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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Apr-2014
1-Apr-14 World View -- Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

Web Log - April, 2014

1-Apr-14 World View -- Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

U.S. desperately tries to salvage Mideast 'peace process'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

U.S. desperately tries to salvage Mideast 'peace process'
Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

U.S. desperately tries to salvage Mideast 'peace process'

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry departed Sunday's failed peace talks with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, and flew to Jerusalem, where he has a "secret plan" to keep the Mideast "peace process" from collapsing on its scheduled end day, April 29. According to some reports, Kerry's plan is to go ahead with a previously rumored offer to the Israelis to release spy Jonathan Pollard, who has been in jail since 1987 for selling secrets to the Israelis. ( "25-Mar-14 World View -- U.S. may release Jonathan Pollard to keep Mideast peace talks going") This would presumably incentivize the Israelis to keep them from walking out of the hallucinatory "peace process," but it's not known what incentive Kerry plans to offer to the Palestinians to keep them from walking about. Arab News and Bloomberg

Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was willing to agree to almost anything on Sunday, during his failed four hour conversation with Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, to convince the Russians to remove the tens of thousands of Russian troops from the Ukrainian border. Lavrov not only refused to agree to pull back the troops, he also demanded that Ukraine's government in Kiev rewrite the constitution to adopt a "federal" system. The federal system will essentially make each region of Ukraine a kind of independent republic, similar to what Crimea was before it was annexed by Russia. Kerry is so desperate that he would probably agree to this if it were up to him, but it isn't -- it's up to the government in Kiev, and they're not going to agree to this "federal" system.

With tens of thousands of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, being supplied with plenty of food, clothing and spare parts, there is a great deal of concern that Russia's president Vladimir Putin will soon give the order to invade Ukraine.

However, some analysts are insisting that Russia won't invade, because they can't afford it. As weak as the Western sanctions on Russia have been, not much more stringent than preventing senior Russian politicians from visiting Disneyland, they actually are more effective than anyone really expected. The sanctions have already caused many investors to voluntarily move $60-70 billion of their money out of Russia, and it could be several hundred billion dollars by year's end. Russia's has been depending on oil sales, but those have been weak since the financial crisis, and the economy is already tanking. $100 billion in capital flight would be a disaster.

However, there are other forces at work here, and Putin may actually have no choice but to order an invasion. Putin's approval ratings have shot up to 75.7% among the Russian population, since the Crimean annexation. ( "21-Mar-14 World View -- Putin's approval ratings soar in Russia over Crimea annexation".) The Russian people are experiencing passions of ferocious intensity to achieve victories that prove Russia's "greatness." If Putin is forced to back down in any way in Ukraine, it could be politically disastrous for him. Instead, he may have to find a way to maximize the "shock and awe" from his next strike. Moscow Times and AFP and Jamestown

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Apr-14 World View -- Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Apr-2014) Permanent Link
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U.S. desperately tries to salvage Mideast 'peace process'

Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Apr-2014
1-Apr-14 World View -- Russia demands a 'federal model' for Ukraine