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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Mar-2014
14-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares to annex Ukraine's Crimea - and more

Web Log - March, 2014

14-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares to annex Ukraine's Crimea - and more

Slovakia becomes the fourth euro zone country in deflation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

At Far East end of Russia, Putin upgrades the Pacific Fleet
Russia prepares to annex Crimea and invade Ukraine
Panicked Crimeans line up to withdraw cash from banks
Slovakia becomes the fourth euro zone country in deflation

At Far East end of Russia, Putin upgrades the Pacific Fleet

Armored personnel carries of Marine Corps of Russian Pacific Fleet are heading to shore after landing from an amphibious assault ship. (RT)

Armored personnel carries of Marine Corps of Russian Pacific Fleet are heading to shore after landing from an amphibious assault ship. (RT)

After years of neglect, Russia is upgrading and building up its Pacific fleet, president Vladimir Putin focuses on building up its eastern Siberian and Far East regions. During his December 12 Presidential Address, Putin said:

"This is our national priority for the entire 21st century. ... I am confident that Russia’s reorientation toward the Pacific Ocean and the dynamic development in all our eastern territories will not only open up new economic opportunities and new horizons, but also provide additional instruments for an active foreign policy"

Moscow is becoming increasingly concerned about Russia's Far East, where population has fallen 50% since the 1990s, allowing migrants from China to repopulate the region.

In addition to building new logistics vessels, oilers and transport ships to provide logistical support for extended operations of the Pacific Fleet in distant seas, Russia is also seeking other facilities, pursuing negotiations with Vietnam to lease the naval base in Cam Ranh Bay.

Starting on March 28, Russia will participate in the Komodo 2014 multilateral joint exercise, focusing on naval cooperation capabilities in disaster relief. It will involve 28 warships and 4,000 personnel from all ten ASEAN members as well as Russia, Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and the United States. (The ASEAN members are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam.)

What's notable about this joint exercise is that it will involve countries with overlapping maritime disputes, including the following:

India and Pakistan dispute the boundary in Sir Creek estuary at the mouth of the Rann of Kutch in the Arabian Sea.

India has maritime boundary claims against Bangladesh.

Indonesia has maritime frontier issues with Timor-Leste, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, Palau and Vietnam.

ASEAN member states Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei contest Chinese claims over the Spratly Islands.

The Philippines dispute China's assertion of sovereignty over Scarborough Reef.

China also occupies some of the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by Vietnam.

Russia and Japan contest the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories.

China has territorial disputes with India and Japan.

This is occurring as the United States' military begins to pivot 60% of its forces into the Pacific. Jamestown

Russia prepares to annex Crimea and invade Ukraine

The outcome of Sunday's Crimea referendum on seceding from Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation as an independent republic seems now to be a foregone conclusion. Russia's parliament is rushing a special constitutional amendment to legalize the annexation of Crimea, and it's expected to be enacted within a day or two. There are Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea, but their bases have all been blocked by Russian forces. Anyone who advocates voting against the referendum risks arrest or being beaten up. Independent media in Moscow have been shut down or restricted.

On March 4, Russia's president Vladimir Putin stated that "Russia does not contemplate the possibility of annexing Crimea," but today it appears that Putin is contemplating more than Crimea, as all signs indicate that Russia is going beyond Crimea. Russia is increasingly on a war footing, with a big military buildup along Russia's border with Ukraine. According to a Ukrainian official in Kiev,

"[Russian forces include] over 80,000 personnel, up to 270 tanks, 180 armored vehicles, 380 artillery systems, 18 multiple-launch missile systems, 140 combat aircraft, 90 combat helicopters and 19 warships and cutters. ...
Critical is the situation not only in Crimea, but along the entire north-eastern frontier. In fact, Russian troop units are two or three hours of travel from Kiev."

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says that the only way out of the crisis is through diplomacy. Jamestown and Daily Mail (London)

Panicked Crimeans line up to withdraw cash from banks

Crimean banks have imposed a withdrawal limit of about $150 per day. Customers are forming long lines to withdraw cash while they can, before Sunday's referendum. CNBC/AP

Slovakia becomes the fourth euro zone country in deflation

Slovakia, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus are now in deflation.

Consumer prices in Slovakia fell 0.1% in February, on a monthly and yearly basis. According to a central bank official, the fall in prices is caused by low food prices and low demand.

In Portugal, prices fell by a monthly 0.3% after a 1.4% drop in January. In Greece and Cyprus price declines are above 1%.

Other Eurozone peripheral countries remain on the cusp of falling prices, with annual consumer inflation running at just 0.1% in Spain, 0.2% in Ireland and 0.5% in Italy. Cihan (Turkey) and EuroIntelligence

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares to annex Ukraine's Crimea - and more thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Mar-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Mar-2014 14-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares to annex Ukraine's Crimea - and more

At Far East end of Russia, Putin upgrades the Pacific Fleet

Russia prepares to annex Crimea and invade Ukraine

Panicked Crimeans line up to withdraw cash from banks

Slovakia becomes the fourth euro zone country in deflation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Mar-2014
14-Mar-14 World View -- Russia prepares to annex Ukraine's Crimea - and more