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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Jul-2014
31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

Web Log - July, 2014

31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides
Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

Screen grab from Hamas video showing Hamas fighters kicking Israeli soldier

Screen grab from Hamas video showing Hamas fighters kicking Israeli soldier

Israel received almost worldwide condemnation on Wednesday for air strikes on a crowded Gaza marketplace and on a United Nations shelter, killing or wounding over 100 innocent civilians, including women and children.

On the other hand, Hamas released a taunting video of how they used one of their tunnels under the border fence between Gaza and Israel on Monday to surprise and kill five Israeli soldiers.

And yet, there is one thing that Hamas and the Israelis agree on: They don't want to go back to the status quo ante.

Israelis are now aware of a massive tunnel complex under Gaza, much more sophisticated than they'd previously estimated. Every (Jewish) Israeli citizen is aware of the danger that this poses, and the left and right are united in support of the army in continuing its ground operations and air strikes on Gaza with the objective of destroying the rockets and destroying the entire tunnel complex. Polls indicate that Israelis will not agree to a ceasefire unless all army meets its objectives.

Palestinians are aware that if they agree to a ceasefire now, before the "siege" is lifted, then the war will have gained them nothing. That means that the annihilation of hundreds of civilians, the destruction of hundreds of homes, businesses and hospitals, the devastation of Gaza's infrastructure -- all of that will have been for nothing. Polls indicate that Palestinians will not agree to a ceasefire unless the "siege" (blockade) is lifted, meaning that people and goods can flow freely in and out of Gaza.

Thus, in a sense, this war has become "existential" for both sides. Neither side can back down, which logically implies that the war will continue for some time to come, to the point of exhaustion. Perhaps someone can figure out a compromise -- say 90% of the tunnels are destroyed, and some symbolic steps are taken to weaken the blockade. Or perhaps Israel will re-occupy Gaza, reversing the decision it made in 2005. Daily Mail (London) and AP and Al Arabiya and Jerusalem Post

Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

American influence played a big role in Central Asia in the 1990s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and grew even larger after 2001 when the Afghanistan war began. But now, American influence is falling rapidly, as the U.S. withdraws troops from Afghanistan and, at the same time, sharply reduces aid to Central Asian countries for such things as anti-drug programs. There's probably no greater symbol of this loss of influence than Manas International Airport in Bishkek, the capital city of Kyrgyzstan. A couple of years ago, you would typically see dozens of US C-17 transports, carrying troops and equipment to and from Afghanistan. Today, the US is gone, and the airport is almost deserted. Kyrgyzstan used to be a country of major strategic importance, as it leveraged Russia and America against each other, but now the country in clearly in Russia's orbit.

The change is highlighted by "Enduring Brotherhood 2014," joint peacekeeping military exercises now taking place in Kyrgyzstan by the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led military cooperative of six countries: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. 700 troops are taking part in the exercises, kicked off after a four-day drill by CSTO's Collective Rapid Deployment Force. Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (IDSA - New Delhi) and Jamestown and Central Asia Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (31-Jul-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Jul-2014 31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides

Russia replaces America's influence in Central Asia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Jul-2014
31-Jul-14 World View -- The Gaza war becomes existential for both sides