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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-2014
23-Jan-14 World View -- Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components

Web Log - January, 2014

23-Jan-14 World View -- Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components

China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed
Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components
China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed

Protester throws Molotov cocktail on Wednesday (CNN)

Protester throws Molotov cocktail on Wednesday (CNN)

Two months of anti-government protesters in Ukraine, mostly peaceful though strewn with some bursts of violence, are now close to becoming a war with the police, as protesters hurl stones and Molotov cocktails, and police respond with tear gas, stun grenades, and rubber bullets, killing five protesters in the first fatalities of the protests.

The protests were originally triggered when President Viktor Yanukovych did a 180 degree flip-flop in November and suddenly refused to sign a trade agreement with the European Union, as he had promised to do, choosing instead to accept a $15 billion bailout from Russia in return for closer ties. The protests became significantly more violent last week, after passage of new laws limiting the right to protests in Ukraine, according to opposition leader Vitali Klitschko, and a former world boxing champion.

There were several hours of negotiations on Wednesday, but according to Klitschko he ended them with an ultimatum:

"We did not receive any answers. When we talked about canceling the new laws that make each of us here a criminal, we heard that maybe this can be a point of negotiations. I will be with the people. If I have to fight, I will fight. If I have to go under bullets, I will. I will stand up for the people, because I want to live in a different country.
If Yanukovych does not make concessions, then tomorrow (Thursday) we will go on the attack." "

Yanukovych said the negotiations accomplished nothing, and the government gave security forces extra powers, including firing water cannon against the protesters despite the freezing temperatures.

January 22 is Ukraine's annual "day of national unity," celebrating the unification of western and eastern Ukraine in an attempt at independence in 1919 during the Bolshevik Revolution. However, Ukraine remains today two essentially different countries, with two distinctly different ethnic groups. The majority of the population are ethnic Ukrainians, occupying most of the country, in the western part of Ukraine. The minority group are ethnic Russians, occupying the east and south, descendants of ethnic Russians who were sent there by Stalin after World War II in order to "Russify" Ukraine. CNN and AFP

Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components

Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif directly contradicted the White House on the terms of the nuclear deal that was signed last November.

According to the White House "Fact Sheet: First Step Understandings Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Nuclear Program":

Iran has committed to halt enrichment above 5%:
Halt all enrichment above 5% and dismantle the technical connections required to enrich above 5%."

But according to Zarif:

"The White House version both underplays the concessions and overplays Iranian commitments.
The White House tries to portray it as basically a dismantling of Iran's nuclear program. That is the word they use time and again. If you find a single, a single word, that even closely resembles dismantling or could be defined as dismantling in the entire text, then I would take back my comment.
[W]e are not dismantling any centrifuges, we're not dismantling any equipment, we're simply not producing, not enriching over 5%."

White House and CNN

China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

The Davos conference in Switzerland is discussing more than just global finance. One Chinese professional attending the conference, who, according to conference rules, shall not be named, said that war between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands is inevitable because China and Japan increasingly hate each other.

He outlined China's plans for a "surgical invasion":

Make a limited strike on the island, essentially just send a naval force to plant a flag.

The strike would have great symbolic value, demonstrating to China, Japan, and the rest of the world who was boss.

But it would not be so egregious that it would force a military response by either Japan or America.

This outline is credible because it's very similar to the method used by China to seize the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in 2012, and it's similar to reports of plans for China's military to seize one island after another in the South China Sea. ( "16-Jan-14 World View -- China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines")

It's quite possible that the Chinese really believe that this idea will work, since they're as far into fantasy land as Washington is. This world is deep into a generational Crisis era, which is characterized by surging nationalism in all countries. China might get away with snatching one island this way, just as Hitler got away with snatching the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia in 1938, after promising "Peace in our time." But the next such attempt would trigger extremely high nationalism in both America and Japan, and would certainly lead to a military confrontation that could spiral out of control.

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is also at the Davos conference, and he says that the current tension between Japan and China is similar to the situation between Britain and Germany, prior to World War I. He said that Britain and Germany – like China and Japan – had a strong trading relationship. But in 1914, this had not prevented strategic tensions leading to the outbreak of conflict.

Abe said that China's rapidly growing military spending is a major source of instability in the region. Between 1908 and 1913, European powers increased military spending by 50% after Germany began building a navy to rival Britain's. Business Insider and Business Insider

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jan-14 World View -- Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Jan-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-2014 23-Jan-14 World View -- Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components

Ukraine anti-government protesters issue ultimatum after five are killed

Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components

China says that war with Japan is inevitable because they hate each other

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Jan-2014
23-Jan-14 World View -- Iran says it's not dismantling any nuclear components