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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Feb-2012
12-Feb-12 World View -- Dramatic vote in Greece on Sunday will affect the course of Europe and the world

Web Log - February, 2012

12-Feb-12 World View -- Dramatic vote in Greece on Sunday will affect the course of Europe and the world

Ahmadinejad vs Supreme Leader feud simmers as Iran's elections approach

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

Greece's PM: Accept the harsh austerity measures, or disaster
Political chaos continues in Greece on eve of parliamentary vote
Greece exhibits first major 'regeneracy' in this generational crisis era
International pressure over Syria grows on Russia and China
Syria violence spreads to northern Lebanon
Iran to unveil new achievements in nuclear technology soon
Iran's regime cuts internet access sharply
Ahmadinejad vs Supreme Leader feud simmers as Iran's elections approach

Greece's PM: Accept the harsh austerity measures, or disaster

Lucas Papademos addressing the nation on Saturday

Lucas Papademos addressing the nation on Saturday

In a dramatic, emotional televised address to the nation, Greece's interim Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said that parliamentary lawmakers must accept the harsh austerity program because the alternative, a disorderly Greek default, would bring chaos to the country:

"We realize this program entails painful sacrifices for the Greeks, but a default would condemn Greece to an uncontrolled adventure. ... We look at the Greek people in the eyes with full realization of our responsibility.
This program will secure conditions of safety, confidence and restore the competitiveness of our economy. It will see the country return to growth, probably in the second half of next year.
The agreement for the new program has the support of the country’s two main parties and secures the future of our country in the eurozone. It also reflects the extreme conditions of need our country lives in.
This is the fight of our generation. It would be the biggest defeat of post-1974 Greece if this country were to default and drop out of the eurozone, when countries far poorer than us are making a hard effort to enter the euro.
We will not emerge from the crisis without sacrifices.
What is patriotic today is not drop our shields but make the correct decisions that enhance our position in Europe and the world. This is absolutely necessary for us to protect our national interest.
It will not end within just one year. It will require a long effort and cooperation of political forces. But above all, it will require faith in our abilities."

Kathimerini

Political chaos continues in Greece on eve of parliamentary vote

Antonis Samaras, leader of the conservative New Democracy party, and George Papandreou, former prime minister and leader of the socialist Pasok party, both invoked party discipline on Saturday, and demanded that members of their parties vote "yes" on Sunday's vote on austerity measures. Saturday’s stormy meeting of Pasok led to a number of deputies resigning their seats. Several others have made it known that they will vote "no" on Sunday. "We have to vote Yes, not because it is pleasant but because it will give Greece some time to stand on its feet," said Papandreou. Kathimerini

Greece exhibits first major 'regeneracy' in this generational crisis era

The dramatic events in Greece are fascinating from the point of view of generational theory, and are providing a look ahead at what's coming in other countries, including the United States. Most major countries today are in a generational crisis era, as the generations of survivors of World War II have disappeared. As we've been discussing for years, a characteristic of this era is political bickering and governmental paralysis that only gets worse as time goes on. The paralysis ends with the "regeneracy," referring to the regeneracy of civic unity for the first time since the end of WW II. The regeneracy is a series of one or more events that panic the nation and put the nation and its way of life in danger, forcing everyone to unify behind the political leadership. Right now, in real time, we're looking at the first major regeneracy in the current generational crisis era. These regeneracies will occur in other countries, leading up to the Clash of Civilizations world war. Greece's vote on Sunday will change the direction of Europe and the world because it will soon be apparent to everyone that Greece's problems are completely unsolved, leading to increased social unrest and the return of old national and ethnic splits for the first time since World War II. "Basics of Generational Dynamics"

International pressure over Syria grows on Russia and China

Activists protest Russia's veto in front of the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv

Activists protest Russia's veto in front of the Russian Embassy in Tel Aviv

Russia and China continue to be isolated internationally over their veto of the U.N. Security Council resolution on Syria, sponsored by the Arab League, while Syria's president Bashar al-Assad continues to treat huge numbers of Arab Syrians as cockroaches to be exterminated. On Saturday, activists stood outside the Russian embassy in Tel Aviv chanting slogans, such as “Get out Assad! Get out you liar!, you killer!", in Arabic, Hebrew and English. However, the lights in the embassy remained off. Jerusalem Post

