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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire

Web Log - July, 2014

24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire

Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Hamas leader Meshaal demands an end to Gaza 'siege' before cease-fire
Mahmoud Abbas reverses course and supports Hamas
Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya

Hamas leader Meshaal demands an end to Gaza 'siege' before cease-fire

Khaled Meshaal giving speech on Wednesday (Al-Jazeera)

Khaled Meshaal giving speech on Wednesday (Al-Jazeera)

With US Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon running around from country to country in the Mideast, hoping to get credit for being the one to mediate a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. However, a major speech by Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal on Wednesday indicates that there is no hope of cease-fire. Meshaal spoke for almost an hour, and repeatedly made it clear that Hamas would not agree to a cease-fire.

More specifically, Meshaal made a series of demands that must precede a cease-fire. The major demand, repeated over and over, is an end to the "siege" of Gaza -- allow the free flow of goods and people in and out of Gaza. Here are some excerpts from his speech:

"It's been more than seven years, since 2006 [when Israel imposed the siege]. It was a collective punishment for all Palestinians because they elected their leaders through the ballot box [referring to the election of Hamas to govern Gaza]. ...
Killing by siege and starvation is no less than killing by bullets. Swift killing is as punishable as slow killing. Besieging free men turns them into time bombs. It will explode one day in the face of the occupier and those who have led the siege. Gaza has turned into a fireball in the face of those who have turned the siege to them. ...
Give me the price. What is the price to pay? How many Israeli soldiers do you wish to see dead in order to see the siege lifted from Gaza?"

Meshaal said that Hamas agreed to a cease-fire after the 2009 and 2012 wars, but the siege continued afterwards, and so Gaza accomplished nothing. This time, Hamas will not agree to a cease-fire unless the siege is ended first.

Ending the siege was Meshaal's principal demand. Other demands included end the occupation of the West Bank, return Jerusalem to the Palestinians, free the Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails, open the Rafah border crossing between Egypt and Gaza, lift the naval blockade, lift the border controls with Israel, allow 1948 Palestinian refugees to return to their homes ("right of return").

Meshaal believes that because of the large numbers of Palestinian casualties, international pressure on Israeli will force it to give up and withdraw from Gaza. In fact, I've seen several pundits express the view that the pressure is getting so great that Israel will have to back down by the end of this week.

Meshaal also made a reference to the fact that American and European airlines are refusing to land Israel's Ben Gurion airport, because of Gaza's rockets. He said that Israel is almost "panicking" because of an increased feeling of isolation. "They're starting to taste what we have been tasting for years."

The logic of the situation is that no cease-fire is possible at this time. Meshaal has made it clear that even if Israel backs down, then the rocket attacks from Gaza will continue, and that would just force Israel to return. On the other hand, even if Hamas agreed to a cease-fire, the other Gaza militias will not go along, and once again, the rocket attacks will continue.

It's also worth mentioning that one of Meshaal's demands is not even under Israel's control. Israel has taken no position on whether Egypt should open or close the Rafah border crossing, but the government of Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi has made it clear that they consider Hamas to be a terrorist group, and that the Rafah border crossing will remain closed except for specific humanitarian purposes. Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and BBC

Mahmoud Abbas reverses course and supports Hamas

As I wrote for the first time in 2003, it's the survivors of the genocidal 1948 war between Jews and Arabs that have prevented a war that major from occurring again. In 2003, Yassir Arafat and Ariel Sharon, both survivors of the 1948 war, were the respective leaders of the Palestinians and Israelis. Today, both of them are gone, and in fact, almost every other survivor is also gone, with Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas being the sole major leader with personal memories of the horrors of the 1948 war.

Since 2003, as the number of 1948 war survivors have disappeared, and younger generations have grown to take their place, relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians have become increasingly dangerous. Among the Palestinians, Abbas has been the most important leader engage in peace talks and oppose the worst forms of Palestinian extremism, but his views are being opposed more and more by younger generations within his own PA organization.

The Gaza war and its hundreds of Palestinian casualties may have been a turning point for Abbas. Whereas he's been sharply critical of Hamas almost every day until yesterday, on Tuesday he gave a speech indicating a complete U-turn.

"From the first moment of this barbaric Israeli aggression against our people in Gaza, in Jerusalem, and in the West Bank, we have called loudly about the necessity of stopping this aggression. ...
We have appealed to Egypt and have held talks with the president and with the relevant Palestinian factions, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad. After that, we appealed to Turkey and Qatar; we approached the leaderships in both countries, and we met there with [Hamas political bureau head] Khaled Mashaal in order to stop the Israeli aggression and to arrive at a ceasefire, and from there to act to end the siege, to open the crossings, and to stop the aggression in all its forms; we demanded that [Israel] respect the Gazans' fishing rights, that it abolish the so-called 'buffer zones,' that it free the prisoners from the Shalit deal that Israel has re-arrested, that it free the fourth phase of the long-term prisoners and Legislative Council members; that there be an immediate operation to bring humanitarian aid [into Gaza], and that there be an international conference for the [countries] that are donating to Gaza's rehabilitation.
"The time has come for everyone to raise their voices and tell the truth, clearly and powerfully, in the face of the Israeli killing and destruction machine. The oppressing occupation forces have crossed every line and [have broken] all the laws. They have deviated from all standards of human and international morality in their ferocity and barbarism."

If this is indeed a complete U-turn by Abbas, then it's an extremely significant change in the geopolitics of the Mideast. It makes a cease-fire even less likely, if that's possible. But also, it's a big step forward toward the major war between Jews and Arabs that will engulf the region. Memri and BBC

Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya

Militants attacked an Egyptian military checkpoint on the border with Libya on Saturday, kill 21 border guards. The attack began with an exchange of gunfire, followed by the exploding of the checkpoint's ammunition storage by means of rocket-propelled grenades.

Hundreds of people have been killed in terrorist attacks in Egypt in the last year. The attacks have been focused mainly in northern Egypt in Sinai, on the border with Gaza and Israel. Egypt has blamed many of these attacks on militants from Hamas.

These two stories are closely related. There are large caches of weapons and explosives that were left behind during the war that defeated Muammar Gaddafi, and militants have been transporting these arms and explosives from Libya by various routes to Sinai. (See "2-Apr-14 World View -- Egypt's terror cells get training in Syria and explosives from Libya")

The terrorists who killed the border guards on Saturday are believed to be part of that transportation network.

So Saturday's terrorist attack may have been far away from the war in Gaza, but it's closely connected, and it helps explain why Egypt is not likely to help end the "siege" of Gaza by opening the border crossing at Rafah. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2014 24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire

Hamas leader Meshaal demands an end to Gaza 'siege' before cease-fire

Mahmoud Abbas reverses course and supports Hamas

Gunmen kill 21 Egyptian border guards on border with Libya

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jul-2014
24-Jul-14 World View -- Palestinians harden demands for agreement to a Gaza cease-fire