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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jul-2014
14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

Web Log - July, 2014

14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Nigeria's Boko Haram takes credit for Lagos explosion
Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria
Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

Nigeria's Boko Haram takes credit for Lagos explosion

In a 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau is claiming responsibility for a bombing in Nigeria's main southern port city of Lagos on June 25, a bombing that the government apparently tried to cover up by saying that it was an accident. There was a huge explosion on June 25 in a shopping mall in Nigeria's capital city Abuja, killing 24 people, as we reported at the time,, and Boko Haram was assumed responsible for it. However, the second explosion on the same day, in Lagos, was called an accident by the government, apparently to avoid panicking the population. Investigations by the press had already determined that it was a terrorist attack, not an accident, and now Boko Haram is claiming responsibility.

A terrorist attack on Lagos could be a significant blow to Nigeria's economy because Lagos is an international business hub. The target of the Lagos attack was a fuel depot. Fortunately, the female suicide bomber never reached the depot because, if she had, it would have caused a massive chain explosion. Since the suicide bomber was apparently poorly trained, it's thought that the bombing was perpetrated by Boko Haram itself.

Boko Haram has been thought of as a terrorist group operating in northeast Nigeria, where it has abducted hundreds of schoolgirls, who have still not been freed after several months. If group can now conduct terror attacks all the way to the Lagos in the south, it would mean a significant increase in Boko Haram's reach.

There's also evidence that Boko Haram is responsible for numerous attacks on farmers. Almost every developing country has major battles at some point between farmers and cattle or camel herders. The herders' animals trample the farmers' crops, infuriating the farmers. The farmers then put up fences which block the herders, infuriating the herders. This is a theme in several African countries, including Kenya and Sudan. In Nigeria, there have been a marked increase in deadly attacks on farmers, and they've been blamed on cattle herders from the Fulani tribe. But some officials suspect that the attacks might be linked to Boko Haram, who are from the Kanuri ethnic group, but may have been infiltrated by Fulani. Nigeria Guardian News and Reuters

Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria

In the 16-minute video, Boko Haram chief Abubakar Shekau mocks the #BringBackOurGirls hashtag twitter campaign, featuring Michele Obama carrying a sign with the hash tag. The campaign has been completely ineffective.

There have been numerous questions about why the U.S. isn't doing more to help Nigeria recover the girls. The question was answered on Thursday by Lauren Blanchard, a specialist on African affairs, speaking to a Congressional committee. According to Blanchard:

"[The main impediment is] gross violations committed by the Nigerian forces, the Nigerian government’s resistance to adopting a more comprehensive approach to Boko Haram, and the continued lack of political will."

In particular, the Nigerian government has simply stalled in approving Nigerian units for training and assistance:

"Multiple systemic factors further constrain the effectiveness of the Nigerian security force’s response to Boko Haram, notably security sector corruption and mismanagement, and some of these factors impede US support even for units that have been cleared for assistance."

It's suspected that because of tribal loyalties, some factions in Nigeria's army and policy are sympathizing with Boko Haram, and perhaps working for the terrorist group. Osun Defender (Nigeria)

Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

Militants in Egypt's northern Sinai, near the border with Israel, fired mortar rounds late Sunday at a military post, killing a soldier and seven civilians. Militants in Sinai have also fired rockets at Israel in support of Palestinians during the war in Gaza.

Militants have found a haven in northern Sinai, particularly after the turmoil in Egypt since 2011. Egyptian officials are concerned that the rise of Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria (IS or ISIS) will increase terrorist activities in Sinai. The fear is that al-Qaeda linked organizations and Salafist jihadists will merge with ISIS or "declare allegiance" to it. It's not expected that many jihadists in Sinai to convert to ISIS, and it's believed that there are no Egyptians in the ISIS command hierarchy. In fact, some Muslim Brotherhood leaders have refused to recognize ISIS. But ISIS might attack supporters among extremist militias in Libya, or from Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), and those supporters might come to Sinai. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Al-Ahram

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jul-2014 14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

Nigeria's Boko Haram takes credit for Lagos explosion

Why the U.S. can't offer effective help to Nigeria

Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jul-2014
14-Jul-14 World View -- Terrorist attacks in Egypt's Sinai raise fears of ISIS links