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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-May-2014
13-May-14 World View -- Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

Web Log - May, 2014

13-May-14 World View -- Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

Will Ukraine's 'People's Republic of Donetsk' be absorbed into Russia?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Will Ukraine's 'People's Republic of Donetsk' be absorbed into Russia?
Kerry to meet with Palestinians to discuss ending aid
Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

Will Ukraine's 'People's Republic of Donetsk' be absorbed into Russia?

Armed Pro-Russian activists stand guard near clear plastic ballot boxes (AFP)

Armed Pro-Russian activists stand guard near clear plastic ballot boxes (AFP)

The events of this weekend in Ukraine were truly amazing.

The ballot question that people in the province of Donetsk were asked to vote on was: "Do you support the Act of State Self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?" It was similar in the province of Luhansk.

Both the BBC and Al-Jazeera covered the elections live from various polling stations. A lot of people came out to vote, and there were long lines at the polling stations, but that was mainly because there were something like six polling stations for half a million people in some cities.

Both BBC and al-Jazeera were able to predict right in the polling station that the "Yes" votes were winning almost unanimously. How did they know that? Well, when someone came to vote, he was handed a sheet of paper that came out of a printer that anyone could have easily printed. He would go to a table where he would mark his ballot in plain sight of everyone, then he would drop the sheet of paper into the ballot box -- a tall rectangular container made of CLEAR PLASTIC. So when the camera was pointed at the ballot box, you could see how the person voted, and you could see that everyone was voting "Yes." Then there were interviews with people, typically afraid of being identified by name, who would have liked to vote "No," but were afraid to do so for fear of having the crap beaten out of them.

As we reported last week, Russia's president Vladimir Putin was caught in a lie, in the claims that 97% of the voters in the Crimean secession voted for secession. It turns out that these figures are fraudulent, and the actual figure is 50% of a 30% turnout, or 15% of voters. Putin may already be perpetrating a similar fraud in the east Ukraine referendum.

Back in the 80s, the Soviets would always brag about their election results, where the chosen candidate was always elected by 99-100%. These results would always be greeted with a great deal hilarity, because we all assumed that the elections were dishonest. Well, what was interesting this weekend was to see a real "Soviet-style election" in action. Of course Soviet-style elections are still the norm in Russia, which is how Putin got elected. I wonder if they use clear plastic ballot boxes in Moscow?

So anyway, pre-referendum opinion polls in eastern Ukraine showed that most people were really pissed off at the government in Kiev, but that they also didn't want to be absorbed into Russia. So when they voted "Yes" on "Do you support the Act of State Self-rule of the Donetsk People's Republic?", they thought that they were voting to become a self-ruling republic. But that didn't stop the referendum leaders from immediately declaring that the people had spoken, and the people wanted Donetsk to be absorbed into the Russia Federation, just like Crimea.

Putin was quoted on Monday saying that Russia had no intention of annexing Donetsk, but of course he said exactly the same thing about Crimea just before Russia annexed it. BBC and RFERL

Kerry to meet with Palestinians to discuss ending aid

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry will meet with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in London on Thursday, to discuss whether or no the U.S. will continue to provide up to $500 million in aid to Palestinians.

This meeting will come several weeks after the total collapse of the Mideast "peace talks" that Kerry set up last year. The "peace talks" were considered to be a joke around the Mideast, as the Israelis and the Palestinians rarely even spoke to each other. By the end of March, the whole thing was reduced to angry finger-pointing. It's believed that the Kerry and the Obama administration blame Israel for the collapse of the "peace talks," because Israel's president Benjamin Netanyahu refused to agree to a plan where Israel would return to its post 1948 borders.

The Palestinians have been making it clear that they're going to go their own way now. They're applying to hundreds of United Nations organizations as the State of Palestine, and they've indicated their intention to go to the International Criminal Court and charge Israel with war crimes.

But from the point of view of the United States, the most significant change is that Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) announced it will form a unity government with Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, and identified as a terrorist organization by the United States, with a charter that includes the total destruction of Israel.

Unfortunately for Abbas, U.S. law prohibits aid to the Palestinians to benefit Hamas, "or any entity effectively controlled by Hamas, any power-sharing government of which Hamas is a member, or that results from an agreement with Hamas and over which Hamas exercises undue influence." Fatah and Hamas were at war several years ago, and several subsequent attempts at unity have collapsed because of hostility between the two. Presumably Kerry is going to tell Abbas on Thursday that if he wants U.S. aid to continue to flow to the Palestinians, then it would be a good idea for this attempt at unity to collapse as well. But according to some news reports, there's a chance that Abbas will tell Kerry to take his money and go home. Reuters

Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

Official results won't be published until Friday, but exit polls indicate that that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Hindu nationalist Narendra Modi, has won a historic victory in India's parliamentary elections. It now looks likely that the BJP will be the first party in 30 years to win an absolute majority in parliament. The government Congress Party has suffered a devastating defeat, in an election with an extremely high turnout.

Much of Modi's popularity comes from his "hope and change" promises to improve the economy and eliminate corruption in New Delhi. But concerns have been raised because of his avowed (Hindutva) Hindu nationalism, he will worsen the relationship between Hindus and Muslims and India. His rhetoric has particularly targeted Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh, and he recently threatened that as soon as he took office he would deport Bangladeshi immigrants, saying, "I will send these Bangladeshis beyond the border with their bags and baggages." Times of India and CS Monitor

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-May-14 World View -- Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-May-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-May-2014 13-May-14 World View -- Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

Will Ukraine's 'People's Republic of Donetsk' be absorbed into Russia?

Kerry to meet with Palestinians to discuss ending aid

Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-May-2014
13-May-14 World View -- Mixed emotions over Narendra Modi's probable win in India