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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sep-2013
1-Sep-13 World View -- U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria

Web Log - September, 2013

1-Sep-13 World View -- U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria

Cassandra, Winston Churchill, and me

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

President Obama announces major retreat on Syria issue
History's 'Peace in our time' from 1938 repeats itself
Russia's Putin calls the accusations 'utter nonsense'
Winston Churchill, Cassandra and me

President Obama announces major retreat on Syria issue

Lots of unhappy faces in this official White House Situation Room photo from Saturday

Lots of unhappy faces in this official White House Situation Room photo from Saturday

United States foreign policy went into complete chaos on Saturday, after President Barack Obama announced a major retreat on military action in Syria:

"Now, after careful deliberation, I have decided that the United States should take military action against Syrian regime targets. This would not be an open-ended intervention. We would not put boots on the ground. Instead, our action would be designed to be limited in duration and scope. But I'm confident we can hold the Assad regime accountable for their use of chemical weapons, deter this kind of behavior, and degrade their capacity to carry it out.
Our military has positioned assets in the region. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has informed me that we are prepared to strike whenever we choose. Moreover, the Chairman has indicated to me that our capacity to execute this mission is not time-sensitive; it will be effective tomorrow, or next week, or one month from now. And I'm prepared to give that order.
But having made my decision as Commander-in-Chief based on what I am convinced is our national security interests, I'm also mindful that I'm the President of the world's oldest constitutional democracy. I've long believed that our power is rooted not just in our military might, but in our example as a government of the people, by the people, and for the people. And that's why I've made a second decision: I will seek authorization for the use of force from the American people's representatives in Congress."

This is a sharp reversal from earlier Administration statements that the White House would not seek Congressional approval before proceeding.

It's thought that Obama retreated because of public polls that show that almost 80% of all Americans are opposed to the military action, with bitter splits in both the Republican and Democratic parties, triggering anti-war protests in cities around the world. Republicans have been especially critical of the weakness of the planned "pin prick," sending cruise missiles that would, according to critics, accomplish nothing except make Obama feel better.

President Obama could call Congress back immediately, but instead will wait until Congress is back in scheduled session on September 9. That means that any military strike, if it occurs at all, will be delayed for several weeks.

President Obama's retreat is in sharp contrast to the strong words in Friday's statement by Secretary of State John Kerry:

"It matters because if we choose to live in a world where a thug and a murderer like Bashar al-Assad can gas thousands of his own people with impunity, even after the United States and our allies said no, and then the world does nothing about it, there will be no end to the test of our resolve and the dangers that will flow from those others who believe that they can do as they will."

If President Obama had said from the start that he would ask for a vote from Congress as, for example, President George Bush did before the Iraq action, then there probably wouldn't be an issue.

But having initially said that he would go ahead on his own, now throwing this foreign policy decision into a bitterly divided dysfunctional Congress is going to postpone a decision, but won't resolve any issues. Anti-war protests will increase substantially, Bashar al-Assad will use the time to protect his assets, and the exact form that the military action will take will be openly debated for the next month. It's far from clear that Congress will approve any military action, which means that Obama's "decision" to go ahead will be annulled -- which means that he hasn't made any decision after all. It's hard to believe that this retreat is anything but a way to avoid making a decision and blame it on Congress.

This is one more chaotic flip-flop in a foreign policy that's already in chaos. After a year of major retreats and flip-flops on announced "red lines" in Syria, a recent announced Afghanistan peace process that collapsed within 24 hours, a recent announced Mideast peace process that almost everyone in the Mideast considers a joke, and now a major flip-flop on Syria intervention, there is no reason to believe that President Obama or anyone on his foreign policy team has the vaguest clue what's going on in the world. NPR and NBC News

History's 'Peace in our time' from 1938 repeats itself

Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with Hitler, promising "Peace in our time," holding up a signed agreement

Neville Chamberlain, returning from a 1938 meeting with Hitler, promising "Peace in our time," holding up a signed agreement

Throughout my life I've heard teachers and politicians ridicule Britain's prime minister Neville Chamberlain who, in 1938, returned from a meeting with the psychopathic Adolf Hitler with a promise of "Peace in our time." I've heard Chamberlain's name reviled for decades, for having "appeased" Hitler. It's personally astonishing to me to see the same kind of thing happen with the psychopathic Bashar al-Assad.

It's worth repeating a couple of sentences from the lengthy statement from Britain's Lord Paddy Ashdown that I reported yesterday:

"But we should just remember that when Neville Chamberlain came back from Munich with the peace of paper that said 'Peace in our time,' he was the most popular prime minister before or since we've ever had. And Churchill was deeply unpopular. Which of these two proved to be right?"

Like Neville Chamberlain's appeasement, Barack Obama's reversal is going to be extremely popular, given the strong public opposition to the Syria intervention. But making decisions based on polls can solve problems temporarily, but create greater problems later on.

Whether we like it or not, America is policeman of the world, and has been since the end of World War II. People always ask me the question, "Who made us policemen of the world?" So it's worth taking a moment to answer that question.

The U.S. became Policeman of the World with the Truman Doctrine, put forth by President Harry Truman in 1947:

"This is a serious course upon which we embark. I would not recommend it except that the alternative is much more serious. The United States contributed $341,000,000,000 toward winning World War II. This is an investment in world freedom and world peace. The assistance that I am recommending for Greece and Turkey amounts to little more than 1 tenth of 1 percent of this investment. It is only common sense that we should safeguard this investment and make sure that it was not in vain. The seeds of totalitarian regimes are nurtured by misery and want. They spread and grow in the evil soil of poverty and strife. They reach their full growth when the hope of a people for a better life has died"

President John F. Kennedy, in his inaugural address in 1961, echoed the Truman Doctrine:

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and the success of liberty. This much we pledge -- and more."

