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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jun-2014
4-Jun-14 World View -- Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China

Web Log - June, 2014

4-Jun-14 World View -- Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China

Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

'Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat'
Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China
Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus

Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat

Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat (AFP)

Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat (AFP)

On May 24, a gunman entered the Jewish Museum in Brussels and shot three people dead, wounding a fourth. The perpetrator, Mehdi Nemmouche, 29, was finally captured on Monday, June 1, at a train station in Marseille. What has particular concerned French prosecutors is that Nemmouche had been radicalized by the Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) while spending a year fighting in Syria.

According to France's prime minister Manuel Valls, France is now increasing its estimate to 800 of the number of French people who have fought or plan to fight in Syria, and he warned that they pose an unprecedented security threat. According to Valls:

"We have never before faced a challenge of this kind. It is without any doubt the most serious threat we face.
We have to ensure the surveillance of hundreds and hundreds of French or European individuals who are today fighting in Syria."

Once again I'm repeating the point that I've been making now for well over a year, that Syria has become an international magnet for jihadists around the world, from places as far apart as Indonesia, Pakistan, North Africa, France, Germany and Dagestan. Recent research confirms that some 11,000 of these jihadists have flocked to Syria -- 3,000 from Western Europe and 100 from America. These jihadists will have no language or cultural problems when they return home, where they will pose a terrorist threat. AFP and BBC

Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China

China's belligerent military actions in the South China Sea, annexing regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, have drawn worldwide criticism, and caused Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines to form a military alliance to oppose China. The criticism is so sharp that a number of analysts have openly questioned why the Chinese would act so belligerently, if doing so incurred such criticism. These questions are extremely naive, but here are the answers from the point of view of Generational Dynamics:

The Chinese people are nationalistic almost to the point of hysteria, and believe that their military can beat anyone, including the US.

China is desperate for energy, and doesn't want to share South China Sea oil and gas deposits with anyone.

The "China Dream" is to replace the US as the major power of the world, though the Chinese people want to do it with thuggery and conquest and not, as the US did, by simply taking responsibility for the well-being of other nations.

The Chinese people hate the Vietnamese, Philippine and Japanese people. The feeling, incidentally, is mutual in each case.

Chinese actions towards the Vietnamese have been acts of war, or pretty close. News reports of Chinese ships using water cannons on Vietnamese ships seem to convey a benign impression. But these water cannons are being directed at doing maximum damage, to force the ships to return to port for repair. And that's only part of it. Chinese ships have been ramming smaller Vietnamese ships with the purpose of sinking them or damaging them beyond repair.

According to unconfirmed reports, Vietnam is developing an aggressive strategy to counter Chinese belligerence. The strategy develops in stages:

Vietnam's Coast Guard maintains a continuous perimeter around China's armada, and broadcasts daily reassertions of Vietnamese sovereignty.

Vietnam is considering legal action against China. This might take the form of support for the Philippines at the U.N. Arbitral Tribunal now in session.

Vietnam's aim is to avoid a direct confrontation, but to deter China by creating circumstances where China would have to accept the status quo or escalate. One Vietnamese proposal is to conduct surveillance patrols and exercises jointly with the Philippines and Japan, so that China would have to attack three countries at once. These patrols would be accompanied by unarmed U.S. Naval maritime surveillance aircraft already stationed in the Philippines.

Finally, a "mutually assured destruction" strategy to be applied only when relations with China have deteriorated to the point of armed conflict. Vietnam would launch ballistic missiles at China's merchant shipping and oil containers, with the objective of causing maximal psychological and economic damage. The next step would be to launch missiles at China's cities.

Once again, we have a strategy that's extremely naive. The strategy is "creating circumstances where China would have to accept the status quo or escalate." If this were 20 years ago, China would accept the status quo. But today, given a choice between accepting the status quo or escalating, China will escalate. And if Vietnam launches any ballistic missile at any China asset or city, China will clobber Vietnam, quickly spiraling into world war.

One way or another it's clear that Vietnam is not going to tolerate much longer China's annexing of Vietnamese property and attacking and crippling Vietnamese ships, without a substantially escalated response. The Diplomat and People's Daily (Beijing)

Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health on Tuesday reported 282 people have died from MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus), a major increase from the previous official death toll of 190. This is out of 688 total cases in Saudi Arabia. As happened last year, concerns are growing that a major pandemic might begin during the Hajj, when millions of Muslims from around the world arrive in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage. The Hajj in 2014 is scheduled for October 2-7. CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jun-14 World View -- Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (4-Jun-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jun-2014 4-Jun-14 World View -- Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China

Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat

Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China

Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus

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