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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-2014
17-Jan-14 World View -- Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid

Web Log - January, 2014

17-Jan-14 World View -- Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid

International concern over Russia's Sochi Olympics grows after Volgograd bombings

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid
International concern over Russia's Sochi Olympics grows after Volgograd bombings

Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid

Sochi by the beach, with snowy mountains in the distance

Sochi by the beach, with snowy mountains in the distance

As expected, Egypt's new constitution has received overwhelming approval in a two-day referendum. According to preliminary results, the boycott by Muslim Brotherhood members took its toll, as only 42.2% of registered voters turned out. However, among those who voted, 95.2% voted "yes." The new constitution is thought to be targeting the Muslim Brotherhood, as it forbids parties "formed on the basis of religion, gender, race or geography."

After the July 3 army coup that ousted President Mohamed Morsi and his governing coalition, a year after he was freely elected, Egypt was led by army chief Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi. However, after taking power, al-Sisi hand-picked Adly Mansour to be President of the Egypt. Since Mansour is a civilian, Egypt's Foreign Ministry is claiming that Egypt is not under military role, and that it won't be in the future.

However, al-Sisi some reports indicate that al-Sisi is a very charming 59 year old man, and extremely popular with women, despite having a wife and four children. It's believed that al-Sisi is considering becoming a civilian and running for president.

Before the coup, Egypt was receiving $1.5 billion in U.S. aid annually, $1.3 billion of which is designated for the military. The aid included military equipment, including F-16s. For months, the Obama administration carefully refrained from using the word "coup" to describe Morsi's ouster, since American law requires aid to be cut off to a country that overthrows a democratically elected leader in a coup. Finally, on October 9, the political pressure became too great, and the administration cut off military aid to Egypt.

Now that the referendum as passed and Egypt appears to be returning to democracy, Washington is discussing whether to unfreeze the aid to Egypt. According to a State Dept. spokesman, "It's also important for the interim government to foster a positive environment for civil society, to protect the rights of political activists and groups, to peacefully respect their views on the country's future." Daily News Egypt and AP and AFP

International concern over Russia's Sochi Olympics grows after Volgograd bombings

In late December, terrorist bombings on two consecutive days, blowing up a commuter bus and the inside of the railway station in Volgograd, Russia, triggered worldwide concern over security at the Winter Olympics to be held at the Sochi Black Sea resort on February 6-23. ( "31-Dec-13 World View -- Another Volgograd explosion throws Russia's Sochi Olympics into doubt")

Russia is promising that the Sochi Olympics will be the most secure ever, despite the threats by Chechnya Islamic warlord Doku Umarov, leader of the so-called Caucasus Emirate, to disrupt the "satanic" Olympics with terrorist attacks. Russia emphasizes the billions of dollars being spent to create a 1,500 mille ring of protection all around the Sochi area, and that it's imposing extraordinary restrictions on anyone hoping to attend the Olympics in person.

What the Volgograd bombings have done is show that Umarov can still strike major targets outside of Sochi, and that doing so raises almost as many international concerns as strikes within the Sochi region.

In fact, many security analysts say that the Olympics faces a high risk of a jihadist terrorism attacks. The problem is that the Sochi region is mostly wilderness, and can't be entirely protected. The athletes in the skiing competitions will be particularly vulnerable to terrorist attack, since the ski slopes can be miles long, and can't be completely protected.

A threat to the Olympics has come from another direction. Nationalism among ethnic Russians targeting Muslims from the North Caucasus, Russia's southern provinces, has been growing for years, resulting in an increasing level of xenophobia between the Orthodox Christian ethnic Russians and the Muslim North Caucasians. The Volgograd bombings have triggered nationalist protests in Volgograd, Moscow, and other cities. Opposition rallies coordinated via the social networking site VKontakte, attracted more than 50,000 signatories. Nationalist pogroms against people from the Caucasus, but sometimes taking in all dark-skinned foreigners as well, have become a frequent occurrence in Russia over the last eight years. Russian nationalists have already expressed displeasure about the Sochi Olympics because of the astronomical costs and the massive corruption. This nationalist opposition could become violent at any time, and represents yet one more danger to the peacefulness of the Sochi Olympics. Jamestown and Washington Times and CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jan-14 World View -- Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-Jan-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-2014 17-Jan-14 World View -- Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid

Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid

International concern over Russia's Sochi Olympics grows after Volgograd bombings

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Jan-2014
17-Jan-14 World View -- Aftermath of Egypt's referendum vote will affect U.S. aid