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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Jul-2014
25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

Web Log - July, 2014

25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace
Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace

Aftermath of missile strike in Gaza (CNN)

Aftermath of missile strike in Gaza (CNN)

Jeffrey Feldman, the United Nations Undersecretary for Political Affairs, was interviewed on the BBC on Thursday, and asked why this iteration of the war between the Israelis and Hamas should be any different that the last ones, in 2008 and 2012.

He was asked:

"When the world thinks about just the two most recent bouts of violence -- major violence between Israel and Palestinian militants in Gaza in 2008 and 2012, essentially the dispute was exactly the same as this - which was - Israel was saying, "We simply can't put up with rockets being fired onto our territory," and Hamas was saying, "We want the blockade of Gaza lifted."
The two sides are saying exactly the same thing again now. When we finally do get to a ceasefire, which undoubtedly we will at some point - what's to make you or anybody else think that we simply won't be back here again in a couple of years time?"

His response:

"That's definitely a risk.
And I go back to the Security Council resolution that we passed back in January 2009, in one of th earlier episodes of violence that you've referred to. Because that security council resolution put obligations on the parties to do certain things -- to address the very issues you raise.
It's intolerable for both the Palestinians and the Israelis that the situation that existed before this current round of violence started continues. The situation doesn't simply repeat itself, but it seems to get worse with every time the repetition comes in. That shock is what I hope we can use in order to get the Israelis and Palestinians awake to address the underlying issues of security, of access, of trade and transport and movement."

So Feldman acknowledges that the situation is getting worse each time, but comes to the truly incredible solution that this is going to "shock" the Israelis and Hamas into an agreement, presumably that Israel will end the blockade, and Hamas will stop shooting rockets. How can someone who claims to be an "expert" know so little about history as to reach this inane conclusion?

I'm always reminded about the 2005-8 time frame, and the number of people that I told, I exhorted, not to buy real estate, because there was a big real estate bubble, and they would lose everything. Many went ahead, and lost everything, and then were furious at me because of human perversity. I understood that they weren't mad at me -- they were mad at themselves for having been so stupid.

For the past few years, when I talk about China's increasingly bellicose and obvious preparations for preemptive war with the United States, I've found that many people don't even want to think about it in any way. It's not that they have even a minimally informed opinion, but they consider it as impossible as, say, the bursting of a real estate bubble. (v. Churchill)

I'm finding exactly the same sort of attitude today with respect to the war between the Israelis and Hamas. It's possible, even likely, that Israel will "win" this war. But will the Palestinians be so "shocked" by this that they'll give up their demands for the "right of return" and the elimination of Israel?

As Feldman says, the trend has been in the opposite direction. Things are getting worse during each repetition. That's the trend. When a trend exists, if you're going to argue that the trend won't continue, then you need at least to provide a rational explanation why you believe that. But Feldman is predicting that the trend will fall off a cliff, and he's providing no explanation whatsoever except wishful thinking. And remember, this is from a so-called "expert."

What's changed in the Mideast between 2008 and now? What's changed is that each year more combative people from younger generations replace more compromising people in key positions from older generations, especially generations that survived the incredible horrors of the 1948 war. That's what Generational Dynamics is all about, it never ceases to amaze that that no matter how utterly obvious these generational predictions and analyses are, and no matter how many times the generational predictions turn out to be right, over and over and over, while the ideologues on all sides turn out to be wrong, there are many people who simply cannot wrap their heads around the possibility that these predictions will actually occur -- until they do occur, and there's no choice. It's just human nature for people to stick their heads in the sand, as ostriches allegedly do. But humans are much more ostrich-like than ostriches. Spiegel

Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

Hamas has been facing a great deal of international criticism for using Palestinian children as "human shields," putting rockets and missiles in schools and hospitals. A couple of days ago, we quoted Palestinian spokeswoman Hanan Ashrawi absurdly characterizing such charges as "racism."

On Thursday, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal was asked on the BBC to further provide an explanation:

INTERVIEWER: How can any idea of resistance justify putting rockets in a school building?
MESHAAL: Frankly speaking, this is a lie. Let Israelis show where the rocket launchers are in Gaza.
INTERVIEWER: This is not something that has come form Israel. This is the UN Relief and Works Agency.
MESHALL: This is not true. Rocket launchers in Gaza belong to the resistance. They are underground, and Israel is unable to reach them. This is why it pretends they are in civilian areas.

So we have a perfectly reasonable question, and we have two bizarre answers from two Palestinian representatives. It's a sign of desperation that Hamas has not been able to come up with satisfactory narrative to the "human shield" question.

The repeated lying is a sign of desperation, and in fact, Hamas may be so desperate that it's not certain that it will survive this war, no matter who "wins." This is another thing that's changed in the Mideast since the previous wars. Hamas used to have strong support from Syria and Egypt. But the Syrian genocide has caused a rift, while the Egyptian military coup against the Muslim Brotherhood government led by Mohammed Morsi has turned Hamas from a friend of Egypt to an enemy. Add to that, the Gaza economy is on the ropes, and there are numerous reports that the Hamas government cannot even pay its own employees. Finally, it's worth repeating that the median age in Gaza is 18, which means that, to a large extent, it's the newer militias that are de facto in charge, with the aging Hamas bureaucracy becoming less relevant. So, it's not unreasonable to consider that Hamas will not survive the Gaza war, no matter what its outcome.

As we've described recently ( "22-Jul-14 World View -- Gaza war splits Arab states into competing alliances"), Hamas still has some powerful supporters -- namely, Qatar, Turkey and Iran.

But Israel also has extremely powerful Arab allies -- Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Reports are emerging that these countries are fully committed to helping Israel defeat Hamas. Egypt's peace initiative last week was specifically designed so that Israel could accept it, while Hamas would have to reject it. The Saudis are using economic pressure in Europe to be evenhanded about condemning "criminal" acts by Hamas and Israel, and to go along with Israel's demand that Hamas be "demilitarized," in order for peace to be permanent. These actions provide political cover for Israel in the international arena, despite the huge numbers of Palestinian casualties, and permit Israel to continue its military campaign unhindered by complaints from the Obama administration and John Kerry.

What Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are planning for is the destruction of the Hamas government and its military capabilities, replacing it with a new government headed by a (hopefully) more moderate Palestinian Authority. For this plan to succeed, Israel's military attack on Gaza would have to become even more forceful and potent than it already is, in order to clean up the Hamas military structure as rapidly as possible.

Well, this would be a breathtaking development, assuming that these reports are true. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I would have to provide exactly the same kinds of warnings and cautions that I provided by Jeffrey Feldman at the start of this World View column.

Let's assume that all these objectives are met successfully, that Hamas has been removed, and a "moderate" Palestinian government has been installed. The "trend" that things are getting worse, described by Feldman, would not be changed by this development. Whatever the government, Gaza would still have a dense population with an average age of 18 years old, making it a territory being run by children with guns, rockets and missiles. There is no reason to be believe that a "moderate" government would be any more successful in governing Gaza as Hamas. And there's no reason to believe that this kind of military victory and imposed government wouldn't lead to a new war in a couple of years time, even worse than this one. Middle East Eye and BBC and Israel Hayom and CNN and Debka (paywall)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war? thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 25-Jul-2014 25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

UN official says that Mideast will be 'shocked' into peace

Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?

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25-Jul-14 World View -- Can Hamas survive the Gaza war?