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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Jun-2013
6-Jun-13 World View -- Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair

Web Log - June, 2013

6-Jun-13 World View -- Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair

Thousands of American troops to Jordan for 'Eager Lion'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair


A Syrian army soldier sits inside a tank (AFP)
A Syrian army soldier sits inside a tank (AFP)

Syria's army scored a decisive victory on Wednesday in the strategic town of Qusair which controls major transportation routes in southwest Syria. According to the Syrian army:

"We will not hesitate to crush with an iron fist those who attack us. ... Their fate is surrender or death. We will continue our string of victories until we regain every inch of Syrian land. [The capture was] a clear message to all those participating in the aggression against Syria."

Analysts are saying that the capture of Qusair gives a tremendous boost to Hezbollah, which will now be empowered to continue openly fighting along side the Syrian regime's army. According to Lebanese retired general Hisham Jaber:

"Hezbollah will fight anywhere in Syria that requires guerrilla warfare tactics. It fought in Qusair because street battles were required there, and I do not rule out the possibility that it will join more street battles in Aleppo as well. The Syrian army is incapable of fighting street battles."

A Hezbollah supporter, Lebanese retired Gen. Amin Hoteit, agreed:

"The equation is clear, Syria is being subjected to Western aggression spearheaded by Israel. This means that Hezbollah is actually fighting Israel and it is ready to do this anywhere in Syria.

By joining the war, Hezbollah and Syria are affirming the strategy of the resistance axis, which is ... together we confront the same danger."

The Qusair represents a major victory for Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, for Hizbollah's leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and for Russia's president Vladimir Putin. Daily Star (Beirut) and Daily Star (Beirut)

Assad's Qusair victory renews debate about military intervention

The gloating by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's terrorist group Hezbollah is raising nationalist fervor outside of Syria, and is renewing the debate whether the West should intervene military.

Both Susan Rice and Samantha Power, both of whom were given national security promotions on Wednesday by the Obama Administration, have been advocates in the past of military intervention in the Darfur crisis civil war. As I've written in the past, military intervention in Darfur would have been a disastrous error. (See "Senator Joe Biden wants to move troops from Iraq to Darfur civil war" from 2007.)

So at the very least, these two women's appointments can be expected to heat up the debate whether America should intervene militarily, especially after the humiliation of seeing Russia's clients score a critical victory against America's clients.

There is already a bitter division in the cabinet of Britain's prime minister David Cameron. Cameron himself favors military intervention, but at least five members of his capability oppose intervention, argue that supplying weapons to the Free Syrian Army might only escalate the conflict, killing many more people, without any realistic prospect of providing a decisive victory for the rebels.

Analysts that I heard on Wednesday are split on the significance of the regime's Qusair victory, with some downplaying the significance of Qusair, and others saying that it's important, but its loss is part of the "ebb and flow" of the war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, one must recognize the possibility that al-Assad's Qusair victory may lead to the complete collapse of the rebel side. As I've written many, many times, Syria is in a generational Awakening era, like America in the 1960s, with little desire among the Syrian people for a war. The war has been propelled entirely by the psychopathic president Bashar al-Assad, with heavy weapons supplied by Russia and Iran, and guerilla fighters supplied by Hezbollah. Without that outside support, al-Assad's army would have collapsed long ago. But with that support, it's the rebel side that vulnerable to collapse, and that collapse may be close.

In that event, there are almost certainly going to be bitter recriminations in the West, as this will be the third such loss that might be blamed on the Obama administration:

The politics of this situation cannot easily be predicted, but Americans do not like to lose wars, or even appear to have lost wars, especially to dictators and terrorists. It's possible that the loss of Syria will trigger a nationalistic backlash in America, and a renewal of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Bloomberg and Independent (London)

Thousands of American troops to Jordan for 'Eager Lion'

There are various reports about thousands of American soldiers, as well as F-16 warplanes, Patriot missile systems, being deployed to Jordan this week. These deployments are being ignored by the mainstream media, but they're not secret either, as they're part of a long-scheduled military exercise called "Eager Lion 2013," scheduled for later this month. The exercise will involve about 8,000 personnel. About 5,000 of those will be U.S., and about 3,000 will be Jordanian. Other participating countries include Britain, Bahrain, Canada, the Czech Republic, Egypt, France, Iraq, Italy, Lebanon, Pakistan, Poland, Qatar, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

The heavy involvement of American forces and equipment is raising questions about whether something further is planned besides the military exercises. Possibilities include: military intervention in Syria, providing heavy weapons to the Syrian rebels, simply sending a message to Russia, Iran and al-Assad, or providing military support for Jordan, an American ally. Debka and UPI and Army.mil

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jun-13 World View -- Syria and Hezbollah gloat over victory in town of Qusair thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (6-Jun-2013) Permanent Link
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