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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2014
26-Apr-14 World View -- Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

Web Log - April, 2014

26-Apr-14 World View -- Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

Nigeria's government under fire over schoolgirl abduction

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Suicide bombers strike hardline Shia campaign rally in Baghdad Iraq
Nigeria's government under fire over schoolgirl abduction
Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

Suicide bombers strike hardline Shia campaign rally in Baghdad Iraq

Image grab from video showing one of Friday's three car bombs at moment of explosion (AP)

Image grab from video showing one of Friday's three car bombs at moment of explosion (AP)

Suicide bombers killed 31 people Friday at a campaign rally in Baghdad, Iraq, attended by thousands of supporters of Asaib Ahl al-Haq group, a hardline militant Shia group backed by Iran, and modeled after Lebanon's Hezbollah. The al-Qaeda linked Sunni Muslim terrorist group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Sham/theLevant (ISIS or ISIL). ISIS is the group that has been fighting both the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, and also his moderate opposition. ISIS is becoming well-established in both eastern Syria and western Iraq, as secular Shia/Sunni tensions grow throughout the Mideast. Next Wednesday's election will be the first since the US pulled out combat troops in 2011. AP and BBC

Nigeria's government under fire over schoolgirl abduction

The Nigerian people are frustrated and outraged about the fact that the government appears to be doing absolutely nothing to find the location of the schoolgirls, aged 16-18, who were kidnapped by Boko Haram under cover of darkness on April 16. Attempts were made to abduct 230 girls, but 43 escaped.

The girls were abducted and carried away in trucks for many miles, and the security forces did nothing to stop them. Since then, the army appears to be doing nothing. They're not searching through forests or following up on other leads, as far as anyone can tell. The government has done nothing but produce a couple of reports, but even those have not been released to the public. Many people believe that some people in the government and some people in the army are complicit with Boko Haram. Nigeria's president Goodluck Jonathan at a recent church service claimed that Boko Haram members had infiltrated the government, and now police officials are demanding that Jonathan provide the names of the suspects.

Nigeria is half Christian and half Muslim, and this case has divided the public along religious lines. The Christians believe that Muslims in general are complicit with Boko Haram, while the Muslims believed that they're all being unfairly blamed for the horrific actions of a terrorist gang. The kidnappings took place in the far north, which is mostly Muslim, and military operations there in the past have been extremely violent, so much of the public is resisting intrusion by the army, despite the kidnappings.

Defenders of the government and the army point out that the area where the girls are being held is remote and heavily forested. It's also close to Cameroon, which means that they could slip though porous borders into nearby countries, including Chad or Niger.

Although this incident is unique in Nigeria's history, and has shocked the entire nation, Boko Haram has abducted girls before, and when they flee to escape the police, they leave the girls behind and abduct new girls. Christian girls in the past who have been rescued were sometimes found to be pregnant or have children, and others had been forcibly converted to Islam and married off to their kidnappers. Daily Post (Nigeria) All Africa and CNN

Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

Russian military aircraft entered Ukrainian airspace several times on Thursday and Friday, raising tensions in eastern Ukraine.

Earlier, pro-Russian separatists seized a bus carrying international military observers near the eastern Ukraine town of Sloviansk, which is under control of the activists. Talks are under way to free them.

The have been a few horrific abductions and casualties and deaths in the eastern Ukraine saga, but apart from those, the situation looks more and more like a circus. I personally just can't wrap my mind around the concept that this region is on the verge of a major war.

There's plenty of rhetoric to go around. You have the government in Kiev saying, "The world has not yet forgotten World War II, but Russia is already keen on starting World War III." You have Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov responding with, "The West wants - and this is how it all began - to seize control of Ukraine because of their own political ambitions, not in the interests of the Ukrainian people." And the middle ring of the three-ring circus is Russia's armed forces on Ukraine's eastern border, with soldiers running around, tanks rolling around, and warplanes flying around to thrill people.

In the meantime, there's no upsurge of violence from the people. The pro-Russian and pro-Kiev activists aren't rising up and killing each other. The pro-Russian activists have taken over government buildings in Sloviansk and other villages, but that's more a 1960s-style Alinsky-style protest tactic, rather than a war. And if Russia's president Vladimir Putin really wanted to invade, and risk getting bogged down in a lengthy war, then he would have done so already.

It's worth noting that Russia already has its hands full dealing with the Tatars in Crimea, and that Standard & Poors ratings agency on Friday reduced the investment value of Russian bonds to near "junk" status. Russia's economy is a wreck.

I could be wrong (this is not a Generational Dynamics prediction), but my personal opinion is that eastern Ukraine is nowhere near war, and Russia is nowhere near an invasion. In other words, Putin is bluffing, in order to keep the pro-Russian activists happy, and to gain maximum leverage with the Kiev government and with the West. There may be isolated incidents of violence, and it's possible that things will get worse as the May 25 elections approach, but for the time being, I expect the circus to continue as it is. BBC and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Apr-14 World View -- Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Apr-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2014 26-Apr-14 World View -- Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

Suicide bombers strike hardline Shia campaign rally in Baghdad Iraq

Nigeria's government under fire over schoolgirl abduction

Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Apr-2014
26-Apr-14 World View -- Russian jets fly over Ukraine's air space