	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sep-2013
2-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue

Web Log - September, 2013

2-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue

Egypt's Mohamed Morsi accused of inciting violence

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue
Egypt's Mohamed Morsi accused of inciting violence

President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue

Vladimir Putin and a scowling Barack Obama at their June, 2012 meeting (AP)

Vladimir Putin and a scowling Barack Obama at their June, 2012 meeting (AP)

The Syria crisis has apparently turned into an existential crisis for the presidency of Barack Obama, as he shifts gears to prepare for continuing speeches and briefings in an effort to get Congressional approval for military action in Syria. ( "1-Sep-13 World View -- U.S. foreign policy in chaos as Obama reverses himself on Syria")

The issue has deeply divided the public in both political parties, with polls showing almost 80% opposing any intervention at all. However, President Obama has now personally committed both himself and the country to military action, and he will be bringing all of his speech-giving and community organizer skills to bear on getting approval from Congress, as he did for Obamacare.

Secretary of State John Kerry appeared on all of the Sunday morning news shows, looking like he hadn't slept in two days, which may well be the case after President Obama pulled the rug out from under him.

Republicans have been vitriolically critical of Obama for several days, criticizing his handling of the Syria issue, and his plan for a military strike with cruise missiles that would accomplish nothing but boost his ego.

But now, even Obama's supporters are questioning his competence as president. This was apparent on Sunday from the comments of reporters on CNN who have always been totally in the tank for Obama -- up until now.

The last time that I wrote about CNN political analyst David Gergen was in 2009 in the article "Vile 'teabagging' jokes signal the deterioration of CNN and NBC news".

So it was quite surprising on CNN on Sunday to hear him question Barack Obama's competence as President, in an interview along with President Bush's Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns. Gergen was asked what Obama is going to say to Russia's president Vladimir Putin when they both attend the G20 meeting in St. Petersburg next week, and they face each other "eye to eye":

"DAVID GERGEN: Whatever it is, it's going to be frosty on both sides. I don't think they will talk very much. I think a risk, and Nick was pointing out some of the risks, there is a very definite risk that Russia now will step up its armaments of the Syrians in preparation for an attack.
After all, this is their friend [al-Assad]. They are going to say this is a wrongful action with no international support, illegal internationally and we're going to step it up.
So there are those risks, I think. I think the bigger risk, and what the president has got to work on here, is that you can say it's wise to have call for the Congress to do this, but the way he went about it, it was so jerky and unpredictable, that I think it's raised questions about just how firm a grip he has on the wheel as a commander in chief.
After all, starting with the drawing of the red line itself, which seemed to be sort of almost by the way, it's a red line, as opposed to a well thought-out plan, and now we have no apparent strategy for long term in the Middle East. Nick knows this better than I do.
But presidents need to be seen in control of events and guiding events, and not just reacting or bouncing around. I'd welcome Nick's views.
NICHOLAS BURNS: I think David's right. The United States has to -- the administration has to regroup here. The Congress has to vote in favor of this resolution or else the credibility of the United States as a global power in the Middle East is going to be vastly reduced.
And it means also that the administration has to give the kind of powerful performance that Secretary Kerry gave this morning on all the Sunday shows. ... He gave a ringing endorsement for why it's important for us to act.
We have to see that kind of consistency, resolve and strength from the administration. That's what the world is looking for. It didn't see it this week. I hope we'll see it in the next week or two."

I think that I can honestly say that I never expected to hear David Gergen say anything remotely like, "the way he went about it, it was so jerky and unpredictable, that I think it's raised questions about just how firm a grip he has on the wheel as a commander in chief."

Nor would I ever have expected much criticism for Obama from CNN's commentator Fareed Zakaria, who has been totally in the tank for Obama until now:

"Last March, President Barack Obama spoke off-the-cuff about how Syria's use of chemical weapons would be a "game-changer." It has turned out to be, except not quite in the sense that he meant.
It has been an event that has confused and confounded the Obama administration. Whatever your views on the larger issues, it's hard not to conclude that the administration's handling of Syria over the last year has been a case study in how not to conduct foreign policy.
The president started out with an understanding that the Syrian conflict is a messy sectarian struggle that cannot be influenced easily by American military intervention. He was disciplined in resisting calls to jump into a cauldron.
But from the start, he confused and undermined this policy with loose rhetoric, perhaps egged on by some of his advisors and critics to "do something." So, he announced just over two years ago that President Bashar al-Assad of Syria had to go.
Now, a pundit can engage in grandiose rhetoric. The president of the United States should make declarations like that only if he has some strategy to actually achieve it. He did not.
In truth, Obama and many others miscalculated. They believed that Assad's regime was near the end, misreading both its strength and brutality, but also the level of support it has from several segments of Syrian society.
Then, just about a year ago, came the off-the-cuff remarks about a red line on chemical weapons, insufficiently thought through but now publicly stated and definitive.
Since then, American foreign policy in Syria has largely been concerned about ensuring that Obama's threat does not seem empty. After all, what American national interest is being followed?
The administration says it is upholding international law. Except, as Fred Kaplan points out in Slate, the institutions that embody international law and consensus, the United Nations and other international organizations, do not support this action.
The United States plus France and Turkey cannot be considered the embodiment of international law and global public opinion.
The nature of the strike, we are told, will be short and symbolic, a shot across the bow, in the midst of a civil war in which both sides are in a high-stakes struggle for survival.
Does anyone think that this will make any difference? And then, the strangest twist, an unplanned, last minute appeal to Congress, paving the way for further delay, weakening momentum, erasing what little surprise existed, and setting the stage for a potential defeat at home.
I don't think that this strike, should it eventually take place, will be as damaging as its critics fear. The Assad regime will likely hunker down, take it, and move on.
It will make little difference one way or the other. But the manner in which the Obama administration has first created and then mismanaged this crisis will, alas, cast a long shadow on America's role in the world."

Many analysts are predicting that President Obama will win Congressional approval because there's so much at stake, in that a defeat would be devastating to his international credibility and the international credibility of the entire nation. The result is that Democrats will fall into line behind the President, and enough Republicans will support military action to gain Congressional approval.

Ironically, Obama will be going into "Obamacare mode" at a time when Obamacare itself is under fire, having suffered a series of disastrous setbacks. (See "5-Jul-13 World View -- Eurozone and Obamacare continue their parallel economic collapse")

President Obama had expected to devote all his energies in September to selling Obamacare, to prevent a collapse of the "Obamacare exchanges," which are scheduled to open on October 1, but which are woefully behind schedule. He'll now have to split his community organizing and speech-making skills between Syria and Obamacare, and Republicans will be sure to demand concessions on one issue in exchange for support on the other issue. CNN-SOTU Transcript and CNN-Fareed Zakaria Transcript

Egypt's Mohamed Morsi accused of inciting violence

Former president Mohamed Morsi, who has been detained in an unknown location since he was deposed in an army coup on July 3, is now being charged in criminal court for ten deaths in clashes between his Muslim Brotherhood supporters and his opponents, after he assumed dictatorial powers in a constitutional decree. Morsi and 14 members of his presidential staff have been accused of ordering their supporters to attack peaceful protesters who assembled outside the presidential palace to denounce his decree. The move reportedly came after the republican guards and ministry of interior refused to obey orders to attack protesters. Al-Ahram (Cairo)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Sep-2013) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sep-2013 2-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue

President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue

Egypt's Mohamed Morsi accused of inciting violence

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sep-2013
2-Sep-13 World View -- President Obama goes into 'Obamacare mode' over Syria issue