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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jun-2014
16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold

Web Log - June, 2014

16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold

Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold
Senator Lindsey Graham says Obama has to order air strikes in Iraq
Rep Steve Stockman: U.S. planning a military operation to rescue the schoolgirls from Boko Haram
Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban

The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold

ISIS militants kill Iraqi soldiers after forcing them to lie in trenches

ISIS militants kill Iraqi soldiers after forcing them to lie in trenches

Here's a collection of facts that I gleaned from the Sunday news talk shows and from some media reports:

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is by far the most powerful and wealthiest terror group in the world now, much more powerful than al-Qaeda before 9/11.

ISIS has about $450 million in cash, after raiding the central bank in Mosul. This is in addition to billions of dollars' worth of dozens of tanks, humvees, helicopters, and other heavy weaponry, mostly American, that they got from weapons stores in Mosul that the Iraqi army was supposed to be guarding.

The tanks and helicopters are being driven and flown by former Sunni officers in Saddam Hussein's army, who have now joined with ISIS, out of disillusionment with and fury at the al-Maliki's government.

ISIS has set up jihadist training camps in Syria, and thousands of foreign fighters have gone there for training and to fight the regime of Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad. Syria is an international jihadist magnet, as we've been reporting for over a year.

On May 24, a gunman entered the Jewish Museum in Brussels and shot three people dead, wounding a fourth. It turned out that the perpetrator had been trained in Syria, and had spent a year fighting there. Thousands of young men from Europe have gone to Syria for jihadist training, as have almost 100 Americans.

These jihadists are much more dangerous than foreign-born terrorists, like those who perpetrated 9/11, because they have clean American passports, and can come and go as they please. Homeland Security now considers these ISIS-trained jihadists to be America's biggest domestic threat. Not only could more people die than on 9/11, but ISIS could bring worldwide economic chaos.

Within the space of a few days, ISIS marched south in Iraq, capturing Mosul, Baiji, Tikrit and parts of Samarra. That's about 200 miles in a few days.

At the same time, they captured 1,700 Iraqi soldiers who surrendered. ISIS has posted videos showing what happened to the ones in Tikrit. They were put into trucks, taken to a desert area, forced to march into trenches that had been dug, and then shot.

Iraq's president Nouri al-Maliki seems to have been successful in getting new army volunteers, almost all Shias from southern Iraq.

ISIS has been stopped about 60 miles north of Baghdad. The army seems to have stopped ISIS at that point, at least temporarily.

The citizens of Baghdad are in a state of total panic because they believe they're next. The city is in chaos.

There are thousands of Americans and Westerners living in Baghdad. They are going to be targeted.

Baghdad has the largest American embassy in the world, with 1500 employees. Some unspecified number of those employees are being evacuated to Irbil, Basra and Amman Jordan.

As the situation worsens in Iraq, President Obama is going to be under enormous pressure to intervene militarily. Air strikes are a possibility, but to be effective they need someone on the ground to pick out target. If the Iraqis do that, then they may target political enemies rather than ISIS. Or maybe we can let Iranian forces pick out targets for us. If Iraq really begins to deteriorate, there will be a lot of pressure on Obama to send in some troops, at least special forces.

Obama has made any American military involvement contingent on al-Maliki resolving the bitter political dispute between Shias and Sunnis. That's not going to happen. It sounds like Obama is in yet another "red line" situation. What's he going to do next?

LA Times and Israel National News and Slate

Senator Lindsey Graham says Obama has to order air strikes in Iraq

I listened to numerous interviews on the Sunday morning news talk shows, and I felt the best one was the CNN interview with South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham:

