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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-2014
3-Mar-14 World View -- Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Web Log - March, 2014

3-Mar-14 World View -- Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

North Korea fires short-range missiles into the sea

This morning's key headlines from

Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

An Orthodox priest holds a crucifix next to armed men in military fatigues blocking access to a Ukrainian border guards base in Crimea on Sunday (AFP)
An Orthodox priest holds a crucifix next to armed men in military fatigues blocking access to a Ukrainian border guards base in Crimea on Sunday (AFP)

It appears that Russia has taken control of Crimea without firing a shot, and is referring to it as the "Autonomous Republic of Crimea," presumably with the intention of making it a puppet state of Moscow.

Ukraine's government in Kiev is only a few days old, and seems to be in disarray. So far, they're avoiding any strong military overreaction that would provide Russia with an excuse for a further military invasion, perhaps into eastern Ukraine beyond Crimea. However, the government warned Sunday it was on the brink of disaster and called up military reservists to counter Russia's threat to Ukraine.

Russia has appointed Sergey Aksyonov to prime minister, and on Sunday he announced:

"I believe that this day will go down in history of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea as the day that all law enforcement agencies were established in the autonomy, We will prove that the Crimeans are capable of protecting themselves and ensure the safety and freedom of our citizens. ...

Today the Autonomous Republic of Crimea is formed as an independent, integral public authority. I am sure that all of us will prove that we did not just come into power and that we can give Crimeans what they expect from us.

We will never see 'Maidan' with their black smoke and burned tires here. I responsibly promise that Crimea by May will be calm, quiet, friendly. People of all nationalities will live here happily."

This last paragraph is actually pretty funny. Aksyonov has absolutely no clue whether Crimea will be "calm, quiet and friendly." No national leader at any time or place in history can be sure of avoiding widespread anti-government demonstrations that might result in "black smoke and burned tires." A government can use violence and torture to suppress demonstrations for a time, but even that doesn't always work (as we see every day in Syria). Sooner or later the pressure cooker explodes.

As I've written dozens of times, it's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history. So Aksyonov's claims are totally meaningless.

There have been many comparisons of today's situation in Ukraine to Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia, where Russia annexed two Georgian provinces in much the same way that Russia is now annexing Crimea.

But there was something noteworthy about the Georgian war that rarely gets mentioned. Here's what I wrote in "Moscow Times: 'Russia Adds 2 New Countries to Its Map'" in 2008:

"What's become clear in these three weeks is that there isn't much visceral hatred between Georgians and Russians. The Georgians are furious that the Russians are occupying Georgian territory, but there's no genocidal fury between these two ethnic groups.

What's also become clear, however, is that there is plenty of genocidal fury between Georgians and Ossetians. These two ethnic groups really hate each other, and either of them would gladly exterminate the other."

Those relationships turned out to be the deciding factors in what followed after the war ended. Russia and Georgia, both Orthodox Christian nations, have gotten along pretty well since then, while Muslim South Ossetia effective joined North Ossetia to become part of Russia's North Caucasus provinces. North and South Ossetia get along well with Chechnya and Dagestan and Russia's other North Caucasus provinces, even though the Muslim Caucasians as a whole and the ethnic Russians exhibit mutual vitriolic hatred, almost on a daily basis.

Likewise, the future of Ukraine is going to be determined by the relationships between the ethnic groups. There have been signs of hatred between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians at the government level: The new Kiev government voted to ban Russian as an official language in the country, while the government in Moscow has been referring to the Kiev government as "Nazis." But so far, I have not discerned a great deal of hatred at the level of ordinary Ukrainians and Russians (though it's early and it may simply not have shown itself yet).

If there were only ethnic Russians and a few ethnic Ukrainians in Crimea, then the hopes and dreams of Aksyonov for a "calm, quiet, friendly" future might actually have a chance. But that's not what you have.

You have 2 million ethnic Russians, and 300,000 Muslim ethnic Tatars living in Crimea. Russia's dictator Josef Stalin in 1944 deported 200,000 Tatars from Crimea, where they had lived for centuries, to central Asia, accusing them of collaborating with the Nazis. It was only in the 1980s and 1990s that the Tatars returned in large numbers to Crimea, particularly after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Ukraine's independence. The Tatars are scared to death of being under the control of the Russians again, and so they're aligning themselves with the government in Kiev. And the references in Moscow to "Nazis" in Ukraine strike a very deep chord in the Tatar psyche. There is no way that this relationship is going to be "calm, quiet and friendly." Russia Today and AFP

Strategic consequences of Russia's conquest of Crimea

One web site reader (BronxZionist) has kindly provided a list of some of the possible strategic consequences of the Russian conquest of Crimea:

North Korea fires short-range missiles into the sea

North Korea fired two short-range Scud missiles into the sea off its east coast Monday, with a range of 500 km. This was the second such launch recently. On Thursday, North Korea fired four Scud missiles from the same area. According to South Korea's Defense Ministry, the missile firing are a reaction to the annual South Korean/U.S. joint military exercises, and that they're a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban use of ballistic missile technology. According to a South Korean spokesman:

"North Korea is taking a two-faced approach, showing the reconciliatory peace gesture on the surface, while launching provocations on the other hand," the spokesman said in a briefing. "We sound a serious warning to North Korea, urging it to stop provocations. ...

In light of the border trespassing and short-range missile launches, South Korean and U.S. forces have stepped up their surveillance status to closely watch the North Korean military's latest moves. We are ready to strike back if provoked."

A North Korean statement blamed the U.S.:

"The United States is stepping up military provocations, going against the tide of peace and eased tension on the Korean Peninsula. The U.S. does not welcome improved inter-Korean ties and is conducting all forms of maneuvers to intensify confrontations between the two Koreas."

About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea. Yonhap (Seoul)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Mar-14 World View -- Russia declares the Autonomous Republic of Crimea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Mar-2014) Permanent Link
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