Since WW II, we've signed mutual defense treaties with numerous countries, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand (ANZUS treaty), the Philippines, Israel, Europe, Iceland, and others. All of these countries have cut back on their own military in the last 65 years because they've counted on U.S. protection. President Obama's foreign policy has made a number of countries doubt that their mutual defense treaty with the United States is worth anything.

With regard to Syria, thanks to 2 1/2 years of weakness on the part of the Policeman of the World, we already see a gathering of powerful forces in the region. On the one side, we see Russia supplying powerful weapons to Syria, with thousands of soldiers being supplied by Iran and Hezbollah. On the other we see Saudi Arabia and other Arab states becoming increasingly concerned about the slaughter of Sunni Muslims by Syria, Russia and Iran. We also see Sunni jihadists from Pakistan to Nigeria to Dagestan being trained for combat in Syria.

When the policeman stops doing his job, violence and chaos break out. We see this in Chicago's South Side, and we see it in the Mideast.

Russia's Putin calls the accusations 'utter nonsense'

Russia's president Vladimir Putin said the following on Saturday:

"Syrian government troops are on the offensive and have the opposition contained within several areas. In this situation, to give those calling for intervention such a trump card is utter nonsense. ...
Regarding the position of our American colleagues, who affirm that government troops used chemical weapons, and say that they have proof, well, let them show it to the United Nations inspectors and the Security Council. If they don't show it, that means there is none."

A lot of this is laughable. Russia feels free to invade anyone it wishes, without requesting Security Council approval. In fact, Russia still has troops in Georgia after Russia's 2008 invasion, and has, in effect, annexed two of Georgia's provinces, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. All this was done with no public debate and no authorization from the United Nations or any international body.

In fact, Russia's policy since the Libyan action has been to use the United Nations to cripple NATO and the United States, leaving it free to pursue any military operations it wants. The policy has been astonishingly successful. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics")

Here's what I wrote in 2011:

"However, now that the military action is turning into a stalemate of indefinite duration, Russia is realizing a number of political objectives, including the ability to cripple Nato through United Nations politics. ...
Russia plans to demand that Nato restrict its activities to only the humanitarian acts allowed by the UN resolution, and then veto any attempt to expand the resolution in the Security Council, in order to guarantee a continued stalemate in Libya.
This will set a precedent that allows Russia to effectively control future activities of Nato, since only activities approved by the Security Council, and hence by Russia, could ever be permitted.
Moscow has a broader interest in seeing the US and NATO tied down in wars of choice and other protracted confrontations. These wars increase Russia�s leeway for action in ex-Soviet territories, which is Russia's top priority, according to the article. Furthermore, if Libya's oil exports are stopped, then Russia's own oil exports become more valuable."

This policy has been followed for three years, and is wildly successful.

Winston Churchill, Cassandra and me

When Churchill spoke about what the Nazis were doing, he was ridiculed and disbelieved. When Hitler proved Chamberlain disastrously wrong, Churchill became Prime Minister, and is viewed by history as one of the great heroes of the 20th century. However, the moment the war ended, Churchill was still so reviled that he couldn't even win an election in his own district.

[Correction from a reader: Churchill won his district, but his Conservative party lost so many seats to Clement Atlee's Labour party in 1946 that Labour was able to name the Prime Minister - which is not an elective office in Britain. And Churchill kept on winning his district until he retired at age 89.] (Paragraph added. 1-Sep)

We now know what happened in the 1930s, because exactly the same thing is happening today, with people in Washington totally oblivious to what's going on.

I identify very closely with the mythical Cassandra. Zeus fell in love with her, and gave her a gift: The ability to accurately foretell the future. When she spurned him, he cursed her by allowing her to keep her gift of accurately foretelling the future, but no one would believe anything she said. She was disbelieved and ridiculed when she warned about the Trojan Horse, but she was ignored, and the people were massacred. After the war was over she was reviled and raped, similar to what happened to Churchill, though more violent. Later, Cassandra became King Agamemnon's mistress, and she told him that his wife, Clytemnestra, would kill them both. He didn't believe her, and Clytemnestra killed them both.

I am the living embodiment of Cassandra, but not good looking like her. Generational Dynamics has not exactly made me popular. I'm shunned even by some people that I've known since college. So the story of what's happened to Cassandra is exactly what's happened to me, which indicates that the ancient Greeks discovered some eternal truths.

But popular or not, in the past ten years, Generational Dynamics has been right, just as Winston Churchill was right.

I've received a lot of criticism in the past week, from people on the left and right calling me names and accusing me of advocating an invasion of Syria. Actually, I've never recommended anything of the sort. I'm an analyst, and I rarely recommend anything. I apply the Generational Dynamics methodology to tell what's going on, and whether you like it or not, for the last ten years my forecasts and analyses have been shown to be the most accurate in the world, more accurate than any web site, journalist, analyst and politician.

Some people, sycophants of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, criticize me for calling him a psychopath. But what I've seen is that we're dealing with two psychopathic leaders -- al-Assad and Putin -- both worthy of being perpetrators on a tv show like "Criminal Minds." But instead of mutilating and dismembering one person at a time, they're doing it on a mass scale. And instead of a small FBI profile team finding and arresting the perpetrator, an entire armed force will be required to stop Syria's atrocities. Fortunately or unfortunately, the United States is still policeman of the world, and whether we like it or not, we're going to be forced militarily to deal with the Syria situation sooner or later. Obama's flip-flop will only make it worse.

However, I will make one recommendation to my readers: Don't go too far out on a limb being a supporter of Bashar al-Assad, because history tells us that this is a man whose life is not going to end well.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Sep-13 World View -- U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Sep-2013) Permanent Link
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