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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Aug-2013
12-Aug-13 World View -- Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control

Web Log - August, 2013

12-Aug-13 World View -- Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control

Palestinians accuse Israel of sabotaging 'peace process'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Al-Qaeda takes credit for Iraq's unraveling security chaos


Remains of Baghdad cafe after being struck by one of a dozen car bombs on Saturday (AFP)
Remains of Baghdad cafe after being struck by one of a dozen car bombs on Saturday (AFP)

Al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has recently changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (referring to Syria), is taking credit for a series of car bombs in mainly Shia areas of Baghdad on Saturday that killed 90 people and wounded hundreds. Attacks have increased in every month since the withdrawal of American troops in December 2011, alongside the increasing strength of al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra in Syria. More than 1,000 Iraqis were killed in bombings and shootings in July, making it the deadliest month since violence between Sunni and Shia Muslims peaked prior to President Bush's military "surge", in conjunction with the Anbar Awakening that drove out al-Qaeda in Iraq. These new attacks come just weeks after al-Qaeda in Iraq succeeded through an assault on Abu Ghraib prison to free hundreds of prisoners, including leading al-Qaeda fighters.

The following is my transcription of a BBC interview with BBC Arabic correspondent Murad al-Shishani on Sunday:

"Al-Qaeda in Iraq [AQIR] have been increasing their attacks every month since the withdrawal of the Americans. We're expecting a statement from AQIR bragging about this accomplishment. Since the 2007 Anbar Awakening, AQIR has been losing influence, but with the crisis in Syria, AQIR has been given geographic spaces and a recruitment pool. The increases in attacks in Iraq mean that they have logistic support and manpower support coming from Syria, from their counterpart jihadist groups.

From Anbar in the western part of Iraq, up to the northwestern part of Syria in Aleppo, there's a sort of strip there of ungoverned space that al-Qaeda is working there. AQIR recently changed name to Islamic State of Iraq and Levant. This geographic space gives them a recruitment pool, and gives them a strategic space to hide in and prepare for attacks, as well as to receive support from the Sunni communities there, on either side of the border."

Al-Jazeera and Washington Times

Siege of Egypt's pro-Morsi supporters may begin on Monday

Media reports from several sources say that Egypt's security forces will begin dispersal of thousands of pro-Morsi supporters on Monday morning. The plan for the initial phase, according to unconfirmed sources, is a siege, where security forces block all entrances to the protest areas, allowing people out, but not allowing them back in, nor allowing any food or other supplies in. There have been massive protests and sit-ins every day since president Mohamed Morsi was ousted by the army, and held in detention at an unknown location. The protesters are demanding that Morsi be freed and returned to the presidency, and that his Muslim Brotherhood party be returned to power. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

Palestinians accuse Israel of sabotaging 'peace process'

With Israeli / Palestinian "peace process" negotiations set to resume on Wednesday, Palestinian negotiators Saeb Erekat and Muhammad Shtayyeh accused Israel of aiming to sabotage the talks by announcing plans to build 1,200 more settlement apartments in Jerusalem and in regions of the West Bank that Israel captured in the 1967 war. According to Shtayyeh:

"It is clear that the Israeli government is deliberately attempting to sabotage US and International efforts to resume negotiations by approving more settlement units three days before the first Palestinian – Israeli meeting.

Israel continues to use peace negotiations as a smoke screen for more settlement construction. The Israeli government is showing the world that the only way to achieve piece is justice, meaning end of Israel’s impunity.

Israel has been claiming that they want negotiations without ‘conditions,’ but on the ground is clear that they are the only ones imposing conditions: to negotiate with settlement construction, creating new conditions on the ground in order to pre-empt the result of any negotiations.

We call upon the United States and the rest of the international community to hold Israel accountable in order to give a chance for peace."

However, Israel says that the new settlements do not have effect on the peace talks, because they're all in places which, according to previous agreements, will remain part of Israel. According to Israeli spokesman Mark Regev:

"[The construction] in no way changes the final map of peace.

The construction decided upon in Jerusalem and in the settlement blocs is in areas that will remain part of Israel in any possible peace agreement."

On Tuesday, Israel will release the first 26 of the 104 prisoners, all of whom are jailed for terrorist acts committed prior to the 1994 peace talks. Israel has promised to release all 104 over nine months, provided that the "peace process" negotiations continue. Some Palestinians are referring to those terms as "blackmail," since they prevent the Palestinians from walking out of the negotiations before the nine months are up. Jerusalem Post and BBC

Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control


There are 1.4 million people in Darfur refugee camps
There are 1.4 million people in Darfur refugee camps

Warfare between the Arab Maaliya and Rezeigat tribes in the Darfur region of Sudan has been spreading, with hundreds of people killed in recent weeks. There were 1.4 million people living in refugee camps at the beginning of 2013, and an estimated 300,000 people have been displaced from their homes so far in this year's surge of violence. Two other Arab tribes, the Misseriya and Salamat, announced a ceasefire two weeks ago after more than 200 people had been killed.

The mainstream press keeps describing the Darfur war as having begun in 2003, and that's complete nonsense.

Darfur's civil war began as low-level violence in the 1970s as a fairly standard conflict between farmers and herders. What always happens is that the herders' animals trample on the farmers' crops, and then the farmers build fences to block the herders' animals. The violence worsened over the years, and the conflict transitioned to a generational crisis war in 2003, with the light-skinned "Arab" Janjaweed militia herders slaughtering the dark-skinned "non-Arab" farmers. That's when the United Nations "discovered" Darfur, and launched a donation-based program to protect the farmers from the herders. So the farmers were moved into huge refugee tent camps where they became entirely dependent on aid and donations from foreign entities.

For a detailed generational analysis of the war in Darfur, as well as a chuckle or two, see "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming" from 2007.

The financial crisis has reduced donations, and starvation is widespread in the Darfur refugee camps. Furthermore, Sudan's government is refusing to renew permits for some of the United Nations' international humanitarian staff in Darfur. And now, the fighting between the "Arab" tribes indicates that Khartoum is losing control of the Janjaweed militias.

As I've been writing for years, a generational crisis war is an elemental force of nature, and has to reach a climax. At some point, the Janjaweed militias will return to finish the job, slaughtering the "non-Arab" refugees like fish in a barrel. That will finally end the Darfur war. AFP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Aug-13 World View -- Darfur fighting spreads as Janjaweed militias spin out of control thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Aug-2013) Permanent Link
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