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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-2014
18-Apr-14 World View -- Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine

Web Log - April, 2014

18-Apr-14 World View -- Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine

Nigeria in shock from double attack by Boko Haram

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine
Ukraine agreement leaves many questions unanswered
Nigeria in shock from double attack by Boko Haram

Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine

Pro-Russian activists block Ukrainian soldiers in armored personnel carriers in east Ukraine on Wednesday (AFP)

Pro-Russian activists block Ukrainian soldiers in armored personnel carriers in east Ukraine on Wednesday (AFP)

In a nationally televised program on Thursday, Russia's president Vladimir Putin described southern and eastern Ukraine as Novorossiya, or New Russia, that had been part of the Russian Empire since the 18th century, until the 1920s when the European leadership decided "For God knows why," to give it to Ukraine. Putin said that he "hopes he won't have to send troops into Ukraine," but pointed out that the Duma (parliament) had given him the power to order an invasion of Crimea, if he chooses to do so. These statements were similar to the prelude to the Russian annexation of Crimean, which was justified by a historical narrative, and a statement by Putin that "we have no intention of annexing Crimea."

So it was a surprise a few hours later when Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov announced that an agreement had been reached between Russia, Ukraine and the West to deescalate the situation. In particular, the agreement called for protesters to leave illegally seized buildings. As we reported yesterday, Russia's ambassador to the European Union said that any such call would be "betraying" the people of eastern Ukraine.

Russia also backed down on the demand for "federalization," replacing it simply with a "constitutional process." There was no mention of being unaligned, which has been code word for the Russian demand that Ukraine not join Nato.

There are several possible reasons for Putin's flip-flop:

It's possible that Putin is lying (again), and this may simply be a ploy to gain time before a planned invasion. This is what happened with Crimea.

Polls have shown that most east Ukrainians want to remain part of Ukraine, so a Russian invasion would be far more difficult than annexing Crimea.

The West has been a lot more unified than anyone expected in imposing sanctions. The sanctions seemed little more than symbolic, but they did result in a big outflow of foreign currency reserves, thanks to nervous investors fearing future sanctions. Furthermore, Nato has been moving some of its troops and assets closer to eastern Europe.

ABC News and Russia Today

Ukraine agreement leaves many questions unanswered

Here's the full published text of the Ukraine agreement:

"The Geneva meeting on the situation in Ukraine agreed on initial concrete steps to de-escalate tensions and restore security for all citizens.
All sides must refrain from any violence, intimidation or provocative actions. The participants strongly condemned and rejected all expressions of extremism, racism and religious intolerance, including anti-semitism.
All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated.
Amnesty will be granted to protestors and to those who have left buildings and other public places and surrendered weapons, with the exception of those found guilty of capital crimes.
It was agreed that the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission should play a leading role in assisting Ukrainian authorities and local communities in the immediate implementation of these de-escalation measures wherever they are needed most, beginning in the coming days. The U.S., E.U. and Russia commit to support this mission, including by providing monitors.
The announced constitutional process will be inclusive, transparent and accountable. It will include the immediate establishment of a broad national dialogue, with outreach to all of Ukraine’s regions and political constituencies, and allow for the consideration of public comments and proposed amendments.
The participants underlined the importance of economic and financial stability in Ukraine and would be ready to discuss additional support as the above steps are implemented."

The first steps that would have to be: "All illegal armed groups must be disarmed; all illegally seized buildings must be returned to legitimate owners; all illegally occupied streets, squares and other public places in Ukrainian cities and towns must be vacated." This would apply to eastern Ukraine cities, but it would also apply to anti-Russian "Maidan" protesters in Kiev, who are still blockading streets and occupying some buildings in the capital city. There could be some disagreements as to who has to go first.

The issue that originally triggered the months of protests and counter-protests was a desire by many in Ukraine to sign a trade agreement with the European Union, something that was bitterly opposed by Putin and Russia. The new agreement removes the demand that Ukraine be "unaligned," but it's not clear what would happen if Ukraine decided to sign the agreement after all, or to apply for membership in Nato.

As I always like to point out, major events are brought about not by politicians but by masses of people, generations of people, and politicians are irrelevant except insofar as they implement the policies demanded by the people. It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that this is always true, even in a dictatorship. Whether the Ukraine agreement succeeds depends on how the pro-Russian protesters in eastern Ukraine and the anti-Russian protesters in Kiev deal with it. Indeed, the pro-Russian protesters may feel betrayed, as the Russian ambassador suggested. If they stand their ground, then Thursday's agreement will be totally meaningless.

By a coincidence of timing, we may know the answer within a few days. Sunday is Easter, and this is one of those rare years when the Western Easter coincides with the Eastern Orthodox Easter. If anything can motivate protesters in Kiev and eastern Ukraine to end their protests, it would be Easter Sunday, the holiest day in the Christian calendar. So we may know by Monday whether the terms of the agreement will be met by the pro-Russian protesters in east Ukraine and the anti-Russian protesters in Kiev. Guardian

Nigeria in shock from double attack by Boko Haram

First there was Monday's massive attack on a bus station in Abuja, the capital city of Nigeria. ( "15-Apr-14 World View -- Major terrorist explosion in Nigeria's capital kills over 70")

Then on Tuesday, Boko Haram abducted over 100 schoolgirls from a school in northeast Nigeria. This act is supposed to be consistent with the meaning in the Hausa language of Boko Haram: "Western education is forbidden." But stories are spreading that there's a much more carnal motive, and that Boko Haram are using the girls as sex slaves. There have been other terrorist attacks this week as well.

The girls have not yet been found, and excuses and statements by the government, the military and police are only infuriating the parents. Parents are beginning to ignore the police and form vigilante militias to find them.

In recent months, Boko Haram has changed, in that the terror has become indiscriminate. It used to be that Boko Haram bombed government installations and Christian churches, but now anyone and anything can be a target, with motives that are unclear. The country is roughly half Muslim and half Christian. For Muslims, it's clear that the violence is all due to Islamist extremists, but Christians do not believe that Islamists would kill fellow Muslims. The result is that the country's population is becoming more polarized along Christian/Muslim lines. Deutsche-Welle and CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Apr-14 World View -- Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Apr-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Apr-2014 18-Apr-14 World View -- Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine

Russia flip-flops on eastern Ukraine

Ukraine agreement leaves many questions unanswered

Nigeria in shock from double attack by Boko Haram

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