DONNA BASH: And, Senator, on the issue of Iraq, I know that you have said that you think U.S. airstrikes is the only answer right now. But I want you and our viewers to look at something, the toll so far when it comes to Iraq, 4,424 deaths, wounded, 32,239, and then the cost of money, $770 billion. I have got to ask the question that I'm sure so many Americans out there watching are going to ask. Why spend one more dollar or risk one more life?
GRAHAM: Because Iraq and Syria combined are going to be the staging area for the next 9/11 if we don't do something about it. The people holding ground in Iraq also hold ground in Syria. Economic instability that comes from a collapsed Iraq will affect gas prices and our economic recovery. But the main reason is, if ISIS is not dealt with, that's the staging area for a new attack on the United States. They -- the -- the predecessor -- they're the follow-on to al Qaeda in Iraq.
What they will do is use the area between Baghdad, Kurdistan and Syria to operate with impunity. They have a lot of wealth. They will plan an attack against our country. And my biggest fear is that they're going to march toward Jordan.
And I hope America understands that, if the king of Jordan goes, if he's the victim of these guys, then the whole Mideast is in turmoil.
BASH: And you really thinks that's possible?
GRAHAM: Yes.
GLORIA BORGER: What makes -- what makes you think they have the organization to pull something like that off?
GRAHAM: What makes you think they don't?
Look what's happened. Look what's happened. They have basically occupied a portion of Syria. They -- they took the second largest city in Iraq. They're going into Baghdad.
My number one goal is, let us stop them from going into Baghdad, not the Iranians. If the central government in Iraq collapses -- and that's their goal -- they're trying to get the Iraqi government to collapse -- the Iranians dominate the south. They will own all the resources in the south.
These guys will operate from Baghdad to Kurdistan, all the way into Syria. They will consolidate economic and military power. They will march towards Jordan and Lebanon. And they will use that space to attack us. If Baghdad falls, if the central government falls, a disaster awaits us of monumental proportions.
BASH: Now, the question about the leadership there now, Prime Minister Maliki, he is somebody who perhaps has not done all the things that the U.S. should have -- wanted them to do, which is, I think, an understatement.
GRAHAM: Yes.
BASH: So is he the right man for the -- to lead Iraq right now?
GRAHAM: No. Stop the march on Baghdad. Form a new government. Send Petraeus and Crocker over, somebody who knows...
BORGER: How do you form a new government? It's a democracy.
GRAHAM: There are plenty of voices over there.
He [al-Maliki] should resign. He's incapable of bringing the Sunnis back into the fold. Three things have happened in 2010 and '11 to create this. How did we get there should be the question. Al Qaeda in Iraq, the predecessor to ISIS, was on their back, just about gone. Syria blows up. They get reinforcements from Syria into Iraq.
Maliki withdrawals from the coalition. He becomes a sectarian leader. Obama's administration is completely hands-off, and we withdraw troops in 2011. That's the perfect storm.
BORGER: But whose fault was that? You know, the...
GRAHAM: That's President Obama's fault.
BORGER: Why is that President Obama's fault? Maliki didn't want to leave a residual force there.
GRAHAM: Bush -- no, that is not true. That is absolutely a lie.
I was there on the ground, at the request of Secretary Clinton. Maliki, Barzani and the Sunnis were willing to accept an American force. We wanted the agreement to go through parliament, which would have been a disaster.
They got what they wanted. The Obama administration wanted to say: I ended the war in Iraq. I'm going to end the war in Afghanistan.
This was as predictable as the sun rising in the east. I blame President Obama mightily for a hands-off policy when it comes to Iraq.
BASH: Because, I mean, we can debate this probably for a long time, because Maliki...
GRAHAM: Look forward.
BASH: OK. So, looking forward, Iran, Bloomberg News had an interesting op-ed today, saying that they are sort of the frenemies of the U.S. right now in Iraq. And people might not realize this, that Iran, who is generally no friend of the U.S., is now potentially working -- going to work with the U.S. on Iraq. ... How -- does that make you feel comfortable or comfortable?
GRAHAM: No. Hell no, it doesn't.
Why did we deal with Stalin? Because he was not as bad as Hitler. The Iranians can provide some assets to make sure Baghdad doesn't fall. We need to coordinate with the Iranians. And the Turks need to get in the game and get the Sunni Arabs back into the game, form a new government without Maliki.
But, yes, I don't want Iran to dominate Iraq. And that's where they're headed. If the central government falls, the Iranians are going on the Shia area of -- of Iraq, the south. Don't the Iranians save Baghdad. Let us save Baghdad, so there will be a chance at a second government.
BORGER: Do you -- is it your prediction that, eventually, this White House will go for airstrikes?
GRAHAM: I think they have to. And it's stunning to me that nobody in Congress is saying, you have got to come to us first. Everybody in Congress is scared to death of what's going to happen in Iraq. They won't come out and admit it. But nobody is saying, Mr. President, don't use airpower. The air force in Iraq, I think, has been grounded. But Nic will know that better than I do.

CNN

Rep Steve Stockman: U.S. planning a military operation to rescue the schoolgirls from Boko Haram

A U.S. Congressional delegation is in Nigeria to discuss the terrorist group Boko Haram, which continues to abduct schoolgirls. According to Texas congressman Steve Stockman, the U.S. is planning military action in Nigeria:

"We get briefed by the military and pending the approval of the government of Nigeria and our government, we plan to take action, but I don�t think we are going specifics this time; it was a classified briefing. We stand ready to help and as soon as our government and Nigerian government approves, we will take action.
What I want to say is that I think what it is right now is to work with the Nigerian government in training of the military. I want to emphasize again here that we have come all these miles to say that our Congress stands ready to cooperate and the government in a manner that is appropriate and with the consent of Nigerian government. And I want to emphasize the need for the Victims Relief Fund because there is so much suffering going on by the young girls and the their families that have been touched by this violence."

World Stage Group (Lagos, Nigeria)

Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban

Last week's massive terrorist attack on the Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, Pakistan, on Sunday has shocked the nation, and pressured the government to order the army to do something it's never done before: to go in and clean out the hideouts and weapons stores in the North Waziristan Agency in Pakistan's tribal area that are making the terrorist strikes possible.

According to a Pakistan army statement:

"On the directions of the government, armed forces of Pakistan have launched a comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists who are hiding in sanctuaries in North Waziristan Agency. The operation has been named Zarb-e-Azb. ...
Using North Waziristan as a base, these terrorists had waged a war against the state of Pakistan and had been disrupting our national life in all its dimensions, stunting our economic growth and causing enormous loss of life and property. They had also paralyzed life within the [North Waziristan] agency and had perpetually terrorized the entire peace loving and patriotic local population.
Our valiant armed forces have been tasked to eliminate these terrorists regardless of hue and color, along with their sanctuaries. With the support of the entire nation, and in coordination with other state institutions and law enforcement agencies, these enemies of the state will be denied space anywhere across the country. As always, armed forces of Pakistan will not hesitate in rendering any sacrifice for the motherland."

An unnamed official says, "Thousands of troops will participate in this action. You can roughly say 25,000 to 30,000 troops will be involved in the operation."

Reports indicate that many people, both civilians and militants, have left North Waziristan in the last few days because the army offensive was anticipated.

The prime minister Nawaz Sharif has tried everything possible to avoid this moment, including attempted "peace talks" with the Taliban that could never have succeeded. This is a very significant change in direction for Pakistan. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Jun-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jun-2014 16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold

The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold

Senator Lindsey Graham says Obama has to order air strikes in Iraq

Rep Steve Stockman: U.S. planning a military operation to rescue the schoolgirls from Boko Haram

Pakistan launches major military action against Taliban

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Jun-2014
16-Jun-14 World View -- The size of the Iraq catastrophe continues to unfold