	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-May-2013
29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales

Web Log - May, 2013

29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales

Buddhist vs Muslim violence spreads in Burma (Myanmar)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia retaliates against EU by confirming weapons sales to Syria
Buddhist vs Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar) spreads north

Russia retaliates against EU by confirming weapons sales to Syria

Russia's S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (AP)

Russia's S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (AP)

Russia said Tuesday that it would go ahead with the planned transfer of state of the art S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to the regime of Syria's psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad. The announcement was made in retaliation for Sunday's announcement by the European Union that its member nations had failed to reach agreement on extending the embargo, set to expire on Saturday, on weapons to al-Assad's opposition. Britain and France have led the demands to supply weapons to the opposition.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov used strong language to criticize the EU decision and justify Russia's delivery of the S-300s:

"We think this delivery is a stabilizing factor and that such steps in many ways restrain some hotheads ... from exploring scenarios in which this conflict could be given an international character with participation of outside forces, to whom this idea is not foreign."

Russia had previously promised Israel it would delay the S-300 delivery, so the new announcement represents a reversal, although no new delivery date was set. According to Israel's Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon:

"I can say that the shipments are not on their way yet. I hope they will not leave, and if, God forbid, they reach Syria, we will know what to do."

What Yaalon means, presumably, is that Israel will launch air strikes, targeting the S-300 systems, if they reach Syria. The Israelis point out that the S-300s, with a range of 125 miles, are not purely defensive, since they can target Israel's civilian aircraft.

Britain's foreign secretary William Hague said that Britain has not set a date either:

"We have said, we have made our own commitments, that at this stage, as we work for the Geneva conference, we are not taking any decision to send any arms to anyone."

Both Britain and Russia gave similar reasons for their respective decisions -- that their side's weapons will provide stability to Syria. However, with Britain, France, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey all supplying, or potentially supplying weapons to either side in Syria, and with the war spilling over into Iraq and Lebanon, the country's sectarian proxy war took another giant leap forward on Tuesday. Reuters and Guardian (London)

Buddhist vs Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar) spreads north

Hundreds of people, mostly Muslims, have already been killed in sectarian violence in Burma between Buddhists and Muslims, first in Rakhine State in the southwest last year, and then in central Burma in March. (See "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht".) Now there's been a new wave of sectarian violence, this time in the city of Lashio in northern Burma, near the border with China.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're seeing is a great example of identity group formation. The initial violence, in Rakhine state, was, in my opinion, not violence between religious groups, but rather violence between ethnic groups, dark-skinned Rohingya versus lighter skinned Burmese. However, Burma is a mostly Buddhist country, and the Rohingya are mostly Muslim, and so Muslims in other parts of Burma began to identify with the Rohingya, and Buddhists throughout the country formed their own identity group. So the ethnic violence has now been transformed, through identity group formation, into religious violence that seems increasingly likely to spiral into a larger sectarian war. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-May-2013) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-May-2013 29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales

Russia retaliates against EU by confirming weapons sales to Syria

Buddhist vs Muslim violence in Burma (Myanmar) spreads north

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-May-2013
29-May-13 World View -- Syria's proxy war expands as Russia confirms missile sales