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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Jun-2013
3-Jun-13 World View -- China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems

Web Log - June, 2013

3-Jun-13 World View -- China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems

Syria's conflict spills over into Lebanon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems
China's Depsang Plain incursion
The results of Li Keqiang's visit to India
Syria's opposition fighters clash with Hezbollah in Lebanon

China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems

China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang (L) shakes hands with President Xi Jinping (Getty)

China's Prime Minister Li Keqiang (L) shakes hands with President Xi Jinping (Getty)

With China's new government in power, led by president Xi Jinping, the new prime minister Li Keqiang chose India as his first international visit, with the nominal objectives of reducing tensions in at least three areas: India/China border disputes, trade and commercial relations, and China-Pakistan relations. An analysis from the point of view of India indicates failures in all three areas.

China's Depsang Plain incursion

Li Keqiang's visit to India was overshadowed by a recent incident in the Depsang Plain region of the border between China and India. On April 15, China's military intruded 19 kilometers past the agreed "line of actual control" (LAC) that supposedly defines the India/China border, into the Depsang Plain. The intrusion threatened a 750 square km region whose access was blocked by China's military. According to Indian analysts, China's has used this technique frequently during the past few decades: Use the military to take control of a piece of Indian territory, then claim "indisputable" sovereignty via some distant historical claim -- the same technique that the Chinese have used time after time in the South China Sea.

From the Indian point of view, India forced the Chinese to retreat by resorting to diplomatic hardball: Specifically, the Indians threatened to cancel Li Keqiang's trip unless the Chinese pulled out, which they did. One may assume that India's victory will be short-lived, as China can return to its previous behavior now that Li's visit has ended. India Times and The Hindu

The results of Li Keqiang's visit to India

For the three nominal reasons for Li's visit to India, little or nothing was accomplished from the Indian point of view:

China refused to commit to a demarcation of the LAC boundary, which would presumably end boundary disputes like the Depsang plains incident, since China evidently wants to continue the technique of military incursions, followed by claims that the captured land is "indisputably" Chinese territory.

While trade between China and India has been growing rapidly and exponentially, the trade deficit, in China's favor, has been growing rapidly and exponentially as well. India exports raw materials to China, and China floods the Indian market with finished goods, thus sharply reducing India's manufacturing capacity. Li offered nothing to solve this problem, or to open Chinese markets to Indian products.

China ships massive amounts of weapons to Pakistan, everything from fighter aircraft to missiles to naval vessels, including a nuclear weapons program. These weapons will be used in India's approaching "two-front war" -- one front being China, the other being Pakistan.

The Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA) (New Delhi)

Syria's opposition fighters clash with Hezbollah in Lebanon

The Syria conflict continues to spill over into Lebanon where, for the first time, Syria's opposition fighters are carrying the fight into Lebanon, in response to last week's announcement by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that Hezbollah fighters would actively fight alongside the Syrian army in Syria. The clashes in Lebanon occur just as it appears that the Syrian army is close to winning a major victory in Qusair, Syria, where thousands of civilians are trapped and are under attack. Al-Jazeera and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jun-13 World View -- China's premier visits India, fails to solve any problems thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Jun-2013) Permanent Link
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