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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Mar-2014
27-Mar-14 World View -- Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'

Web Log - March, 2014

27-Mar-14 World View -- Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'

Iran's Supreme Leader fears Great Islamic Revolution will be forgotten

This morning's key headlines from

Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants'

Soldiers from Misca, the African Union peacekeeping mission
Soldiers from Misca, the African Union peacekeeping mission

The 6,000 man African Union peacekeeping force, known by its acronym Misca, has designated the Christian "anti-balaka" militias in Central African Republic as "terrorists" and "enemy combatants," following a wave of anti-balaka attacks on Misca soldiers, and the killing on Monday of a Misca peacekeeping soldier from the Republic of Congo. According to a Misca statement:

"Henceforth, MISCA considers anti-balakas as terrorists and enemy combatants, and they shall be treated accordingly."

Although 2,000 French soldiers and 6,000 Misca soldiers have been deployed as peacekeepers, the violence in Central African Republic (CAR) has not been quelled. In fact, as I've been saying for months, this is spiraling into a full-scale generational crisis war that will be enveloped by tribal massacres on a massive scale.

Muslim Seleka militias began killing Christians last year, after a coup by Muslim leader Michel Djotodia. There were predictions last year of revenge by Christians. The international community forced Djotodia to step down in January, in the hope that his doing so would quiesce the Christians, but that hope was in vain.

As I've explained, CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational Crisis era, where a new crisis war is increasingly likely.

The Kongo-Wara rebellion was nominally an uprising against the French colonialists, but it also had it share of the same kind of tribal violence that we are seeing today. After a crisis war like that ends, the survivors on both sides look back in horror at the acts that were perpetrated on both sides, and vow to devote the rest of their lives to making sure that nothing like that happens to their children or grandchildren. They succeed at that, but once the survivors have passed away, so that there's no one left with a personal memory of the last crisis war, then there's nothing to stop a new crisis war from starting, and that's what's happening now. French and African Union peacekeepers will try desperately to put a lid on it, but nothing will stop it now.

In fact, young people in CAR today certainly have heard of the Kongo-Wara war, just as Americans have heard of WW II. But what do they know? Nobody's told them about the its horrors. What the Muslims know is that their great-grandfathers were war heroes because they killed thousands of French and Christians, while the Christians have heard that their great-grandfathers were even bigger heroes, because they slaughtered even more Muslims. Now all of them want to be new generations of heroes.

If the Misca peacekeepers are now going to treat the Christians as enemy combatants, then this crisis war will be moving to the next stage. It will no longer be just CAR residents versus CAR residents. It will also be a war between CAR residents and soldiers from other nations.

I have not seen any reports about the role of the French peacekeepers in this declaration of enemy combatants, but as the situation deteriorates it would not be surprising to see the French embroiled in the war as well. AFP and BBC and Reuters

Iran's Supreme Leader fears Great Islamic Revolution will be forgotten

Iran's last generational crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war, that climaxed in 1987 with Saddam Hussein's use of chemical weapons. These crisis wars are at the heart of generational theory, because the traumatized generations of survivors of these wars create austere rules and institutions to keep the same thing from happening to their children and grandchildren. As the younger generations come of age, they rebel against this austerity, creating a "generation gap" and a generational Awakening era, as happened in America in the 1960s.

Iran is going through an Awakening era today, and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei is becoming panicked because younger generations don't appreciate the sacrifices that his generation had to make. In a speech to young people earlier this week, Khamenei said that "The memory of the Sacred Defense era must be kept alive" and warned against the efforts of 'some' who seek to erase the war’s values and historical memory:

"The front of the enemies of the Islamic system, meaning these European governments and the American government, encouraged Saddam’s Ba’athist regime to continue the war by providing him advanced capabilities and equipment. This matter caused the Imposed War to last for eight years.

But God almighty showed his hand of power and crushed the mouths of the enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the iron fist of divine tradition and rubbed their noses to the dirt.

The greatest lesson of the Islamic Revolution to the Iranian nation was that the path of achieving high ideals is fighting, sacrificing and persevering for these ideals.

Those who wish ill for the Iranian nation and also some [others] are seeking to erase from memory the sacrifices of the Sacred Defense era and its prominent figures. On this basis, they are making efforts to prescript the sacrifices of the Sacred Defense and the path that the great Imam [Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Khamenei's predecessor] the wise and sage servant of God, had determined."

Khamenei is expressing the same frustrations and the same kinds of warnings that Presidents Johnson and Nixon expressed during America's Awakening era, and were the victims of violent protests by young people. These Awakening era political battles are almost always (though not always) won by young people because the older generations die off. AEI Iran Tracker

John Kerry embraces Iran's Supreme Leader fatwa scam

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he has high regard for the fatwa issued by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei a decade ago. According to Kerry:

"I show a lot of respect for this fatwa as it is a religious message and is highly respected by people."

The problem, as I wrote last week, is that even Iranian scholars do not believe that this fatwa exists. Khamenei doesn't list it on the fatwa page of his web site, and no one has ever seen the actual text of the fatwa.

Apparently the tales of this fatwa began with a statement published in 2005 by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) announcing the fatwa:

"The Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued the Fatwa that the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons."

As far as I can tell, that press report was the original mention of the fatwa, and that sentence has been repeated over and over since then.

Of course, Ayatollah Khamenei could clear up this confusion at any time. Did he issue this fatwa or not? He never says.

In my opinion, this is a scam and a fraud being perpetrated by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. What looks to be the case is as follows: Khamenei never issued the fatwa, but got IRNA to publish a report saying that he HAD issued the fatwa. So he has the best of both worlds. He's got Kerry and everyone else quoting his non-existent fatwa, but when crunch time comes, he'll say, "Oh no, there was no fatwa. IRNA got it wrong." He could clarify things today if he wanted to, but he doesn't want to because he's scamming President Obama, Kerry, the West, and everyone else, and getting away with it.

If anyone out there disagrees, it's easy enough to prove me wrong. Find a published copy of the text of the entire fatwa, and then show an official affirmation that Khamenei issued it. Radio Zamaneh and IRNA (2005)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Mar-14 World View -- Central African Republic peacekeepers call Christians 'enemy combatants' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Mar-2014) Permanent Link
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