protester, dubbed "Egyptian Spiderman," has become a national hero after scaling 21 stories to remove the Israeli flag from the embassy. Jerusalem Post

Debka: Netanyahu accepts ceasefire to placate Egypt

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is receiving harsh criticism from commentators and opposition politicians for allowing Cairo to take credit for brokering a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. Netanyahu was won over by the assurance Washington received from Egypt's military rulers that the Jihad Islami's leader Ramadan Shalah had endorsed the Hamas truce. [[Wow! That's four levels of indirection! - JX]] However, Islamic Jihad continued firing missiles after the truce took effect, and Israel's Air Force struck terrorist targets in northern and central Gaza. Debka

Vietnam reverses policy -- forbids anti-China demonstrations

Vietnamese police detained scores of people taking part in an anti-China rally in Hanoi on Sunday in defiance of a government order to end a three-month string of demonstrations. At first, Vietnam permitted the demonstrations, protesting China's violations of their country's sovereignty in the South China Sea. The anti-China demonstrations started after the Vietnamese government made public a case in late May in which it said Chinese patrol ships harassed a Vietnamese seismic survey ship operating in Vietnamese waters. In addition to Vietnam and China, four other nations -- Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan and the Philippines -- also have competing claims to parts of the South China Sea. Vietnam's Communist Party is now stopping the demonstrations because it fears Arab-style protests against their autocratic rule. Reuters

Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party

Tens of thousands of Libyans celebrate in Tripoli (AFP)

Tens of thousands of Libyans celebrate in Tripoli (AFP)

The defenses of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli collapsed on Sunday evening, dramatically reversing the tides in the six-month-old civil war. Thousands of jubilant civilians rused out of their homes to cheer the long convoys of pickup trucks with rebel fighters shooting in the air. It's not known where Gaddafi is, but there were unconfirmed reports that two South African air force planes were spotted at Tripoli airport. Other unconfirmed reports indicated that he had already fled to Algeria. "There's a party in the Libyan capital tonight. The people are in charge of the city. They've decided the square is now called Martyr's Square, the original name. They're shouting 'we're free' and shooting at a poster of Gaddafi." Al-Jazeera

International Criminal Court to prosecute Libya's Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

The United Nations International Criminal Court (ICC) will talk with Libya's rebels on Monday, to request that Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, one of the sons of Muammar Gaddafi who were captured on Sunday, be transferred to ICC custody, for prosecution for crimes against humanity. However, a report broadcast by al-Jazeera indicates that people in Benghazi are furious about this, since they would "like to take care of Saif themselves." CNN

What now for Libya?

Haunted by the memories of chaos in Baghdad in 2003, analysts don't know whether Libya will stabilize or slied into anarchy, with rival armed factions or tribes vying for control of Libya's oil wealth. There are separate rebel armies in the east and west, creating the danger of a rivalry. Libya has been effectively split in two for six months, and reintegrating the two administrations could create friction. Australian

As I wrote several times when the Libya action began, I have been unable to do a detailed generational analysis of Libya because I haven't found any information about possible tribal conflicts during the 1930s. One thing's for sure - the current civil war has not been anything like a generational crisis war. Based on the information that I have so far, the most likely scenario is that tribal conflict will increase in the next few months, spiraling into full scale war. This is a tentative conclusion, but it seems unlikely that Libya will now settle down into a stable democracy.

Anti-government protesters greet U.N. team visiting Syria

Officials in the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad were infuriated on Sunday when anti-government protesters greeted a United Nations human rights mission. The U.N. mission on Sunday visited two Damascus suburbs, where it was met by hundreds of anti-government demonstrators within minutes of arriving in each place. Protesters demanded the release of family members in detention and called for the al-Assad regime's collapse. Syrian regime officials had hope to "whitewash" Assad's crimes against humanity by scrubbing the blood off the streets, according to an unnamed diplomat, but were furious when the demonstrators appeared. CNN

Turkey's anti-PKK military action in Iraq stirs clashes in Istanbul

Turkey's military action in northern Iraq continues, striking at militants of the outlawed Kurdistan' Workers' Party (PKK). Turkey has vowed to continue the military action the Kurdish militants in northern Iraq are totally eliminated. But the Regional Kurdish Administration issued a statement saying that Turkey was violating international law. Clashes erupted in central Istanbul on Sunday when police intervened in protests by the pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP), including sit-down protests. Hurriyet (Ankara)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Aug-11 World View -- Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Aug-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Aug-2011 22-Aug-11 World View -- Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party

Hamas and Gaza militant groups agree to ceasefire with Israel

Arab League condemns Israel's attacks on Gaza

Israeli politicians call for major military action in Gaza

Egyptian protesters call for expulsion of Israeli ambassador

Debka: Netanyahu accepts ceasefire to placate Egypt

Vietnam reverses policy -- forbids anti-China demonstrations

Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party

International Criminal Court to prosecute Libya's Saif al-Islam Gaddafi

What now for Libya?

Anti-government protesters greet U.N. team visiting Syria

Turkey's anti-PKK military action in Iraq stirs clashes in Istanbul

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Aug-2011
22-Aug-11 World View -- Libyan rebels take control of central Tripoli, and have a party