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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Jun-2014
1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea

Web Log - June, 2014

1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea

Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy
Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea

Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy

Boat with migrants fleeing from Libya (DW)

Boat with migrants fleeing from Libya (DW)

Over 3,500 migrants, including hundreds of women and children, as well as many unattached children, arrived in Italy in a single day, as the annual "migration season" begins to enter its peak period, thanks to the warm weather. Some 43,000 migrants have arrived so far this year, the same amount all of 2013. The migrants arrive from Syria and North Africa, and most are believed to have started crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. According to Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi:

"Europe has to call on the United Nations to intervene in Libya and more generally it must show a capacity to manage the immigration phenomenon."

Greece, Italy and Malta have repeatedly asked their fellow EU countries for help in handling the large numbers of migrants. Immigration was a major political issue in the recent elections for European Parliament, where a number of anti-immigrant parties did unexpectedly well. Deutsche Welle and Reuters

Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea

As we reported yesterday, Japan's president Shinzo Abe spoke on Friday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Asian security issues. He announced enhanced military relationships with Vietnam and the Philippines, and demanded that China abide by international rules and laws, rather than coercion and threats.

On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel gave a speech at the same conference, and expressed approval of Abe's plan. Hagel also made some harsh criticisms of China:

"But in recent months, China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea. It has restricted access to Scarborough Reef, put pressure on the long-standing Philippine presence at the Second Thomas Shoal, begun land reclamation activities at multiple locations, and moved an oil rig into disputed waters near the Paracel Islands.
The United States has been clear and consistent. We take no position on competing territorial claims. But we firmly oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to assert those claims.
We also oppose any effort – by any nation – to restrict overflight or freedom of navigation – whether from military or civilian vessels, from countries big or small. The United States will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged."

Now here's the problem: When Hagel says that the U.S. "will not look the other way when fundamental principles of the international order are being challenged," many people will not believe him. They will remember the following:

President Obama set a "red line" on chemical weapons in Syria, and flip-flopped when Syria's Bashar al-Assad started using them. In fact, al-Assad is now openly using chemical weapons in barrel bombs with complete impunity.
Russia has annexed the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine with impunity.
China has already annexed several regions in the South China sea, with complete impunity.
President Obama gave a foreign policy speech earlier this week credibly described, even by some Democrats, as a disastrously poor and incoherent speech, indicating a speaker with no clue what's going on in the world.

Now Hagel is setting another "red line." Does anyone really believe that the U.S. will do anything but "look the other way"? The following statement is attributed to Abraham Lincoln: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt." It seems that any time Hagel or President Obama or Secretary of State John Kerry opens his mouth, he makes a fool of himself. It would be better if they all followed Abraham Lincoln's advice and kept their mouths shut.

China's Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong responded to Hagel's speech:

"Secretary Hagel's speech is full of threats and intimidating language. Secretary Hagel's speech is full of encouragement, incitement for the Asia region's instability giving rise to a disturbance. Secretary Hagel, in this kind of public space with many people, openly criticized China without reason. This accusation is completely without basis. ...
It was ... filled with instigation, threat and intimidation, which wanted to incite the destabilizing factors of Asia-Pacific region to stir up disputes."

Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu said that the "charges are "groundless," and that:

"[T]he Americans are making very, very important strategic mistakes right now. ...
If you take China as an enemy, China will absolutely become the enemy of the US. If the Americans take China as an enemy, we Chinese have to take steps to make ourselves a qualified enemy of the US. But if the Americans take China as a friend, China will be a very loyal friend; and if they take China as a partner, China will be a very cooperative partner."

Dept. of Defense and Economic Times and Russia Today

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Jun-2014) Permanent Link
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