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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Mar-2014
24-Mar-14 World View -- Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

Web Log - March, 2014

24-Mar-14 World View -- Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

Europeans alarmed as Russian troops mass on Ukraine border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey shoots down Syrian warplane violating Turkish airspace
Europeans alarmed as Russian troops mass on Ukraine border
Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

Turkey shoots down Syrian warplane violating Turkish airspace

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Turkey's F-16 fighter jets shot down a Syrian aircraft which crossed Turkey's border. Tensions have been high between Syria and Turkey since the Syrian civil war began three years ago, sending millions of refugees to neighboring countries, including half a million into Turkey. But concerns have been rising even further in recent weeks because of threats to the tomb, in Syria, of Süleyman Sah, the grandfather of the founder of the Ottoman Empire.

Prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan explained the incident at an election rally on Sunday:

"A Syrian plane violated our airspace. Our F-16s took off and hit this plane. Why? Because if you violate my airspace, our slap will be hard. Now in your presence, I congratulate the General Staff, the Turkish military and our air forces."

Opposition politicians in Turkey are claiming that the incident was an attempt for Erdogan to gain popularity seven days before national elections, and to divert attention from the growing corruption scandal swamping him and his family and administration. Cihan (Turkey) and Zaman (Turkey)

Europeans alarmed as Russian troops mass on Ukraine border

Two days after annexing Ukraine's Crimean peninsula to Russia, some 20,000 Russian troops are performing military exercises on the border of east Ukraine. At the same time, pro-Russian activists in eastern Ukraine are planning rallies to encourage a Russian invasion.

Nato's Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove emphasized the large size of the Russia force -- large enough to push all the way across eastern Ukraine to Moldova on the other end:

"The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizable and very, very ready.
There is absolutely sufficient force postured on the eastern border of Ukraine to run to Trans-Dniester if the decision was made to do that, and that is very worrisome."

Trans-Dniester is a small province of Moldova with a large ethnic Russian population that wants to separate from Moldova and become part of Russia. They have been given hope by Russia's actions in Crimea.

The Russians say that they have no intention of invading eastern Ukraine, but it was only a few days ago that they said they had no intention of annexing Crimea.

Europeans are becoming increasingly alarmed that Russia's actions are destabilizing the European Union itself. "We must not allow a new division of Europe," according to Germany's foreign minister.

In America, politicians are becoming increasingly critical of inaction by President Obama, even in the Tea Party, which has been isolationist in the past. According to political analyst Ron Senor on ABC News on Sunday, "Rand Paul was initially quite critical of Republicans who were 'going back to cold war rhetoric,' and then you watch where the party went, where Ted Cruz went - he's a good bellwether for where the base is - he was extremely critical of the president on Russia and Ukraine, and suddenly Rand Paul has moved to a more muscular position."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is all as expected, as I've been saying for years. In this generational Crisis era, Russia, Europe, America and most other countries are becoming increasingly nationalistic, as they're forced to abandon their pie-eyed dreams left over from the 1960s. CNN

Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

Pakistan's prime minister Nawaz Sharif on Thursday categorically said that Pakistan was not sending its troops to Saudi Arabia or Bahrain. The denial came because of persistent and increasingly numerous rumors that Pakistan is sending 30,000 troops to Saudi Arabia for the defense shield force of the Gulf Cooperation Council. During the Arab Spring revolts in Bahrain, it's believed that Pakistanis quelled the revolt. It's estimated that almost 10,000 Pakistanis are still serving in security services in Bahrain.

What triggered the new reports were visits from Saudi and Bahraini officials to Pakistan to discuss common security concerns. And most significant, there was a sudden, unexpected payment of $1.5 billion from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan, with no coherent explanation, with some officials calling an aid, then a grant, then aid, then a gift. The mystery deepened when it emerged that Saudi Arabia had purchased weapons systems from Pakistan.

Those in Pakistan who oppose sending either weapons or troops to Saudi Arabia express concern that the Saudis will use them to fight Bashar al-Assad's forces in Syria, as part of the growing Sunni-Shia sectarian conflict in the Mideast. Pakistan has its own problems with sectarian battles, as Taliban-linked jihadists in Pakistan have vowed to exterminate all Shias in Pakistan, and have been carrying out that threat with frequent bombings of Shia mosques and markets. The fear is that if Pakistan becomes embroiled in Syria or in the Mideast sectarian fight in any way, then the sectarian conflict in Pakistan will only become worse.

As I've said many times over the last ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni countries will be allied against the West, India, Russia and Iran. The increasing military relationship between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia appears to support that prediction. The Nation (Pakistan) and Memri and The News (Pakistan)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Mar-14 World View -- Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Mar-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Mar-2014 24-Mar-14 World View -- Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

Turkey shoots down Syrian warplane violating Turkish airspace

Europeans alarmed as Russian troops mass on Ukraine border

Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia

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24-Mar-14 World View -- Pakistan debates sending troops to Saudi Arabia