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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Jan-2012
27-Jan-12 World View -- Nigeria's Boko Haram terror group says it's on government payrolls

Web Log - January, 2012

27-Jan-12 World View -- Nigeria's Boko Haram terror group says it's on government payrolls

Military tensions with Iran grow around the Strait of Hormuz

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

EU officials admit that €130 billion not enough for next Greece bailout
ECB becomes major new obstacle to Greece default agreement
Israelis state principles on border negotiations for the first time
Iran has many options besides closing the Strait of Hormuz
Debka: US military buildup on islands around Strait of Hormuz
Nigeria's Boko Haram terror group says it's on government payrolls

EU officials admit that €130 billion not enough for next Greece bailout

Olli Rehn on Thursday (AFP)

Olli Rehn on Thursday (AFP)

New obstacles have arisen in the negotiations on the private sector involvement plan (PSI+) to decide how much private investors will lose when Greece defaults. Olli Rehn, Europe’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, said on Thursday,

"We are quite close to reaching an agreement between private creditors and the Greek government and I would expect it to be completed in the next few days, preferably within January rather than in February."

Sounds like wishful thinking, doesn't it? Rehn also admitted for the first time that the €130 billion planned for Greece's next bailout package will not be enough. Kathimerini

ECB becomes major new obstacle to Greece default agreement

Just like private banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) has a great sum of Greek bonds in its portfolio -- about €50 billion worth. The ECB is insisting in the negotiations that they take no loss whatsoever on these bonds -- not a single euro -- while the talk now is that private investors should lose 75% of their investment. This dispute is causing some acrimony, and it won't easily be settled. Reuters

Israelis state principles on border negotiations for the first time

The last of the scheduled non-negotiation talks between the Israelis and Palestinians, sponsored by the Jordanians, came to an end on Thursday. Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas had said that once this day was reached, he would go on a worldwide diplomatic initiative to isolate Israel. Abbas's office says he is now reassessing what to do next, but the international community is doing everything possible to convince both sides to have some more talks. Israel has been criticized in the past for never presenting a position on the borders of a future Palestinian state. No position was presented on Thursday, but there was a statement of principles. One of the principles that Israel presented was that in any permanent agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, most of the Israelis who live in the West Bank will remain in Israeli territory, while the Palestinians in the West Bank will be in the area allotted for a future Palestinian state. Israel promised more details, if another meeting is schedule. Haaretz

Iran has many options besides closing the Strait of Hormuz

Iran has stepped up its bellicose warnings of conflict in the Persian Gulf, as a result of the announcements of new sanctions by the European Union and the U.S. on Iran's oil exports and central bank. But Iran has many options short of full-blown war. Iran could cause immense harm with just a few incidents -- mines laid in the Gulf or Iran's small-boat swarming tactics against oil tanks. According to one analyst, "[Iran's] final aim is not to physically close [the strait] for too long, but to drive up shipping insurance and other costs to astronomical heights – which is just as good, in terms of economic damage, as the physical closing of the strait. If you are not sure whether you will get hit, or if you get hit not by conventional force but some wild boat that might float around in the sea – or a mine or two – that will create far more insecurity than a battle line where the strait is closed." CS Monitor

Debka: US military buildup on islands around Strait of Hormuz

Military tensions in the Persian Gulf have been escalating sharply this week, following the announcement of an oil embargo by the Europeans. Iran's intended response is not to shut down the Strait of Hormuz completely. Instead, Iran will shut down different portions of the channel at different times, either by mining the waterway or firing missiles at tankers from unmarked speedboats, in order to reduce the flow of oil. According to Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber), President Barack Obama has secretly ordered US air, naval and marine forces -- up to 100,000 troops -- to build up heavy concentrations on two strategic islands - Socotra, which is part of a Yemeni archipelago in the Indian Ocean, and the Omani island of Masirah at the southern exit of the Strait of Hormuz. The Socotro facilities are top secret, and a military base there is in a position to oversee the shipping moving in and out of those naval waterways. The objective will be to make sure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open. Debka

Nigeria's Boko Haram terror group says it's on government payrolls

The Boko Haram terror group, which has killed over 1,000 people in Nigeria since 2009, is claiming that the group is receiving tens of millions of dollars of financial support from the north Nigerian states. "Most of them pay us monthly to leave their states alone," says a Boko Haram statement. The statement claims that the recent bloody attacks in some northern states were the consequence of those states stopping their payments. Vanguard (Lagos)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jan-12 World View -- Nigeria's Boko Haram terror group says it's on government payrolls thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Jan-2012) Permanent Link
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