Syria violence spreads to northern Lebanon

Lebanon's army is struggling to bring under control sectarian clashes between Alawites and Sunni Muslims in the northern Lebanon city of Tripoli, near the border with Syria. The Alawites are a minority sect of which Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is a member, while al-Assad's extermination regime has particularly targeted Sunni Muslims in Syria. The big danger is not a civil war within Syria, which is extremely unlikely during Syria's generational awakening era, but rather a wider regional war in neighboring states, especially Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Israel, the Palestinian territories, and Egypt. The fighting on Friday involved gunfights and the use of rocket-propelled grenades and began after Friday midday prayers, when people pour out of mosques onto the streets. Six civilians and six soldiers were wounded in the last two days. Daily Star (Beirut)

Iran to unveil new achievements in nuclear technology soon

Ahmadinejad on television on Saturday (PressTv)

Ahmadinejad on television on Saturday (PressTv)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced on Saturday that the country plans to unveil a series of big new achievements in nuclear technology in coming days. "The world will witness inauguration of a number of big achievements in the field of nuclear (technology) in coming days," Ahmadinejad said, addressing millions of enthusiastic demonstrators in Tehran who had flocked to the streets to celebrate the 33rd anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. He also underlined that the country's progress and advancement in the field of nuclear technology was achieved despite the pressures of the world arrogant powers, and added all needs of the Iranian nation to the nuclear technology will be met by Iran's talented scientists in the near future. Fars News Agency (Tehran)

Iran's regime cuts internet access sharply

Web users in Iran have reported a sharp reduction in internet speed, and lack of access to several prominent web sites, including Yahoo and Facebook. For a while on Thursday, sites that use the SSL protocol, used principally by e-commerce sites to encrypt credit card numbers and other customer data, could no longer be accessed, presumably to prevent Iranians from sending encrypted messages of any type. The regime fears protests on the 33rd anniversary of the Great Islamic Revolution, and before parliamentary elections scheduled for March 2. Activists have called for silent protests on February 14. Radio Zamaneh

Ahmadinejad vs Supreme Leader feud simmers as Iran's elections approach

Ahmadinejad kisses supreme leader Khamenei on the shoulder after winning 2009 election

Ahmadinejad kisses supreme leader Khamenei on the shoulder after winning 2009 election

The first public hints of the feud between Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came after the June, 2009, presidential election, when Khamanei refused to embrace Ahmadinejad, who then had to force Khamanei to accept a kiss on the shoulder. It became extremely bitter last year when the two leaders bitterly attacked each other, forcing members of the parliament to choose sides. Now, a new parliamentary election is scheduled for March 2, and it represents a new high-stakes confrontation between Ahmadinejad and Khamanei. Tehran and other big cities tend to favor Khamanei, and so Ahmadinejad's supporters are focusing on the far-flung and poorer regions of the country, by buying votes with money and promises of more money. It turns out that the Western sanctions against Iran have indirectly benefited Ahmadinejad: They've caused the value of Iran's rial currency to nosedive, while the government still brings in dollars from oil sales. This gives the government plenty of vote-buying money. AP

As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic nation. Its top leadership, starting with the supreme leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations are, in fact, generally pro-Western and have no particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea. As months go by, people in these younger generations are displacing the war survivors, moving Iran's policies closer to the West. This change is occurring throughout society, even within the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). It appears more and more that Ahmadinejad is siding with the younger post-war generation against Khamanei and the geezers in the survivor generations. This is Iran's generational awakening era, and like America's awakening era in the 1960s, the politics have become chaotic. At some point there will have to be an awakening era climax which, like President Nixon's resignation in 1974, will resolve the political battle between younger and older generations and produce a winner.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Feb-12 World View -- Dramatic vote in Greece on Sunday will affect the course of Europe and the world thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Feb-2012) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Feb-2012 12-Feb-12 World View -- Dramatic vote in Greece on Sunday will affect the course of Europe and the world

Greece's PM: Accept the harsh austerity measures, or disaster

Political chaos continues in Greece on eve of parliamentary vote

Greece exhibits first major 'regeneracy' in this generational crisis era

International pressure over Syria grows on Russia and China

Syria violence spreads to northern Lebanon

Iran to unveil new achievements in nuclear technology soon

Iran's regime cuts internet access sharply

Ahmadinejad vs Supreme Leader feud simmers as Iran's elections approach

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Feb-2012
12-Feb-12 World View -- Dramatic vote in Greece on Sunday will affect the course of Europe and the world