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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Aug-2011
26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow

Web Log - August, 2011

26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow

Muammar and Leezza, sittin' in a tree ...

Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow

Libya is a tribal society, with over 140 tribes, according to CNN. Some analysts are claiming urbanization has reduced tribal identities, and that the population has become much more homogeneous, but I strongly disagree with that, based on theory from Generational Dynamics.

Libyan rebel fighters step on a picture of Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli (Reuters)

Libyan rebel fighters step on a picture of Muammar Gaddafi in Tripoli (Reuters)

Northern Ireland is a good example of how tribal violence never completely disappears, as I reported two months ago in "23-Jun-11 News -- Sectarian violence in Northern Ireland grows again." To this day, there is still bitter violence between the indigenous Gaelic Irish people and the descendants of the English and Scottish people. The two groups fought the bloody Nine Years War four centuries ago (1594-1603), and the hate-filled memories continue until this day.

So the tribes in Libya are "playing nice" right now, because they still have Gaddafi as a common enemy, and because they want to get their hands on the billions of dollars of frozen Libyan funds. As soon as those motivations recede, it's quite possible, even likely, that full-scale tribal war will break out.

A proper understanding of what's happening in Libya today requires at least going back to the tribal wars of the 1930s. As I've said many times, I haven't found detailed information on those tribal wars, and it's quite possible that nothing was ever written down.

Mission accomplished or tribal war?

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Based on the limited information we have, we know that there's a sharp split between Tripoli and west Libya (Tripolitania), versus Benghazi and east Libya (Cyrenaica). The National Transitional Council (NTC), located in Benghazi, is a government of mostly eastern tribes, and western tribes do not necessarily feel that it represents them, especially because many of the western tribes (Warfalla, Magarha, Warshafana, Tarhuna, and Gaddafi's Qadadfa tribe in Sirte) enjoyed long-standing government largesse from Gaddafi's government, according to CNN. A list of the major Libyan tribes by region has been compiled by writer Sandra Gore Nielsen.

There are also substantial conflicts within the east and west. The commander of the rebel forces, General Abdel Fatah Younis, was assassinated several weeks ago, and the perpetrators still haven't been identified. Ali Senussi, the leader of the Obeidi tribe, centered in Tobruk, that Younis belonged to, promises that once things have begun to settle down, his tribe will get revenge, by either government law or tribal law, according to CS Monitor. "The Obeidis are promising this will not go unpunished. We hope to be in a country of law and good judgment that ensures our rights without us having to take them ourselves. But if we needed to take our justice by ourselves, we will do it."

Tribal atrocities are already occurring in Tripoli. Fighting still continues between rebels and Gaddafi supporters in Tripoli. With anti-aircraft fire, mortars, machine gunners and snipers raking sectors of the city of 2 million, the streets have run red with blood, according to Reuters.

According to the article, capital reporters saw the bodies of 30 men who apparently fought for Gaddafi. At least two had their hands bound. One was strapped to a hospital gurney with a drip still in his arm. Meanwhile medical workers report that Gaddafi's forces carried out a "mass execution" of 16 or more prisoners. A survivor of the massacre said the troops methodically shot the group as they prepared to retreat.

A major tribal war is brewing around the city of Sirte (Surt), according to AP.

Sirte is Gaddafi's home town, and the home of Gaddafi's own tribe. Gaddafi's whereabouts are unknown, but one possibility is that he's returned to Sirte and is being protected there. Rebel forces are now closing in on Sirte, and there may be a very bloody battle there.

But even apart from all this, Generational Dynamics theory says that the tribal wars of the 1930s are going to be repeated. Even if the older generations are advising against it, the younger generations will remember the bits and pieces of the bloody violence of the 1930s, and will act upon it, as young people do.

Condoleezza Rice at 2008 Glamour Magazine awards

Condoleezza Rice at 2008 Glamour Magazine awards

An interesting angle to this situation is the assessment of international winners and losers. Germany, Russia and China all supported Gaddafi until the very end, and so they're likely to be cut out of commercial deals under the new government. France, Britain and the United States all supported the Libyan action, so they're likely to come out winners.

But don't declare "Mission Accomplished!" just yet. Just as the Iraq war didn't end in 2003, it's likely that the Libya war isn't over yet.

Muammar and Leezza, sittin' in a tree ...

Rebels searching Muammar al-Gaddafi's compound in Tripoli have found a photo album filled with photos of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Gaddafi reportedly said to al-Jazeera in 2007, "Leezza, Leezza, Leezza ... I love her very much," calling her his "darling black African woman." Fox News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Aug-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Aug-2011 26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow

Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow

Mission accomplished or tribal war?

Muammar and Leezza, sittin' in a tree ...

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Aug-2011
26-Aug-11 News -- Fears of tribal violence in Libya grow