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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jul-2014
28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war

Web Log - July, 2014

28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war

United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war
Generational timeline for Libya
United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars

Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war

Black plumes of smoke rise from the fighting in Benghazi (Reuters)

Black plumes of smoke rise from the fighting in Benghazi (Reuters)

The United States, Britain, Turkey, and other countries are closing their embassies in Tripoli, Libya, and asking their employees to flee as quickly as possible to the safety of neighboring Tunisia. Libya's government, such as it is, appears to have completely lost control of the country, and tribal battles are becoming more violent, especially in Tripoli and Benghazi. Over 150 people have died in clashes in and around the two cities during the last two weeks. This is the deadliest violence in Libya since the 2011 Libyan war.

Three years after the downfall of Muammar Gaddafi, the country is becoming polarized between two main militia factions.

In the chaos that followed the end of the war, the Islamist militias centered in the city of Misurata led an effort to eliminate all politicians who had supported Gaddafi. This resulted in the political elimination of many moderate politicians, leaving the Islamists in charge.

Until two months ago, Islamist militias linked to the Muslim Brotherhood were in control of Tripoli, Benghazi, and other cities. These included the Misurata militias, and other militias that joined as allies. One of these is Ansar al-Sharia, operating in Benghazi, which is believed responsible for the September 11, 2012, attack in Benghazi that killed U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans. The political wing of the Islamist militias is the Justice and Construction Party, which is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and controls the parliament, known as the General National Congress (GNC).

In May, an anti-Islamist military action was launched by other militias that opposed the Islamist militias. These militias, sometimes called "nationalist militias," are headed by 71 year old Khalifa Hifter (or Hafter). Hifter was an ally of Muammar Gaddafi in the 1969 Libyan revolution, but he turned against Gaddafi in the 1980s, and fled to the U.S. where he apparently became a citizen living in Virginia. He returned to Libya after the 2011 war, and is now leading the military operation to overthrow the Islamists.

Hifter leads the Libyan National Army, and is backed by many former military officers as well as militias tied to the cities of Benghazi, Tobruk and Ajdabiya in the east and Zintan in the west. Reuters and LA Times

Generational timeline for Libya

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Developing a generational timeline for Libya has been a very difficult task because of the paucity of information about the tribal wars that occurred during Libya's colonial period. However, during the 2011 Libyan war, correspondence with several web site readers led to the conclusion that Libya's last generational crisis war began in 1911 when the Italians defeated the Ottoman empire in Tripolitania. In the 1920s, there were a series of extremely bloody, brutal massacres of Libyan tribes, first in Cyrenaica, and then in Fezzan, wiping out a large percentage of the Libyan population. This analysis has to be tempered by the observation that Libya is a large country with many tribes, and some portions of the country may be on separate generational timelines. However, for the populated northern regions, the last generational crisis war appears to have been the Italian conquests, climaxing in 1934.

This analysis implies that Libya is deep into a generational crisis era. As we pointed out at the conclusion of the 2011 war, it's highly likely that the war will be resumed, and some of the tribal wars of the 1930s will probably be re-fought. Fighting between the two major groups of militias has been steadily increasing since May, and it's possible that we're seeing the start of that now.

United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is developing a space program with the intention of eventually landing human beings on Mars. It's felt that the space program could also inspire thousands of Emiratis to pursue careers in the space industry, opening the door to new research bodies and university courses in aerospace engineering, resulting in "millions of young scientists and engineers." The National (UAE)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jul-2014 28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war

Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war

Generational timeline for Libya

United Arab Emirates to launch a space program to reach Mars

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Jul-2014
28-Jul-14 World View -- Embassies in Tripoli evacuated, as Libya sinks into tribal war