	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Mar-2012
16-Mar-12 World View -- Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout

Web Log - March, 2012

16-Mar-12 World View -- Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout

India develops asymmetric military strategy for border war with China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout
Aftermath of bailout of Greece begins
Ireland wants the same deal that Greece got
India develops asymmetric military strategy for border war with China

Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout

Leon Panetta and Hamid Karzai in Kabul on Thursday (AP)

Leon Panetta and Hamid Karzai in Kabul on Thursday (AP)

Pressure continues to build for an early Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan, as President Hamid Karzai announced, after a Thursday meeting in Kabul with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, that Afghan forces should immediately begin to take over complete security responsibilities across the country, and that the entire process should be completed by 2013, a year earlier than planned. Karzai also called for coalition troops to retreat to their bases and end patrols through Afghan villages. At the same time, the Taliban suspended their so-called peace talks with Nato, saying that Washington was "shaky, erratic and vague." These announcements came in the wake of a series of disasters -- the burning of copies of the Koran by American soldiers, and the massacre of 16 civilians by a U.S. gunman. Karzai was said to be further infuriated by the news that the U.S. gunman had been flown out of the country to a base in Kuwait. The situation is beginning to look increasingly like a rout like the one that American's suffered when they hurriedly left Vietnam in 1974. In that case, they left behind an extremely bloody civil war in Vietnam and Cambodia. In this case, what they're likely to be leaving behind is a proxy war between Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. Guardian

Aftermath of bailout of Greece begins

Everyone's breathing a sigh of relief now that the second bailout of Greece has been approved, and everyone can live happily ever after, but in fact there may be a new Greek crisis in a matter of weeks. With Greece's economy spiraling into oblivion, it's clear to everyone that Greece is going to need a third bailout if it's to avoid bankruptcy. With many countries, led by Germany, Finland and Austria, increasingly hostile to the idea of any further bailouts, the markets are increasingly betting that Greece is going into bankruptcy anyway, as 2-year bond yields (interest rates) have falled from 40%, but are still at 20% and unlikely to fall further. (By comparison, U.S. 2-year Treasury yields are 1.1%.) Greece is expected to hold an election on April 22, which is expected to produce a left-wing majority deeply opposed to the strict austerity program imposed by Brussels. Thus, a new Greek crisis could be less than six weeks away. Spiegel

Ireland wants the same deal that Greece got

Greece's bailout involved forcing private investors to take big losses, and Ireland would like to do the same thing with its debt. Ireland owes a €3.1 billion debt repayment to the ECB on March 31, and wants to delay the payment and reduce the interest rate. However, the Irish were infuriated when EU Commissioner Olli Rehn dismissed the idea, saying that Irish people "must respect their commitments and obligations." Ireland's Finance Minister Michael Noonan says that he hopes that a deal with the EU can still be reached, and he excused Rehn's remarks by saying, "I think he was a bit frayed at the press conference and was caught unawares, and didn’t put things in context. He is conscious of that himself." Irish Times

India develops asymmetric military strategy for border war with China

Although India and China have been holding on-and-off talks on their border dispute for decades, military tensions in the border regions have been increasing steadily, and no one seriously believes that the talks will accomplish anything without an actual border war. China has been far more aggressive than India in building infrastructure along the borders, China has invested in major infrastructure projects in the Tibetan Autonomous Region and along the Sino-Indian border, including road and rail links that allow it to mobilize large forces with supporting logistics in a short period of time, as well as new air bases and forward airstrips. It also has 160,000 troops and intermediate-range ballistic missiles positioned in Tibet. Faced with a situation where China is rapidly preparing overwhelming military force for a border war where India would face defeat quickly, India is developing an "asymmetric" strategy. Instead of focusing on preventing the loss of any piece of territory in the event of a border conflict, India would respond to a Chinese land-grab with a land-grab of its own to give it leverage to restore the status quo. Wow, that sounds like a sure winner to me. Jamestown

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Mar-12 World View -- Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Mar-2012) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Mar-2012 16-Mar-12 World View -- Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout

Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout

Aftermath of bailout of Greece begins

Ireland wants the same deal that Greece got

India develops asymmetric military strategy for border war with China

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Mar-2012
16-Mar-12 World View -- Afghan strategy in chaos as Karzai calls for early pullout