	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Aug-2011
30-Aug-11 World View -- Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again

Web Log - August, 2011

30-Aug-11 World View -- Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again

An excellent analysis of Libya by a web site reader

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

* Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again
* Internal WikiLeaks disputes puts intelligence sources at risk
* Christine Lagarde is rebuffed in attempt to save Europe
* Germany's foreign minister under fire over Libya
* New deadly Christian-Muslim violence in Jos, Nigeria
* An excellent analysis of Libya by a web site reader
* Climate change scientists warn of extraterrestrial attacks

Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again

A Vietnamese billboard warning about bird flu

A Vietnamese billboard warning about bird flu

The H5N1 bird flu pandemic in 2009 caused a few hundred deaths, but did not cause the thousands or more deaths that had been feared. However, bird flu has never disappeared, and it's still endemic in poultry and wild birds in six countries: Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia and Vietnam. Now a new mutation, combined with migratory bird movements, is causing it to spread to other countries -- the Palestinian Territories, Bulgaria, Romania, Nepal and Mongolia -- in a form that's resistant to vaccines that used to work. "The general departure from the progressive decline observed in 2004-2008 could mean that there will be a flareup of H5N1 this fall and winter, with people unexpectedly finding the virus in their backyard," says Chief Veterinary Officer Juan Lubroth, adding, "This is no time for complacency." UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Internal WikiLeaks disputes puts intelligence sources at risk

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange has always insisted that leaked US State Department cables would be edited to protect sources, so that the lives of informants would not be at risk. However, thanks to a conflict with a former employee, an encrypted file containing 251,000 documents in their original form has been put on the internet. Then, in the spring of 2011, the encryption password was accidentally released. This release potentially endangers the informants mentioned in the documents, many of whom live in countries whose governments are hostile to the US. Spiegel

Christine Lagarde is rebuffed in attempt to save Europe

Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde

Christine Lagarde is the new head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), having taken over when rape charges forced Dominique Strauss-Kahn to step down. In her maiden speech on Sunday, she said that the world economy is in a "dangerous new phase" that requires European governments to recapitalize, or bail out, all the European banks holding debt issued by Greece, or other toxic assets. Without an "urgent" recapitalization, "we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, or even a debilitating liquidity crisis." Officials from Germany, Spain and the European Union immediately rebuffed Lagarde's call, saying that plans already in place would do all that's necessary. Bloomberg

Germany's foreign minister under fire over Libya

Guido Westerwelle, the foreign minister in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, is under fire because he didn't support the humanitarian Libya mission when it started. France and Britain led the effort to intervene in Libya, but Germany, Russia and China opposed the intervention. Last week, Westerwelle embarrased Merkel by suggesting that economic sanctions, rather than NATO air strikes, had played a decisive role in the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. Then he did a flip-flop on Sunday, acknowledging the "help provided by the international military mission" - too late for many of his critics. Deutsche-Welle

New deadly Christian-Muslim violence in Jos, Nigeria

In February, we reported on numerous atrocities committed by Christians and Muslims against each other in Nigeria's central city of Jos. ( "24-Feb-11 News -- Clashes in Jos, Nigeria, pit Christians against Muslims") At least 9 people have been killed and 106 injuried in new clashes between Muslims and Christians on Monday. A group of Muslims had gone to a prayer ground in Jos to mark the end of Ramadan when they were surrounded by residents of the Christian-dominated neighbourhood. Violence ensued, with motorcycles and cars burnt. Christians involved in the clashes spoke of preventing Muslims from marking their holiday in revenge for a string of bombs that exploded in Jos on Christmas Eve last year. Jos is right on the fault line between Muslims in the north and Christians in the south. This violence follows Friday's suicide bombing of the UN building in Abuja by an Islamist terrorist. AFP

An excellent analysis of Libya by a web site reader

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

The following is from a web site reader in France. It concludes that the current Libyan war does have the early characteristics of a generational crisis war, from which it follows that the war is going to get much worse:

John, You wrote Monday: "As I wrote several times when the Libya action began, I have been unable to do a detailed generational analysis of Libya because I haven't found any information about possible tribal conflicts during the 1930s."

Neither have I. So I assume there was no tribal conflicts in 1930's Libya because all tribes were submitted to foreign colonial rule-the one of fascist Italy. At the same moment the French and British empires led by democratic countries succeeded in putting an end to all tribal wars in Africa so it would have been odd if a totalitarian state failed to do it and everybody would have laughed at those Italians unable to rule over Arabs.

We hypothesized both last February the last generational crisis of Libya was the 1920's conquest by Italy. The conquest actually began in 1911 when the Italians defeated the Ottoman empire. However Turkish rule on Libya was nominal and the Italians at first controlled only coastal areas. The hinterland was mostly under the authority of a prestigious imams lineage, the Senoussis with their Islamic brotherhood (later they would become the Libyan royal family). Fezzan however wasn't subject to the Senoussis nor the Italians until 1934.

In 1921 Rodolfo Graziani (later a fascist vice-Roy of Ethiopia, a WW2 military leader and a war criminal) was sent to pacify Libya. There began the real conquest. Graziani used mobile columns (a invention of the Vendean wars: it's a column of light infantry and cavalry targeting dispersed civilian population supporting guerrilla warfare), air bombings, destruction of the cattle, chemical weapons and concentration camps. A eight of all Libyan population including a half of the Cyrenaica population died in the process.

I have found a video from a movie called "Lion of the desert" with Oliver Reed as Graziani where we can see pictures of the Italian concentration camps. Of course it's a propaganda movie (it was censored in Italy until 2009) but it can be used :

So the last generational Libyan crisis ended in the mid-1930's with the Fezzan brutal conquest following the bloodly Cyrenaica conquest. For the ongoing one I'm not sure the rebels will unavoidably divide with the West invading the East or the contrary. Gaddafi and his son Saif Al Islam are still free and alive. Moreover the rebels have not yet taken the control of Syrte area and the Fezzan. So I suppose in the next months the civil war will continue with loyalists claiming to fight a NATO Quisling puppet government.

You wrote: "the current civil war has not been anything like a generational crisis war."

Well, both sides committed war crimes. They killed prisoners of war and finished off wounded fighters. The rebels target blacks because Gaddafi hired Chadians mercenaries and sometimes tortured them. Before giving up a town the loyalists routinely killed political prisoners or tried to do it.

Climate change scientists warn of extraterrestrial attacks

A scene from Mars Attacks!

A scene from Mars Attacks!

According to Nasa-affiliated scientists at Pennsylvania State University, extraterrestrial beings might view changes in Earth's atmosphere as symptomatic of a civilisation growing out of control – and take drastic action to keep us from becoming a more serious threat. To bolster humanity's chances of survival, the researchers call for caution in sending signals into space, and in particular warn against broadcasting information about our biological make-up, which could be used to manufacture weapons that target humans. Guardian

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Aug-11 News -- Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (30-Aug-2011) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Aug-2011 30-Aug-11 World View -- Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again

Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again

Internal WikiLeaks disputes puts intelligence sources at risk

Christine Lagarde is rebuffed in attempt to save Europe

Germany's foreign minister under fire over Libya

New deadly Christian-Muslim violence in Jos, Nigeria

An excellent analysis of Libya by a web site reader

Climate change scientists warn of extraterrestrial attacks

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Aug-2011
30-Aug-11 World View -- Bird flu pandemic concerns increase again