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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jul-2012
12-Jul-12 World View -- Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'

Web Log - July, 2012

12-Jul-12 World View -- Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'

13,500 troops and six surface-to-air missiles will guard London Olympics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Syria's ambassador to Iraq defects
U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds approach record low yields
Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'
13,500 troops and six surface-to-air missiles will guard London Olympics

Syria's ambassador to Iraq defects

Nawaf al-Fares on al-Jazeera on Wednesday

Nawaf al-Fares on al-Jazeera on Wednesday

Nawaf al-Fares, the Syria's ambassador to Iraq, is the latest high profile defection from the Bashar al-Assad regime. Like Army General Manaf Mustafa Tlass, who defected last week, al-Fares is a high-ranking Sunni Muslim who has been in the government's inner circle since the time of the current president's father, Hafez al-Assad. Both defectors could no longer tolerate al-Assad's maiming, torturing, and slaughtering innocent Sunni Arabs. Al-Jazeera

U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds approach record low yields

We've been reporting negative yields (interest rates) for bonds for Denmark, Germany and France. And now, U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds are at historically low yields. On Wednesday, demand was at a record high, and the Treasury sold $21 billion of 10-year bonds at a yield of 1.459%. On June 1, they touched an all-time record low of 1.44%. Bloomberg

A couple of people have asked me why anyone would invest money at negative interest rates -- meaning that you'd be paying interest on the money you invest. If all you have are a few thousand dollars, you can stuff it in your mattress, for 0% interest. But suppose you have $1 million to invest? You can't put it in your mattress. You could buy art or real estate, and some people do that. But many people want to keep their money liquid, and so have to put it in the bank. They can put it into a Spanish bank and get 7% interest, or into a Greek bank and get 25% interest, but if you do that, you may lose a great deal of money. (Recall that investors in Greek bonds were forced to take a 74% "haircut," meaning that they lost 74% of their investment.) With the global economy in a growing deflationary spiral, cash is becoming more valuable, and many asset prices are falling. So your best choice may be the safest choice, and that's to invest in bonds of a country that you feel is likely to keep your money safe. And if it costs you a few pennies interest to keep your money safe, you're glad to spend it.

Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'

An Afghan Taliban commander, and a former Guantánamo inmate, used very strong language in an interview to distance the Taliban from al-Qaeda:

"At least 70 per cent of the Taliban are angry at al-Qaeda. Our people consider al-Qaeda to be a plague that was sent down to us by the heavens. Some even concluded that al-Qaeda are actually the spies of America. Originally, the Taliban were naive and ignorant of politics and welcomed al-Qaeda into their homes. But al-Qaeda abused our hospitality. It was in Guantanamo that I realised how disloyal the al-Qaeda people were... To tell the truth, I was relieved at the death of Osama. Through his policies, he destroyed Afghanistan. If he really believed in jihad he should have gone to Saudi Arabia and done jihad there, rather than wrecking our country."

He discussed his assertion that the Taliban cannot win the war in Afghanistan, even after Nato leaves in 2013:

"The Taliban capturing Kabul is a very distant prospect. Any Taliban leader expecting to be able to capture Kabul is making a grave mistake. Nevertheless, the leadership also knows that it cannot afford to acknowledge this weakness. To do so would undermine the morale of Taliban personnel. The leadership knows the truth – that they cannot prevail over the power they confront."

To put all this into perspective from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, you have to start from the fact that there was a devastating civil war in the country from 1991-96, which slaughtered masses of people and destroyed much of the country's infrastructure. Afghanistan is just now entering a generational Awakening era. There are plenty of people around who survived the civil war, and were traumatized by it for life, and will do anything possible to keep it from happening again.

So the Taliban commander's words are absolutely true. Nobody has the energy to fight another civil war, and so the Taliban cannot capture Kabul. All al-Qaeda is doing for the Taliban is bringing war back to Afghanistan, which they don't want, and that's why al-Qaeda is "a plague." He adds that the only other real power in Afghanistan, besides the Americans, is the Northern Alliance, a Tajik-led coalition that fought against the Taliban in the 1990s civil war.

The problem with the commander's claims is something that I've written about many times -- the connection with Pakistan. The Taliban are ethnic Pashtuns, and the Pashtuns occupy a long region that extends across the border, through Pakistan's "tribal area," into northwestern Pakistan. And the Pakistanis, including the Pakistani Pashtuns, are in a generational Crisis era, and are quite ready for a war.

Thus you have the Pakistan Taliban, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Although they're also Pashtuns, and they also call themselves Taliban, they are in very different place in terms of attitudes and behaviors from the Afghanistan Taliban. News stories have repeatedly said that TTP is closely linked with al-Qaeda, and that TTP is committed to attacking Americans and Nato in Afghanistan.

There cannot be another crisis civil war in Afghanistan, so soon after the last one. But my expectation is that something just as bad (or worse) is going to happen: Afghanistan will be the site of a proxy war between Pakistan and India, with Iran and the U.S. aiding India, and with China aiding Pakistan. Guardian and New Statesman

13,500 troops and six surface-to-air missiles will guard London Olympics

London 2012 Olympics site

London 2012 Olympics site

Britain's armed forces are adding 3,500 troops to the contingent that will be guarding the London 2012 Olympics games, bringing the total to 13,500, with another 3,000 to be available if necessary. Last week, it was confirmed that surface-to-air missiles would be located at six sites around the capital - each capable of downing a rogue aircraft streaking towards Olympic venues packed with spectators. Residents of the area had objected to having surface to air missiles on the roofs of their apartment blocks, claiming that the missiles would make their homes a target (ya think?), but last week Britain's High Court rejected their bid to stop the missiles. Armed Puma helicopters carrying teams of crack snipers will also be on standby to thwart suicide bombers. Daily Mail

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jul-12 World View -- Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Jul-2012) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jul-2012 12-Jul-12 World View -- Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'

Syria's ambassador to Iraq defects

U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds approach record low yields

Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'

13,500 troops and six surface-to-air missiles will guard London Olympics

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jul-2012
12-Jul-12 World View -- Taliban commander in Afghanistan calls al-Qaeda a 'plague'