Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny Generational
 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Apr-2013
2-Apr-13 World View -- U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula

Web Log - April, 2013

2-Apr-13 World View -- U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula

David Stockman says our economy is in 'End-stage metastasis'

This morning's key headlines from

Satellite pictures detail massive Buddhist on Muslim violence in Burma

We've reported on the massive violent attacks against Muslims by rampaging mobs of Buddhists around Meiktila, Burma (Myanmar), during March 20-22, killing dozens, displacing thousands, destroying hundreds of residences and mosques. The extent of the devastation is shown dramatically by the following before and after pictures:

Before and after satellite pictures, Meiktila, Burma (Human Rights Watch)
Before and after satellite pictures, Meiktila, Burma (Human Rights Watch)

The damage covers a region of about 24 hectares (60 acres). Buddhist violence against Muslims appears to be increasing in Burma and in Sri Lanka, and possibly other Asian regions as well. Human Rights Watch

U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula

North Korea has continued increasingly belligerent statements, going far beyond the tenor of previous statements, even declaring that North and South Korea are already in a state of war. North Korea's child dictator, Kim Jong-un, has gone so far that it may be impossible to back down without losing substantial credibility domestically, and so he may decide that it's necessary to prove himself by making some attack, like the two attacks on South Korea in 2010. As things stand now, tensions are very high in both North and South Korea, and both sides have made it clear that they strike militarily at the slightest provocation.

U.S. defense officials are confirming that the Navy has moved the destroyer USS McCain to a location off the coast of the Korean Peninsula. The destroyer is equipped with the Aegis defense system that's capable of shooting down missiles.

From the point of view of generational theory, this ping-pong back and forth of threats and counter-threats is exactly the pattern that leads to generational crisis wars. Fox News and VOA

Influence of extremist groups in the Balkans grows

Two kinds of extremist groups -- Islamist extremists and far-right neo-Nazi extremists -- are growing in strength and influence in the Balkans, albeit slowly. (The phrase "far-right" has different meanings in Europe and America.) The Arab Spring has inspired the rise of several Islamic extremist organizations in Kosovo, Albania and Serbia. However, the huge international presence in the Balkans has denied them the basis for widespread violence, nor have they been able to convince citizens that they are focused on solving problems, not just selling nationalist rhetoric. Far-right extremists in the Balkans region have been similarly unsuccessful, with the notable exception of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn in Greece, which holds 18 seats in parliament, and whose popularity is rising. Southeast Europe Times

David A Stockman says our economy is in 'End-stage metastasis'

President Ronald Reagan took his budget director, David A. Stockman, "to the woodshed" for calling supply-side economics a "Trojan horse" that would simply benefit the rich. Stockman has been critical of economic policies in all administrations since then, and now he's saying that economic policy failures -- a bloated government economy mired deeply in debt -- have compounded themselves to the point where America is in "End-stage metastasis," headed for a new Great Depression. According to Stockman:

"The future is bleak. The greatest construction boom in recorded history — China’s money dump on infrastructure over the last 15 years — is slowing. Brazil, India, Russia, Turkey, South Africa and all the other growing middle-income nations cannot make up for the shortfall in demand. The American machinery of monetary and fiscal stimulus has reached its limits. Japan is sinking into old-age bankruptcy and Europe into welfare-state senescence. The new rulers enthroned in Beijing last year know that after two decades of wild lending, speculation and building, even they will face a day of reckoning, too. ...

These policies have brought America to an end-stage metastasis. The way out would be so radical it can’t happen. It would necessitate a sweeping divorce of the state and the market economy. It would require a renunciation of crony capitalism and its first cousin: Keynesian economics in all its forms. The state would need to get out of the business of imperial hubris, economic uplift and social insurance and shift its focus to managing and financing an effective, affordable, means-tested safety net. ...

The United States is broke — fiscally, morally, intellectually — and the Fed has incited a global currency war (Japan just signed up, the Brazilians and Chinese are angry, and the German-dominated euro zone is crumbling) that will soon overwhelm it. When the latest bubble pops, there will be nothing to stop the collapse. If this sounds like advice to get out of the markets and hide out in cash, it is."

A different view of the situation, reaching the same conclusion, is provided by analyst Mark D. Cook:

"I believe when the 1st quarter of 2013 is looked upon in a rear view mirror, it will go down as one of the most overextended, overbought markets of all time. Keep in mind that the complacency factors that I view have the bulls not seeing the semi bearing down on them to flatten. A pullback of 200 to 300 S&P points from this point to sometime in 2013 appears likely given the overextension. I feel like the person that knows the earthquake is going to consume all the terrain, but nobody is listening as they sip marguerites and purchase extravagances beyond normal common sense. Human nature will never change."

I guess he feels like me.

Generational Dynamics approaches the issues in a different way, but reaches the same conclusions. Both Europe and America are in a deflationary spiral, and a major financial panic and crisis, worse than 1929, is coming with mathematical certainty. (NY Times) and UPI (April 13, 1986) and Mark D Cook

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Apr-13 World View -- U.S. Navy moves destroyer off coast of Korean Peninsula thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Apr-2013) Permanent Link
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