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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Dec-2013
29-Dec-13 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic

Web Log - December, 2013

29-Dec-13 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic

What's interesting are the differences between the two.

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

25,000 man 'White Army' militia marches in South Sudan
Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic

25,000 man 'White Army' militia marches in South Sudan

These are Chadians fleeing the Central African Republic, heading back to Chad. In South Sudan, over 100,000 have fled to U.N. compounds. (BBC)

These are Chadians fleeing the Central African Republic, heading back to Chad. In South Sudan, over 100,000 have fled to U.N. compounds. (BBC)

There is a very dramatic scene taking place in South Sudan, as an army of 25,000 young men, with ghostly demeanors from being covered with white ash to fend off bug bites, is marching toward the provincial capital of Bor. They're from the Nuer tribe, hoping to repeat the accomplishment of their fathers, when a similar "White Army" marched into Bor in 1991 and massacred the people of the Dinka tribe. I'm sure their minds are filled with the stories that their fathers told of the glories of those days, having fun slaughtering the men, raping the women, and dismembering both.

I would hate to underestimate the power of 25,000 young men lusting for a fight, and it's quite possible that the worst will happen, but this has all the earmarks of an impending debacle for the White Army. These 25,000 young men are almost all untrained civilians in a generational Awakening era when there is little desire for another war. ( "19-Dec-13 World View -- U.S. and Britain evacuate citizens from South Sudan as unrest spreads") Another big difference with 1991 is that the city of Bor is ready for them, and will be prepared not only to defend but to inflict surprise counterattacks.

Whatever happens in Bor, there's still plenty of ongoing violence in South Sudan. Much of the international interest is in the oil fields, which are contested by the Nuer and Dinka tribes. If they're shut down, then the global price of oil would increase. There's also the possibility of outside involvement. Nuer leaders are claiming that jet fighters from Uganda are entering South Sudan and bombing Nuer positions.

Over 100,000 people have fled their homes and are hiding out in United Nations compounds. It is feared that the White Army will attack one of the compounds, which are not well defended. The U.N. is requesting $166 million in aid from other countries. Sudan Tribune and VOA and NPR

Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic

Violence between the Christians and the Muslims has been growing since March, when Muslim Seleka rebels ousted the Christian president Francois Bozize, and proceeded to attack the Christians. The Christians began revenge attacks, leading thousands of Muslim Chadians to flee the country and return to Chad. France has deployed 1,600 soldiers there as peacekeepers, to supplement 4,000 troops from the African Union.

The media often portray the situations in South Sudan and CAR as being parallel -- two countries facing sectarian/tribal conflicts, with peacekeepers sent in to help bring about a so-called "political solution." However, what's really interesting is to look at the differences between the two situations.

South Sudan has oil, and so the U.N. Security Council has passed a resolution authorizing almost 15,000 peacekeepers to enter the country. China and Russia approved this resolution, which is different behavior than they have with Syria, where their hero, the genocidal monster Bashar al-Assad, bombs neighborhoods where innocent people are living, launches missiles into children's dormitories and bedrooms, and authorizes rapes, tortures and mutilations of innocent women and children on a large scale. But South Sudan is different, especially for China, which has a major oil deal with South Sudan.

CAR has no oil, and so France is pretty much on its own, though with a little logistical help from the United States. France would love to have some help from another European country, but no one seems interested.

But the really important difference between the two countries is generational. South Sudan is in a generational Awakening era. This means that there'll be low-level violence and tribal conflict, but no major tribal or ethnic wars that slaughter huge masses of people.

But CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), targeting the French colonialists. So the people of CAR have no personal memories of the horrors of their last generational crisis war. CAR is in a generational Crisis era, and a full-scale bloody war like the 1994 war in Rwanda is quite possible and not unlikely, which is not the case for South Sudan. BBC and AFP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Dec-13 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Dec-2013) Permanent Link
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Thousands try to flee violence in Central African Republic

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Dec-2013
29-Dec-13 World View -- Conflicts grow in South Sudan and Central African Republic