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 Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's


Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Aug-2014
2-Aug-14 World View -- Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction

Web Log - August, 2014

2-Aug-14 World View -- Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction

Tunisia closes border to foreigners fleeing Libya

This morning's key headlines from

Africans launch aid program as alarm increases over Ebola

Health workers wearing suits to protect themselves from Ebola (EPA)
Health workers wearing suits to protect themselves from Ebola (EPA)

Countries are closing borders in western Africa to try to stop the spread of the worst epidemic of the Ebola virus in history. The U.S. Peace Corps and other aid groups are evacuating their personnel. The World Health Organization (WHO) is launching a $100 million response plan, and the United States is providing material and technical support to Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea. WHO chief Margaret Chan told a meeting of presidents of western African countries, "The demands created by Ebola in West Africa outstrip your capacities to respond." Reuters

Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction

In yesterday's World View, I wrote that it didn't appear that Hamas had agreed that it was OK for Israel to continue destroying tunnels during the ceasefire, since it wasn't mentioned in the ceasefire announcement. And yes, that's exactly what happened. Apparently the negotiating geniuses John Kerry and Ban Ki-moon didn't bother to get agreement on this point, and left Israel to assume that they could continue destroying tunnels, and left Hamas to to assume that they couldn't.

Anyway, the ceasefire has been a disaster. Israel's army kept destroying tunnels. Suicide bombers popped out of one hidden tunnels, and killed two soldiers. Then, a team popped out of another tunnel, grabbed an Israeli soldier, Hadar Goldin, and dragged him back into the tunnel. The ceasefire ended in 90 minutes.

A kidnapped soldier is Israel's worst nightmare. Reports indicate that the army plans to "flatten" the entire area where the soldier might be held, even if it risks the soldier's life. In fact, Hamas is denying that it abducted anyone, and suggests that the soldier is dead, which is what some Israelis would prefer to an abduction.

So it's being called a "game-changer," with good reason. First, any kind of negotiations are now impossible, since Hamas would use the kidnapped soldier as a bargaining chip, which would be intolerable to Israel. Second, the already growing nationalism of Israel's (Jewish) population is soaring again, and the segment of the population that wants to see Israel's army crush Hamas is also growing. Third, this is an enormous psychological and political victory for Hamas, which Palestinians are celebrating, and leads many Palestinians to believe that Hamas has the upper hand and will win the war.

I wrote yesterday that the Palestinians and the Israelis agree on one thing: No return to the status quo ante. That was true yesterday, and even more true today. BBC

Mainstream analysts suddenly realize that this time it's different

For the last few weeks I've been reading analyst reports predicting a ceasefire within a few days, just as there was in the 2008-9 and 2012 Gaza wars. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the difference between those wars and the current one is that the younger generations in both Gaza and Israel are less willing to compromise. It's been 66 years since the genocidal 1948 war between Arabs and Jews that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel, so there are almost no survivors left who remember the horrors of the 1948 war. On a purely statistical basis, most new crisis wars begin about 58 years after the end of the previous crisis war, and each additional year makes a new crisis war more likely. 66 years is a statistically high interval.

Mainstream analysts are pointing to several significant reasons why "this time it's different." One of the main ones is that this is no longer a war between Israel and Hamas. Instead it's a proxy war that's split the nations of the Mideast down the middle. Turkey, Qatar, Iran and Hezbollah are solid supporters of Hamas, while Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority are supporters of Israel. In the past, Egypt served as a mediator that both sides trusted, but no such mediator exists today.

As I've written many times in the last decade, Arabs and Jews are headed for a new genocidal crisis war, refighting the 1948 war, with a result that may not be favorable to Israel. It might spiral out of the current war, or it might happen in one year, two years or three years. At this moment, it's beginning to look more and more like the time is now. CNN and PRI

Tunisia closes border to foreigners fleeing Libya

As the civil war violence in Tripoli, Libya, continues, thousands of foreign nationals living in and around Tripoli are trying to escape through Tunisia. But Tunisia has now closed the border, following an attempt to storm the border by "a massive number of people of different nationalities," according to Tunisian authorities, who said that there were "suspicious elements," including a large number of Egyptians without visas. In an attempt to restore order at one border crossing, Tunisian border guards fired into the air. Libyan guards on the other side of the border, thinking the Tunisians were firing at them, shot back, wounding the Tunisian head of security. Libya Herald and Khaleej Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Aug-14 World View -- Gaza ceasefire collapses with 'game changer' abduction thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Aug-2014) Permanent Link
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