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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-2013
29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai

Web Log - November, 2013

29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai

China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai
China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea
U.S. and Japan conduct huge naval exercise off island of Okinawa

India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai

November 2008 26/11 attack on the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel in Mumbai

November 2008 26/11 attack on the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel in Mumbai

Almost exactly five years ago, on November 26, 2008, ten members of the Pakistani jihadist group, Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) landed on the Mumbai, India, shoreline, having traveled by boat from Karachi in Pakistan. What followed was a 60-hour shooting rampage, one of the most horrific terrorist attacks of the decade, killing 164 people. (See "Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba suspected in terrorist attack on Mumbai (Bombay), India" from 2008.)

Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had taken precautions to prevent the blame for the attack to traced back to them. The plan was that all the participating terrorists would fight to the death, and there would be no claim of responsibility. However, one of the gunmen was captured by Indian police during the attack (and later hanged), and two LeT leaders were captured by Indians and Americans after the attack, allowing interrogators to get full details about the operational planning. Furthermore, America's signals intelligence capability was able to find an electronic trail for the attack that led back not only to LeT, but also to Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. The most likely motive for the attack is now believed to be LeT's desire to develop closer relations with ISI, at the expense of other jihadist groups in Pakistan. In the aftermath, India was considering a military attack on LeT on Pakistan's soil, something that might have led to an India-Pakistan war, but this was headed off by hard intervention on both sides from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

As early as April 5, 2005, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had said:

"There can be no political compromise with terror. No inch conceded. No compassion shown… There are no good terrorists and bad terrorists. There is no cause, root or branch, that can ever justify the killing of innocent people. No democratic Government can tolerate the use of violence against innocent people and against the functionaries of a duly established democratic Government."

After the 26/11 Mumbai attack, there was a burst of counter-terrorism energy, but it dropped off quickly. Since then, virtually nothing has been done to strengthen counter-terrorism efforts.

In the meantime, LeT and its Indian counterpart, Indian Mujahideen (IM) "have enlarged their network and developed capabilities to carry out acts of terror at short notice in various parts of the country... Evidence gathered from various cases indicates Pakistan continues to nurture terrorist groups," according to Indian police officials.

With the breach in Mumbai 26/11 coming from the sea, there was enormous rhetorical focus on strengthening coastal security, and much was claimed by the government thereafter of measures taken to secure this objective. Five years later, however, it would be necessary to concede that, fitful efforts notwithstanding, India remains as vulnerable to terrorist attacks along its coastline as it was in 2008. South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and ISN Security Watch (Zurich) and Technorati

China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea

China sent its Su-30 and J-11 fighter jets on Thursday into its recently announced Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), accompanied by a KJ-2000 airborne radar early warning system. China's military said it sent the warplanes as a "defensive measure" to patrol the ADIZ and the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. China's move came hours after Japan and South Korea challenged China's claim to the ADIZ by sending their own warplanes into the zone, and that came two days after the U.S. did the same. These and other countries have refused to recognize the Chinese-declared ADIZ.

Chinese officials had initially reacted calmly to the U.S. overflights by simply acknowledging them and saying the Chinese military had monitored them without taking action. But that measured response quickly ignited fierce criticism by highly nationalistic Chinese bloggers. (See "28-Nov-13 World View -- Nationalistic bloggers ridicule China over America's B-52s") Pressure from the blogger community apparently forced the Beijing government to take more confrontational action.

The danger is that continued confrontations of this type will eventually lead to accidental or intentional combat, especially with nationalism growing in Japan as well as in China. My personal belief is that China would not want to stumble into a war this way. China is actively preparing for full-scale war with the United States, but they would want maximum surprise for maximum effectiveness. VOA and CNN

U.S. and Japan conduct huge naval exercise off island of Okinawa

USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier off Okinawa

USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier off Okinawa

USS George Washington nuclear powered aircraft carrier was back in combat mode after its recent detour to the Philippines to take part in the aid effort in the wake of Super Typhoon Haiyan. It's patrolling waters off the island of Okinawa as part of a huge naval exercise -- AnnualEx 2013 -- involving dozens of warships, submarines and aircraft from the U.S. Navy's 7th fleet and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The war games were planned long before China's ADIZ announcement last week, but the war games will not enter the ADIZ region. However, the increased tension in the East China Sea gives the annual war games special significance this year. CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Nov-2013) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-2013 29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai

India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai

China sends jets into air defense zone, after flights by U.S., Japan and S. Korea

U.S. and Japan conduct huge naval exercise off island of Okinawa

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-2013
29-Nov-13 World View -- India still vulnerable 5 years after '26/11' terrorist attack on Mumbai