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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Jul-2013
7-Jul-13 World View -- Mohamed Morsi's replacement in Egypt may be 'better' for Israel

Web Log - July, 2013

7-Jul-13 World View -- Mohamed Morsi's replacement in Egypt may be 'better' for Israel

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Egypt's opposing camps plan large rival protests on Sunday

Mohammed ElBaradei, who was appointed Egypt's PM on Saturday, and then fired (AP)
Mohammed ElBaradei, who was appointed Egypt's PM on Saturday, and then fired (AP)

The two opposing camps of protesters -- the one cheering the coup that led to the ouster of president Mohamed Morsi, versus the one bitterly angry about the coup and demanding Morsi's reinstatement -- are planning rival demonstrations on Sunday.

The coalition supporting Morsi's reinstatement is led by the Muslim Brotherhood and is called the National Alliance in Support of Legitimacy, and is calling for mass rallies to "Protect the Revolution." When this coalition uses the term "legitimacy," it refers to the election of Morsi as president in a legitimate election.

The "Tamarod" or "Rebel" anti-Morsi campaign is also calling for Sunday protests to defend what they call "popular legitimacy." For them, "legitimacy" refers to the demands of millions of Egyptian citizens. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Jazeera

Political drama over appointment of ElBaradei as Egypt's PM

There was a fair amount of political drama on Saturday, when it was announced that Mohamed ElBaradei would be sworn in as Egypt's new prime minister. ElBaradei is well known internationally for his work as former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, for which he won a Nobel peace prize. In Egypt's political context he's considered a liberal. He was very popular in Egypt for supporting the overthrow of Hosni Mubarak, but he disappointed his followers because of his apparent disinterest in following up politically.

So a lot of people were questioning why he accepted an appointment as PM on Saturday, given his previous disinterest. However, his appointment as PM was withdrawn a few hours later when the al-Nour party threatened to withdraw from the governing coalition. The al-Nour party is far more conservative than the more moderate Muslim Brotherhood, but they've joined the liberals and secularists in opposing the Muslim Brotherhood's rise to power. However, the appointment of ElBaradei was too much for them, and ElBaradei's appointment was doomed. Whatever the circumstances, this portends major divisions in the mixed coalition of Egyptian activists and politicians who supported the army's ouster of Mohamed Morsi. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Toronto Star

Mohamed Morsi's replacement in Egypt may be 'better' for Israel

Israel is officially silent about the events in Egypt, but some officials are applauding the ouster of Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi. Israel has good relations with Egypt's army, and there is a mutual dependence to prevent terrorist attacks in Sinai, near the border between Egypt and Israel. However, Israel's relations with Morsi have been much more difficult than the relations with the army. During Morsi's year in power, there have been some worrying developments. Morsi has refused to allow top Israeli officials into Egypt, has not appointed an ambassador to Israel, and has refused to allow Israel to rebuild its embassy in Cairo after the former embassy was destroying during riots. Israeli officials are hoping that a new Egyptian regime will be more friendly with Israel than the last one. Israel National News and AFP

Bond yields rising worldwide

A couple of days ago, I reported that eurozone finance ministers were beginning to panic because bond yields for Portugal and Spain have been spiking since the beginning of May, indicating the investors are selling Portuguese and Spanish bonds, and refusing to lend more money to those two countries. Well, it turns out that bond yields are rising for a number of European countries, and also for U.S. Treasuries. This may mean nothing, or it may mean something. But if it means something, then here's what that something could be: It could be that large over-leveraged investors have been losing money in the stock market, and are being forced to raise cash quickly to cover their debt margins, and so they're selling their most liquid asset, government bonds, which pushes bond prices down and yields up. If that's true, then it could be an early sign of a bigger selloff in stock markets in the weeks to come.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jul-13 World View -- Mohamed Morsi's replacement in Egypt may be 'better' for Israel thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Jul-2013) Permanent Link
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