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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Aug-2013
21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

Web Log - August, 2013

21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis
Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt
Israel fortifies border as jihadism grows in Sinai

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

Morsi supporters hold posters with Morsi's face and words in Arabic that read 'No to the coup' on Monday (AP)

Morsi supporters hold posters with Morsi's face and words in Arabic that read 'No to the coup' on Monday (AP)

Since the July 3 Army coup that ousted president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government from power, it increasingly appears that the Army's aggressive attack on the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) organization is having some success:

After last week's massive burst of violent massacres that resulted in almost 1,000 deaths, mostly of MB supporters, MB officials have to face the reality that, although most officials in the international community have condemned the army's violence, most of Egypt's public is blaming MB, rather than the army. Even the strict Salafist parties, who are even more conservative than MB, are not supporting MB, undoubtedly hoping to gain from MB's demise.

As a result, MB has called off several marches, rather than risk additional massacres of their own supporters. No one is discounting the possibility of further violence, but at this moment, MB feels pressured to back off.

Another burst of violence by activists last weekend resulting in the burning down of hundreds of Coptic Christian churches, monasteries and schools. Several Christians were also killed, but a Burma-type massacre did not occur. This appears, in retrospect, to be a somewhat desperate attempt to stir up more violence, and if that was the intent, once again it failed.

The Army has also been successful in decapitating MB's organization leadership. On Tuesday, MB's Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie was arrested and charged with inciting violence and managing a group which incites violent crimes against the state and its citizens. This follows a wave of other arrests in the last month of top MB officials and leaders who face similar charges.

Mohamed Morsi is widely recognized as having been a failure as President of Egypt. Even many of those who oppose the Army's coup agree that Morsi's use of dictatorial powers to force the country to accept an MB constitution, an MB parliament and MB version of the strictest Sharia law was a disaster. Morsi is still being detained by the Army in an undisclosed location, and while the international community has called for his release, there is little outrage among the Egyptian public.

The MB's fall from grace from the highest of heights when Morsi was in power to the current lowest of lows has been spectacular, and it leaves the MB with few choices, none of them pleasant.

The most obvious choice is increased violence, which would inevitably see the MB team up with al-Qaeda linked jihadists. Jihadist organizations are calling for this, of course, but the Egyptian public is already wary of MB violence, and would take any link with jihadists to be a sign that the Army should have leave to crush the MB even further.

The other major possibility was called by one analyst a "return to the Golden Era." The MB has been an illegal organization since 1952, and quite used to being in that position, playing the victim, and using its membership to serve as a humanitarian organization within Egypt. The MB has been a disastrous failure at governing, but they've always been extremely successful in the victim role, non-violent, and actually a positive force in Egyptian society.

Right now, MB is reconstituting its leadership, and deciding a new direction. It's worth repeating what I've said several times in the last couple of weeks: It is my expectation that there will be NO civil war between those who support and those who oppose the Muslim Brotherhood. Today, it looks like the MB is suffering an identity crisis, and will have to decide what kind of organization it wants to be, and what kind of direction it wants to go in: violence and jihadism versus humanitarianism and victimhood. I'd bet on the latter. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and VOA

Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt

The political chaos in Egypt has also caused political chaos in Turkey. Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had seen the "Arab Awakening" that began in 2011 as an opportunity to advance conservative Islam throughout the Mideast, and the victory of Mohamed Morsi as president was viewed as a major opportunity. The ousting of Morsi has personally infuriated Erdogan, and he expressed his fury on Tuesday:

"What is said about Egypt? That democracy is not the ballot box. Who is behind this? Israel is. We have the evidence in our hands. That's exactly what happened. ...
If we stay silent in the face of the coup in Egypt, we will not have the right to say something if they [the Israelis] set the same trap for us in the future."

The evidence Erdogan was referring to was a 2011 video of a press conference by Israeli Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and French philosopher and author Bernard-Henri Levy, in which Levy says:

"If the Muslim Brotherhood arrives in Egypt, I will not say democracy wants it, so let democracy progress. Democracy is not only elections, it is also values. [With regard to Israel's use of military power,] I will urge the prevention of them [the MB] coming to power, but by all sorts of means."

Erdogan also stepped up his criticisms of other Muslim countries that have not adopted strict Muslim teachings, and especially the Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait) that gave $16 billion to post-coup Egypt:

"The Islamic world is like the brothers of the Prophet Yusuf, who threw him down the well. As in the case of the brothers of the Prophet Yusuf, Allah will shame those in the Islamic world betraying their brothers and sisters in Egypt."

Erdogan's statements infuriated Egyptian officials, who accused Erdogan of making false statements to harm Egypt's national unity. According to an official statement by Egypt's cabinet:

"Egypt is running out of patience. ... Egypt does not share anyone’s hostility [and its] Arab and Islamic identity are clear."

Erdogan's statements also received sharp rebukes from officials in Washington and the European Union. Zaman (Istanbul) and Al Ahram (Cairo) and Debka

Israel fortifies border as jihadism grows in Sinai

The chaos resulting from the July 3 ouster of Egypt's president Mohamed Morsi has caused convulsions in Cairo and opportunities for jihadists on the border with Israel in Egypt's Sinai region. The border between Israel and Egypt has been relatively quiet for decades, but now Israel's army is beefing up its patrols along the border. According to one Israeli analyst:

"The militants in Sinai will try to drag Israel into the conflict, so we need to contain their activities. If a rocket falls on a hillside in Israel, and no-one is hurt, then we can bear that. But if a rocket falls on a hotel in Eilat, then Israel will have to retaliate. That is a situation we need to avoid."

NBC News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Aug-2013) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Aug-2013 21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis

Turkey's Erdogan blames Israel for the coup, infuriating Egypt

Israel fortifies border as jihadism grows in Sinai

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Aug-2013
21-Aug-13 World View -- Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood faces identity crisis