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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Dec-2013
3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

Web Log - December, 2013

3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved

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What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved
Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved

Thailand's PM Yingluck Shinawatra

Thailand's PM Yingluck Shinawatra

In yesterday's report, "2-Dec-13 World View -- Thailand again in crisis as anti-government rioters issue two-day ultimatum" I indicated that I was puzzled about what the anti-government Thai-Chinese activist Suthep Thaugsuban wanted, when he said that he wants "to return power to the people." If he meant the resignation of prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, the result would be a new election, and Thai-Thai indigenous people, who make up the vast majority of the population, would simply elect a new Thaksin Shinawatra ally.

Well, on Monday the solution to the conundrum was revealed. Suthep is demanding that Yingluck resign, and that a new "People's Council" select the next prime minister. Presumably, this People's Council would be packed with Thai-Chinese proponents. This is the only way the indigenous people can be defeated in an election. However, it doesn't seem to me that this will "return power to the people" in any way.

Yingluck responded: "Anything I can do to make people happy, I am willing to do... but as prime minister, what I can do must be under the constitution."

Thailand is in a very dangerous situation. The market-dominant light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite do not wish to give up any power, but they're vastly outnumbered by the dark-skinned Thai-Thai who do most of the menial labor. If Suthep succeeds in getting his "People's Council," and he controls the election of the next PM, then expect a new wave of anti-government protests again in a few months, this time by the "red shirt" Thai-Thai. Bangkok Post

Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

At least 100,000 anti-government protesters packed Independence Square ("the Maidan") in Kiev, Ukraine, on Sunday, demanding the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovich. More than 200 people were hurt when police used tear gas and flash grenades, after some marchers tried to storm a government building. Video has emerged showing police brutally beating protesters and journalists with clubs. The riots continued through the night and into Monday evening, forcing riot police to line up to protect the office of the president.

The riots were triggered when Yanukovich did a highly visible flip-flop on signing a trade agreement with the European Union, evidently because of pressure by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, as we reported two weeks ago.

The riots are reminiscent of the "Orange Revolution" of 2004, when the same Viktor Yanukovich was forced to leave office by the same kinds of riots, when hundreds of thousands of people demanded his resignation. (See "East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two" from 2004.)

What the 2004 riots and the 2013 riots have in common is that they are a clash between two ethnic groups. The majority of the population are ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the western part of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupying the east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent there by Stalin after World War II in order to "Russify" Ukraine.

East/West Ukraine split in the 2004 Presidential vote that led to the Orange Revolution. (BBC)

East/West Ukraine split in the 2004 Presidential vote that led to the Orange Revolution. (BBC)

I took another look at my 2004 article on the Orange Revolution. It contains the map shown above of the results of the 2004 presidential election. The indigenous Ukrainian candidate (Yushchenko) won in the western Ukrainian provinces, while Yanukovich won in the pro-Russian eastern and southern provinces.

Yanukovich had promised repeatedly that he would sign the association agreement with the EU, and Ukrainians were eagerly anticipating what they imagined (probably unrealistically) as a big economic boost from having new European markets from their products. But Putin threatened to close off Russia to many Ukrainian exports, which would have hurt Ukraine more than they would have gained from the EU asociation. Putin desperately wants Ukraine to remain within Russia's sphere of influence, and particularly wants Ukraine to join Russia's "Customs Union," whose other members so far are Belarus and Kazakhstan. BBC and Jamestown and VOA

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Dec-2013) Permanent Link
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What do Thailand's anti-government protesters want? The conundrum is solved

Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Dec-2013
3-Dec-13 World View -- Ukraine again in crisis as anti-government rioters demand president's resignation