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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jul-2014
11-Jul-14 World View -- Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China

Web Log - July, 2014

11-Jul-14 World View -- Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China

A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine
Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China

A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine

Ukrainians in a refugee camp in southern Russia (Russia Today)

Ukrainians in a refugee camp in southern Russia (Russia Today)

The decisive victory of the Ukraine government forces over the pro-Russian separatists in Slovyansk last week has left the Russian leaders searching for a new direction. At one extreme, a group led by Russian ultra-nationalist Alexander Dugin, who first called for the annexation of Crimea, is calling on Russia's president Vladimir Putin to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine, "to save Russia's moral authority." The pro-Russian separatists did not even put up much of a fight, in Slovyansk and several other cities, fleeing to other strongholds in Donetsk and Luhansk. The leader of the separatists is insisting that there will be no retreat from Donetsk, but Moscow fears that those two cities will fall quickly as well, leading to total humiliation in Moscow.

Ukraine's military offensive is continuing, with air strikes targeting separatists positions near Donetsk, killing and dislodging them. Ukraine's ground forces are attempting to close the border with Russia, which has been a sieve through which Russia has supplied the separatists with tanks, armored personnel carriers, anti-aircraft guns, and other weapons. Ukraine's government is resisting calls for a cease-fire, and says that the "all-out" assault on pro-Russian separatists may last another month

According to one analysis, the Russian air force could be preparing for a covert action over Donbas to support the rebels, as a last step short of direct intervention. In a similar conflict in 1992–1993 in Abkhazia, Russian air force jets and helicopter gunships attacked Georgian government positions, posing as unidentified rebel aircraft, while Moscow stringently denied any involvement — as today it denies sending arms and men into Donbas. If there is no ceasefire soon, the Russian air force may go into covert action over Donbas as early as next week. Jamestown and BBC and AFP and Jamestown

Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China

Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines have been forming an alliance against China, as China has been moving to annex other countries' territories in the South and East China Seas. Relations between Vietnam and China have become particularly hostile since China deployed an oil rig in Vietnam's exclusive economic zone (EEZ). (See "China's neighbors react to new South China Sea claims" from last week.)

Now Australia is signaling that it is also joining this alliance. The change in policy was indicated in a statement by Australia's foreign minister, Julie Bishop, during a visit by Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe to Australia to meet Australia's prime minister Tony Abbott. Like many of China's neighbors, Australia had had a policy of being careful not to anger China, for fear of retaliation.

But there was a major confrontation last November, after China announced an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), demanding that any foreign aircraft flying into the East China Sea would have to inform China's military beforehand. ( "24-Nov-13 World View -- In new escalation, China demands to control air space over Japan's Senkaku islands".)

Julie Bishop was visiting Beijing at that time, and complained about the unilateral declaration of the ADIZ. According to reports, China's foreign minister told her that the ADIZ was none of her business, and he "famously tore strips off her," with cameras rolling. ("Tear strips off somebody" is apparently an Australian expression meaning to severely scold someone.)

So now, Bishop is explaining that she's learned some lessons from that experience. In particular, Australia's previous policies of reticence toward China have only caused confusion, and that it's better to be frank than misunderstood:

"China doesn’t respect weakness.
The freedom of the skies and freedom of the seas in that part of the world is important to us because that’s where the majority of our trade is done.
So I believed that, at that time, we had to make it clear where we stood on unilateral action that could be seen as coercive and could be seen to – and which did – affect our national interests. ...
So, when something affects our national interest then we should make it very clear about where we stand."

Bishop said she had no doubt that America would remain the pre-eminent force internationally:

"This is a debate that the US will have to have about its role in the world. It is currently the only super power with the military capability to act globally and the US must determine whether it’s going to continue in that role. I believe that it must, and it will."

Sydney Morning Herald

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jul-14 World View -- Australia joins Japan, Vietnam, Philippines in opposing China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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A humiliated Russia considers next steps in east Ukraine

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